Improved maximum likelihood estimators in a heteroskedastic errors-in-variables model

This paper develops a bias correction scheme for a multivariate heteroskedastic errors-in-variables model. The applicability of this model is justified in areas such as astrophysics, epidemiology and analytical chemistry, where the variables are subject to measurement errors and the variances vary with the observations. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the performance of the corrected estimators. The numerical results show that the bias correction scheme yields nearly unbiased estimates. We also give an application to a real data set.Comment: 12 pages. Statistical Paper

The circadian rhythm of corticosteroid-binding globulin has little impact on cortisol exposure after hydrocortisone dosing

CONTEXT: Optimisation of hydrocortisone replacement therapy is important to prevent under- and over dosing. Hydrocortisone pharmacokinetics is complex as circulating cortisol is protein bound mainly to corticosteroid-binding globulin (CBG) that has a circadian rhythm. OBJECTIVE: A detailed analysis of the CBG circadian rhythm and its impact on cortisol exposure after hydrocortisone administration. DESIGN AND METHODS: CBG was measured over 24 h in 14 healthy individuals and, employing a modelling and simulation approach using a semi-mechanistic hydrocortisone pharmacokinetic model, we evaluated the impact on cortisol exposure (area under concentration-time curve and maximum concentration of total cortisol) of hydrocortisone administration at different clock times and of the changing CBG concentrations. RESULTS: The circadian rhythm of CBG was well described with two cosine terms added to the baseline of CBG: baseline CBG was 21.8 μg/mL and inter-individual variability 11.9%; the amplitude for the 24 h and 12 h cosine functions were relatively small (24 h: 5.53%, 12 h: 2.87%) and highest and lowest CBG were measured at 18:00 and 02:00, respectively. In simulations, the lowest cortisol exposure was observed after administration of hydrocortisone at 23:00-02:00, whereas the highest was observed at 15:00-18:00. The differences between the highest and lowest exposure were minor (≤12.2%), also regarding the free cortisol concentration and free fraction (≤11.7%). CONCLUSIONS: CBG has a circadian rhythm but the difference in cortisol exposure is ≤12.2% between times of highest and lowest CBG concentrations; therefore hydrocortisone dose adjustment based on time of dosing to adjust for the CBG concentrations is unlikely to be of clinical benefit

A latent trait approach to measuring HIV/AIDS related stigma in healthcare professionals: application of mokken scaling technique

The attitudes of healthcare professionals towards HIV positive patients and high risk groups are central to the quality of care and therefore to the management of HIV/AIDS related stigma in health settings. Extant HIV/AIDS stigma scales that measure stigmatising attitudes towards people living with HIV/AIDS have been developed using scaling techniques such as principal component analysis. This approach has resulted in instruments that are often long. Mokken scale analysis is a nonparametric hierarchical scaling technique that can be used to develop unidimensional cumulative scales. This technique is advantageous over the other approaches; as the scales are usually shorter, while retaining acceptable psychometric properties. Moreover, Mokken scales also make no distributional assumptions about the underlying data, other than that the data are capable of being ordered by item and by person. In this study we aimed at developing a precise and concise measure of HIV/AIDS related stigma among health care professionals, using Mokken scale analysis

Threat-sensitive anti-predator defence in precocial wader, the northern lapwing Vanellus vanellus

Birds exhibit various forms of anti-predator behaviours to avoid reproductive failure, with mobbing—observation, approach and usually harassment of a predator—being one of the most commonly observed. Here, we investigate patterns of temporal variation in the mobbing response exhibited by a precocial species, the northern lapwing (Vanellus vanellus). We test whether brood age and self-reliance, or the perceived risk posed by various predators, affect mobbing response of lapwings. We quantified aggressive interactions between lapwings and their natural avian predators and used generalized additive models to test how timing and predator species identity are related to the mobbing response of lapwings. Lapwings diversified mobbing response within the breeding season and depending on predator species. Raven Corvus corax, hooded crow Corvus cornix and harriers evoked the strongest response, while common buzzard Buteo buteo, white stork Ciconia ciconia, black-headed gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus and rook Corvus frugilegus were less frequently attacked. Lapwings increased their mobbing response against raven, common buzzard, white stork and rook throughout the breeding season, while defence against hooded crow, harriers and black-headed gull did not exhibit clear temporal patterns. Mobbing behaviour of lapwings apparently constitutes a flexible anti-predator strategy. The anti-predator response depends on predator species, which may suggest that lapwings distinguish between predator types and match mobbing response to the perceived hazard at different stages of the breeding cycle. We conclude that a single species may exhibit various patterns of temporal variation in anti-predator defence, which may correspond with various hypotheses derived from parental investment theory

Immediate chest X-ray for patients at risk of lung cancer presenting in primary care: randomised controlled feasibility trial

Background: Achieving earlier stage diagnosis is one option for improving lung cancer outcomes in the United Kingdom. Patients with lung cancer typically present with symptoms to general practitioners several times before referral or investigation. Methods: We undertook a mixed methods feasibility individually randomised controlled trial (the ELCID trial) to assess the feasibility and inform the design of a definitive, fully powered, UK-wide, Phase III trial of lowering the threshold for urgent investigation of suspected lung cancer. Patients over 60, with a smoking history, presenting with new chest symptoms to primary care, were eligible to be randomised to intervention (urgent chest X-ray) or usual care. Results: The trial design and materials were acceptable to GPs and patients. We randomised 255 patients from 22 practices, although the proportion of eligible patients who participated was lower than expected. Survey responses (89%), and the fidelity of the intervention (82% patients X-rayed within 3 weeks) were good. There was slightly higher anxiety and depression in the control arm in participants aged >75. Three patients (1.2%) were diagnosed with lung cancer. Conclusions: We have demonstrated the feasibility of individually randomising patients at higher risk of lung cancer, to a trial offering urgent investigation or usual care

Evaluating methods for ranking differentially expressed genes applied to microArray quality control data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Statistical methods for ranking differentially expressed genes (DEGs) from gene expression data should be evaluated with regard to high sensitivity, specificity, and reproducibility. In our previous studies, we evaluated eight gene ranking methods applied to only Affymetrix GeneChip data. A more general evaluation that also includes other microarray platforms, such as the Agilent or Illumina systems, is desirable for determining which methods are suitable for each platform and which method has better inter-platform reproducibility.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We compared the eight gene ranking methods using the MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC) datasets produced by five manufacturers: Affymetrix, Applied Biosystems, Agilent, GE Healthcare, and Illumina. The area under the curve (AUC) was used as a measure for both sensitivity and specificity. Although the highest AUC values can vary with the definition of "true" DEGs, the best methods were, in most cases, either the weighted average difference (WAD), rank products (RP), or intensity-based moderated <it>t </it>statistic (ibmT). The percentages of overlapping genes (POGs) across different test sites were mainly evaluated as a measure for both intra- and inter-platform reproducibility. The POG values for WAD were the highest overall, irrespective of the choice of microarray platform. The high intra- and inter-platform reproducibility of WAD was also observed at a higher biological function level.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These results for the five microarray platforms were consistent with our previous ones based on 36 real experimental datasets measured using the Affymetrix platform. Thus, recommendations made using the MAQC benchmark data might be universally applicable.</p

Genetic variation in TIMP1 but not MMPs predict excess FEV1 decline in two general population-based cohorts

BACKGROUND: An imbalance in matrix metalloproteases (MMPs) and tissue inhibitors of MMPs (TIMPs) contributes to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) development. Longitudinal studies investigating Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) in MMPs and TIMPs with respect to COPD development and lung function decline in the general population are lacking. METHODS: We genotyped SNPs in MMP1 (G-1607GG), MMP2 (-1306 C/T), MMP9 (3 tagging SNPs), MMP12 (A-82G and Asn357Ser) and TIMP1 (Phe124Phe and Ile158Ile) in 1390 Caucasians with multiple FEV1 measurements from a prospective cohort study in the general population. FEV1 decline was analyzed using linear mixed effect models adjusted for confounders. Analyses of the X-chromosomal TIMP1 gene were stratified according to sex. All significant associations were repeated in an independent general population cohort (n=1152). RESULTS: MMP2 -1306 TT genotype carriers had excess FEV1 decline (-4.0 ml/yr, p=0.03) compared to wild type carriers. TIMP1 Ile158Ile predicted significant excess FEV1 decline in both males and females. TIMP1 Phe124Phe predicted significant excess FEV1 decline in males only, which was replicated (p=0.10) in the second cohort. The MMP2 and TIMP1 Ile158Ile associations were not replicated. Although power was limited, we did not find associations with COPD development. CONCLUSIONS: We for the first time show that TIMP1 Phe124Phe contributes to excess FEV1 decline in two independent prospective cohorts, albeit not quite reaching conventional statistical significance in the replication cohort. SNPs in MMPs evidently do not contribute to FEV1 decline in the general population

A comparison of probe-level and probeset models for small-sample gene expression data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Statistical methods to tentatively identify differentially expressed genes in microarray studies typically assume larger sample sizes than are practical or even possible in some settings.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The performance of several probe-level and probeset models was assessed graphically and numerically using three spike-in datasets. Based on the Affymetrix GeneChip, a novel nested factorial model was developed and found to perform competitively on small-sample spike-in experiments.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Statistical methods with test statistics related to the estimated log fold change tend to be more consistent in their performance on small-sample gene expression data. For such small-sample experiments, the nested factorial model can be a useful statistical tool. This method is implemented in freely-available R code (affyNFM), available with a tutorial document at <url>http://www.stat.usu.edu/~jrstevens</url>.</p