Combining statistical techniques to predict post-surgical risk of 1-year mortality for patients with colon cancer

Introduction: Colorectal cancer is one of the most frequently diagnosed malignancies and a common cause of cancer-related mortality. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a clinical predictive model for1-year mortality among patients with colon cancer who survive for at least 30 days after surgery. Methods: Patients diagnosed with colon cancer who had surgery for the first time and who survived 30 days after the surgery were selected prospectively. The outcome was mortality within 1 year. Random forest, genetic algorithms and classification and regression trees were combined in order to identify the variables and partition points that optimally classify patients by risk of mortality. The resulting decision tree was categorized into four risk categories. Split-sample and bootstrap validation were performed. Results: A total of 1945 patients were enrolled in the study. The variables identified as the main predictors of 1-year mortality were presence of residual tumour, ASA risk score, pathological tumour staging, Charlson comorbidity index, intraoperative complications, adjuvant chemotherapy and recurrence of tumour. The model was internally validated; the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.896 in the derivation sample and 0.835 in the validation sample. Risk categorization leads to AUC values of 0.875 and 0.832 in the derivation and validation samples, respectively. Optimal cut-off point of estimated risk had a sensitivity of 0.889 and a specificity of 0.758. Conclusions: The decision-tree was a simple, interpretable, valid and accurate prediction rule of 1-year mortality among colon cancer patients who survived for at least 30 days after surgery.Instituto de Salud Carlos III (PS09/00314, PS09/00910, PS09/00746, PS09/00805, PI09/90460, PI09/90490, PI09/90453, PI09/90441, PI09/90397 and the thematic networks REDISSEC - Red de Investigación en Servicios de Salud en Enfermedades Crónicas), co-funded by European Regional Development Fund/European Social Fund (ERDF/ESF "Investing in your future"); Research Committee of the Hospital Galdakao Department of Health and the Department of Education, Language Policy and Culture from the Basque Government (2010111098, IT620-13) MINECO and FEDER (MTM2013-40941-P, MTM2016-74931-P)

Five-year follow-up mortality prognostic index for colorectal patients

Correction to: Five-year follow-up mortality prognostic index for colorectal patients. Int J Colorectal Dis. 2023 Jun 24;38(1):177. doi: 10.1007/s00384-023-04472-z. PMID: 37354325.Purpose: To identify 5-year survival prognostic variables in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) and to propose a survival prognostic score that also takes into account changes over time in the patient's health-related quality of life (HRQoL) status. Methods: Prospective observational cohort study of CRC patients. We collected data from their diagnosis, intervention, and at 1, 2, 3, and 5 years following the index intervention, also collecting HRQoL data using the EuroQol-5D-5L (EQ-5D-5L), European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer's Quality of Life Questionnaire-Core 30 (EORTC-QLQ-C30), and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) questionnaires. Multivariate Cox proportional models were used. Results: We found predictors of mortality over the 5-year follow-up to be being older; being male; having a higher TNM stage; having a higher lymph node ratio; having a result of CRC surgery classified as R1 or R2; invasion of neighboring organs; having a higher score on the Charlson comorbidity index; having an ASA IV; and having worse scores, worse quality of life, on the EORTC and EQ-5D questionnaires, as compared to those with higher scores in each of those questionnaires respectively. Conclusions: These results allow preventive and controlling measures to be established on long-term follow-up of these patients, based on a few easily measurable variables. Implications for cancer survivors: Patients with colorectal cancer should be monitored more closely depending on the severity of their disease and comorbidities as well as the perceived health-related quality of life, and preventive measures should be established to prevent adverse outcomes and therefore to ensure that better treatment is received. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02488161.Open Access funding provided thanks to the CRUE-CSIC agreement with Springer Nature. This work was supported in part by grants from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III and the European Regional Development Fund (PS09/00314, PS09/00910, PS09/00746, PS09/00805, PI09/90460, PI09/90490, PI09/90453, PI09/90441, PI09/90397); the Spanish Ministry of the Economy (PID2020-115738 GB-I00); the Departments of Health (2010111098) and Education, Language Policy and Culture (IT1456-22; IT1598-22; IT-1187–19) of the Basque Government; the Research Committee of Galdakao Hospital; the REDISSEC (Red de Investigación en Servicios de Salud en Enfermedades Crónicas) thematic network of the Instituto de Salud Carlos III; and the Department of Education of the Basque Government through the Consolidated Research Group MATHMODE (IT1456-22) and the Basque Government through BMTF “Mathematical Modeling Applied to Health” Project.S

Anxiety, depression, health-related quality of life, and mortality among colorectal patients: 5-year follow-up

Purpose Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) measurement represents an important outcome in cancer patients. We describe the evolution of HRQoL over a 5-year period in colorectal cancer patients, identifying predictors of change and how they relate to mortality. Methods Prospective observational cohort study including colorectal cancer (CRC) patients having undergone surgery in nineteen public hospitals who were monitored from their diagnosis, intervention and at 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year periods thereafter by gathering HRQoL data using the EuroQol-5D-5L (EQ-5D-5L), European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer's Quality of Life Questionnaire-Core 30 (EORTC-QLQ-C30), and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) questionnaires. Multivariable generalized linear mixed models were used. Results Predictors of Euroqol-5D-5L (EQ-5D-5L) changes were having worse baseline HRQoL; being female; higher Charlson index score (more comorbidities); complications during admission and 1 month after surgery; having a stoma after surgery; and needing or being in receipt of social support at baseline. For EORTC-QLQ-C30, predictors of changes were worse baseline EORTC-QLQ-C30 score; being female; higher Charlson score; complications during admission and 1 month after admission; receiving adjuvant chemotherapy; and having a family history of CRC. Predictors of changes in HADS anxiety were being female and having received adjuvant chemotherapy. Greater depression was associated with greater baseline depression; being female; higher Charlson score; having complications 1 month after intervention; and having a stoma. A deterioration in all HRQoL questionnaires in the previous year was related to death in the following year. Conclusions These findings should enable preventive follow-up programs to be established for such patients in order to reduce their psychological distress and improve their HRQoL to as great an extent as possible.Open Access funding provided thanks to the CRUE-CSIC agreement with Springer Nature. This work was supported in part by grants from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III and the European Regional Development Fund (PS09/00314, PS09/00910, PS09/00746, PS09/00805, PI09/90460, PI09/90490, PI09/90453, PI09/90441, PI09/90397); the Departments of Health (2010111098) and Education, Language Policy and Culture (IT620-13) of the Basque Government; the Research Committee of Hospital Galdakao; and the thematic network-REDISSEC (Red de Investigacion en Servicios de Salud en Enfermedades Cronicas)-of the Instituto de Salud Carlos III

Predictors of one and two years' mortality in patients with colon cancer: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Tools to aid in the prognosis assessment of colon cancer patients in terms of risk of mortality are needed. Goals of this study are to develop and validate clinical prediction rules for 1- and 2-year mortality in these patients. METHODS: This is a prospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with colon cancer who underwent surgery at 22 hospitals. The main outcomes were mortality at 1 and 2 years after surgery. Background, clinical parameters, and diagnostic tests findings were evaluated as possible predictors. Multivariable multilevel logistic regression and survival models were used in the analyses to create the clinical prediction rules. Models developed in the derivation sample were validated in another sample of the study. RESULTS: American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification System (ASA), Charlson comorbidity index (> = 4), age (>75 years), residual tumor (R2), TNM stage IV and log of lymph nodes ratio (> = -0.53) were predictors of 1-year mortality (C-index (95% CI): 0.865 (0.792-0.938)). Adjuvant chemotherapy was an additional predictor. Again ASA, Charlson Index (> = 4), age (>75 years), log of lymph nodes ratio (> = -0.53), TNM, and residual tumor were predictors of 2-year mortality (C-index:0.821 (0.766-0.876). Chemotherapy was also an additional predictor. CONCLUSIONS: These clinical prediction rules show very good predictive abilities of one and two years survival and provide clinicians and patients with an easy and quick-to-use decision tool for use in the clinical decision process while the patient is still in the index admission.This work was supported in part by grants from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III and by the European Regional Development Funds-ERDF (PS09/00314, PS09/00910, PS09/00746, PS09/00805, PI09/90460, PI09/90490, PI09/90453, PI09/90441, PI09/90397); Department of Health of the Basque Country (2010111098); the Research Committee of the Hospital Galdakao; and the thematic networks REDISSEC (Red de Investigación en Servicios de Salud en Enfermedades Crónicas)-of the Instituto de Salud Carlos III RD12/0001/0001 and Education, Politic Linguistic and Culture of the Basque Government IT620-13. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.S

Risk scores to predict mortality 2 and 5 years after surgery for colorectal cancer in elderly patients

Background: the aim of this study was to identify predictors of mortality in elderly patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery and to develop a risk score. Methods: this was an observational prospective cohort study. Individuals over 80 years diagnosed with colorectal cancer and treated surgically were recruited in 18 hospitals in the Spanish National Health Service, between June 2010 and December 2012, and were followed up 1, 2, 3, and 5 years after surgery. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected. The primary outcomes were mortality at 2 and between 2 and 5 years after the index admission. Results: the predictors of mortality 2 years after surgery were haemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dl and colon locations (HR 1.02; CI 0.51-2.02), ASA class of IV (HR 3.55; CI 1.91-6.58), residual tumour classification of R2 (HR 7.82; CI 3.11-19.62), TNM stage of III (HR 2.14; CI 1.23-3.72) or IV (HR 3.21; CI 1.47-7), LODDS of more than - 0.53 (HR 3.08; CI 1.62-5.86)) and complications during admission (HR 1.73; CI 1.07-2.80). Between 2 and 5 years of follow-up, the predictors were no tests performed within the first year of follow-up (HR 2.58; CI 1.21-5.46), any complication due to the treatment within the 2 years of follow-up (HR 2.47; CI 1.27-4.81), being between 85 and 89 and not having radiotherapy within the second year of follow-up (HR 1.60; CI 1.01-2.55), no colostomy closure within the 2 years of follow-up (HR 4.93; CI 1.48-16.41), medical complications (HR 1.61; CI 1.06-2.44), tumour recurrence within the 2 years of follow-up period (HR 3.19; CI 1.96-5.18), and readmissions at 1 or 2 years of follow-up after surgery (HR 1.44; CI 0.86-2.41). Conclusion: we have identified variables that, in our sample, predict mortality 2 and between 2 and 5 years after surgery for colorectal cancer older patients. We have also created risks scores, which could support the decision-making process

Effect of comorbidities on long-term outcomes of colorectal cancer patients.

The objective of this work is to evaluate the association of comorbidities with various outcomes in patients diagnosed with colon or rectal cancer. We conducted a prospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with colon or rectal cancer who underwent surgery. Data were gathered on sociodemographic, clinical characteristics, disease course, and the EuroQol EQ-5D and EORTC QLQ-C30 scores, up to 5 years after surgery. The main outcomes of the study were mortality, complications, readmissions, reoperations, and changes in PROMs up to 5 years. Multivariable multilevel logistic regression models were used in the analyses. Mortality at some point during the 5-year follow-up was related to cardiocerebrovascular, hemiplegia and/or stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes, cancer, and dementia. Similarly, complications were related to cardiovascular disease, COPD, diabetes, hepatitis, hepatic or renal pathologies, and dementia; readmissions to cardiovascular disease, COPD, and hepatic pathologies; and reoperations to cerebrovascular and diabetes. Finally, changes in EQ-5D scores at some point during follow-up were related to cardiocerebrovascular disease, COPD, diabetes, pre-existing cancer, hepatic and gastrointestinal pathologies, and changes in EORTC QLQ-C30 scores to cardiovascular disease, COPD, diabetes, and hepatic and gastrointestinal pathologies. Optimising the management of the comorbidities most strongly related to adverse outcomes may help to reduce those events in these patients