An accurate test for homogeneity of odds ratios based on Cochran's Q-statistic

Background: A frequently used statistic for testing homogeneity in a meta-analysis of K independent studies is Cochran's Q. For a standard test of homogeneity the Q statistic is referred to a chi-square distribution with K - 1 degrees of freedom. For the situation in which the effects of the studies are logarithms of odds ratios, the chi-square distribution is much too conservative for moderate size studies, although it may be asymptotically correct as the individual studies become large. Methods: Using a mixture of theoretical results and simulations, we provide formulas to estimate the shape and scale parameters of a gamma distribution to t the distribution of Q. Results: Simulation studies show that the gamma distribution is a good approximation to the distribution for Q. Conclusions: : Use of the gamma distribution instead of the chi-square distribution for Q should eliminate inaccurate inferences in assessing homogeneity in a meta-analysis. (A computer program for implementing this test is provided.) This hypothesis test is competitive with the Breslow-Day test both in accuracy of level and in power

Chromogranin A, a significant prognostic factor in small cell lung cancer

Chromogranin A (CgA) is a protein present in neuroendocrine vesicles. Small cell lung cancer (SCLC) is considered a neuroendocrine tumour. It is possible to demonstrate CgA expression in SCLC by immunohistochemical methods. Since CgA is released to the circulation it might also work as a clinical tumour marker. We used a newly developed two-site enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for CgA in plasma from 150 newly diagnosed patients with SCLC. Follow-up was for a minimum of 5 years. Thirty-seven per cent of the patients had elevated pretreatment values and the values were significantly related to stage of disease. Multivariable analysis by Cox's proportional hazard model including nine known prognostic factors disclosed performance status as the most influential prognostic factor followed by stage of disease, CgA and LDH. A simple prognostic index (PI) could be established based on these four pretreatment features. In this way the patients could be separated into three groups with significant different prognosis. The median survival and 95% confidence intervals for the three groups were as follows: 424 days (311–537), 360 days (261–459) and 174 days (105–243). © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Visualizing Rank Deficient Models: A Row Equation Geometry of Rank Deficient Matrices and Constrained-Regression

Situations often arise in which the matrix of independent variables is not of full column rank. That is, there are one or more linear dependencies among the independent variables. This paper covers in detail the situation in which the rank is one less than full column rank and extends this coverage to include cases of even greater rank deficiency. The emphasis is on the row geometry of the solutions based on the normal equations. The author shows geometrically how constrained-regression/generalized-inverses work in this situation to provide a solution in the face of rank deficiency

Ovarian cancer histology-specific incidence trends in Canada 1969–1993: age-period-cohort analyses

This study examined histology-specific incidence trends of ovarian cancer in Canada, 1969–1993. The impact of age, period and cohort effects on these trends were studied by means of age-period-cohort analysis. Age-standardized incidence rates of serous, endometrioid, clear cell and germ cell tumours increased significantly and the rates of sex cord-stromal and other classified epithelial ovarian tumours decreased considerably. The rates of mucinous and NOS/unclassified tumours remained unchanged. Cohort effect has a major impact on incidence trends of serous, endometrioid, germ cell, sex cord-stromal and other classified epithelial ovarian tumours but no meaningful impact on trends of mucinous, clear cell, or NOS/unclassified ovarian tumours. Various cohort patterns by histology subtypes were observed: the risk of developing serious tumours increased markedly among birth cohorts of 1895–1930, stabilized thereafter and decreased among young cohorts of 1950–1960; the risk of germ cell tumours increased significantly among young cohorts of 1965–1980; and the risk of sex cord-stromal tumours dropped constantly among cohorts 1910–1950. Various period patterns by histology subtypes observed in this study suggested changes in histology classification criteria over the period. Further studies need to consider the various etiologies and the classification criteria changes according to histology subtypes. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Do multiple outcome measures require p-value adjustment?

BACKGROUND: Readers may question the interpretation of findings in clinical trials when multiple outcome measures are used without adjustment of the p-value. This question arises because of the increased risk of Type I errors (findings of false "significance") when multiple simultaneous hypotheses are tested at set p-values. The primary aim of this study was to estimate the need to make appropriate p-value adjustments in clinical trials to compensate for a possible increased risk in committing Type I errors when multiple outcome measures are used. DISCUSSION: The classicists believe that the chance of finding at least one test statistically significant due to chance and incorrectly declaring a difference increases as the number of comparisons increases. The rationalists have the following objections to that theory: 1) P-value adjustments are calculated based on how many tests are to be considered, and that number has been defined arbitrarily and variably; 2) P-value adjustments reduce the chance of making type I errors, but they increase the chance of making type II errors or needing to increase the sample size. SUMMARY: Readers should balance a study's statistical significance with the magnitude of effect, the quality of the study and with findings from other studies. Researchers facing multiple outcome measures might want to either select a primary outcome measure or use a global assessment measure, rather than adjusting the p-value

Age-period-cohort modelling of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence in a French region: a period effect compatible with an environmental exposure

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The incidence of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) has risen steadily during the last few decades in all geographic regions covered by cancer registration for reasons that remain unknown. The aims of this study were to assess the relative contributions of age, period and cohort effects to NHL incidence patterns and therefore to provide clues to explain the increasing incidence.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Population and NHL incidence data were provided for the Doubs region (France) during the 1980-2005 period. NHL counts and person-years were tabulated into one-year classes by age (from 20 to 89) and calendar time period. Age-period-cohort models with parametric smooth functions (natural splines) were fitted to the data by assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed number of NHL cases.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The age-standardised incidence rate increased from 4.7 in 1980 to 11.9 per 100,000 person-years at risk in 1992 (corresponding to a 2.5-fold increase) and stabilised afterwards (11.1 per 100,000 in 2005). Age effects showed a steadily increasing slope up to the age of 80 and levelled off for older ages. Large period curvature effects, both adjusted for cohort effects and non-adjusted (p < 10^-4and p < 10^-5, respectively), showed departure from linear periodic trends; period effects jumped markedly in 1983 and stabilised in 1992 after a 2.4-fold increase (compared to the 1980 period). In both the age-period-cohort model and the age-cohort model, cohort curvature effects were not statistically significant (p = 0.46 and p = 0.08, respectively).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The increased NHL incidence in the Doubs region is mostly dependent on factors associated with age and calendar periods instead of cohorts. We found evidence for a levelling off in both incidence rates and period effects beginning in 1992. It is unlikely that the changes in classification (which occurred after 1995) and the improvements of diagnostic accuracy could largely account for the 1983-1992 period-effect increase, giving way to an increased exposure to widely distributed risk factors including persistent organic pollutants and pesticides. Continued NHL incidence and careful analysis of period effects are of utmost importance to elucidate the enigmatic epidemiology of NHL.</p

Recent changes in breast cancer incidence and risk factor prevalence in San Francisco Bay area and California women: 1988 to 2004

IntroductionHistorically, the incidence rate of breast cancer among non-Hispanic white women living in the San Francisco Bay area (SFBA) of California has been among the highest in the world. Substantial declines in breast cancer incidence rates have been documented in the United States and elsewhere during recent years. In light of these reports, we examined recent changes in breast cancer incidence and risk factor prevalence among non-Hispanic white women in the SFBA and other regions of California.MethodsAnnual age-adjusted breast cancer incidence and mortality rates (1988 to 2004) were obtained from the California Cancer Registry and analyzed using Joinpoint regression. Population-based risk factor prevalences were calculated using two data sources: control subjects from four case-control studies (1989 to 1999) and the 2001 and 2003 California Health Interview Surveys.ResultsIn the SFBA, incidence rates of invasive breast cancer increased 1.3% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7% to 2.0%) in 1988-1999 and decreased 3.6% per year (95% CI, 1.6% to 5.6%) in 1999-2004. In other regions of California, incidence rates of invasive breast cancer increased 0.8% per year (95% CI, 0.4% to 1.1%) in 1988-2001 and decreased 4.4% per year (95% CI, 1.4% to 7.3%) in 2001-2004. In both regions, recent (2000-2001 to 2003-2004) decreases in invasive breast cancer occurred only in women 40 years old or older and in women with all histologic subtypes and tumor sizes, hormone receptor-defined types, and all stages except distant disease. Mortality rates declined 2.2% per year (95% CI, 1.8% to 2.6%) from 1988 to 2004 in the SFBA and the rest of California. Use of estrogen-progestin hormone therapy decreased significantly from 2001 to 2003 in both regions. In 2003-2004, invasive breast cancer incidence remained higher (4.2%) in the SFBA than in the rest of California, consistent with the higher distributions of many established risk factors, including advanced education, nulliparity, late age at first birth, and alcohol consumption.ConclusionOngoing surveillance of breast cancer occurrence patterns in this high-risk population informs breast cancer etiology through comparison of trends with lower-risk populations and by highlighting the importance of examining how broad migration patterns influence the geographic distribution of risk factors