The disproportionate case–fatality ratio of COVID-19 between countries with the highest vaccination rates and the rest of the world

Objectives: The global reported cumulative case–fatality ratios (rCFRs) and excess mortality rates of the 20 countries with the highest coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination rates, the rest of the world and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) were compared before and after the commencement of vaccination programmes. Methods: A time series model was used to understand the trend of rCFR over time, and a generalized linear mixed model was used to understand the effect of vaccination on rCFR. Results: By 31 December 2022, an average of 260.3 doses of COVID-19 vaccine per 100 population had been administered in the top 20 vaccinated countries, compared with 152.1 doses in the rest of the world and 51.2 doses in SSA. The mean rCFR of COVID-19 had decreased by 69.0% in the top 20 vaccinated countries, 26.5% in the rest of the world and 7.6% in SSA. Excess mortality had decreased by 48.7% in the top 20 vaccinated countries, compared with 62.5% in the rest of the world and 60.7% in SSA. In a generalized linear mixed model, the reported number of vaccine doses administered (/100 population) (odds ratio 0.64) was associated with a steeper reduction in COVID-19 rCFR. Conclusions: Vaccine equity and faster roll-out across the world is critically important in reducing COVID-19 transmission and CFR

The Global Case-Fatality Rate of COVID-19 Has Been Declining Since May 2020

Abstract.The objective of this study was to evaluate the trend of reported case fatality rate (rCFR) of COVID-19 over time, using globally reported COVID-19 cases and mortality data. We collected daily COVID-19 diagnoses and mortality data from the WHO’s daily situation reports dated January 1 to December 31, 2020. We performed three time-series models [simple exponential smoothing, auto-regressive integrated moving average, and automatic forecasting time-series (Prophet)] to identify the global trend of rCFR for COVID-19. We used beta regression models to investigate the association between the rCFR and potential predictors of each country and reported incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of each variable. The weekly global cumulative COVID-19 rCFR reached a peak at 7.23% during the 17th week (April 22–28, 2020). We found a positive and increasing trend for global daily rCFR values of COVID-19 until the 17th week (pre-peak period) and then a strong declining trend up until the 53rd week (post-peak period) toward 2.2% (December 29–31, 2020). In pre-peak of rCFR, the percentage of people aged 65 and above and the prevalence of obesity were significantly associated with the COVID-19 rCFR. The declining trend of global COVID-19 rCFR was not merely because of increased COVID-19 testing, because COVID-19 tests per 1,000 population had poor predictive value. Decreasing rCFR could be explained by an increased rate of infection in younger people or by the improvement of health care management, shielding from infection, and/or repurposing of several drugs that had shown a beneficial effect on reducing fatality because of COVID-19.</jats:p

Image Analysis Enhanced Event Detection from Geo-tagged Tweet Streams

Events detected from social media streams often include early signs of accidents, crimes or disasters. Therefore, they can be used by related parties for timely and efficient response. Although significant progress has been made on event detection from tweet streams, most existing methods have not considered the posted images in tweets, which provide richer information than the text, and potentially can be a reliable indicator of whether an event occurs or not. In this paper, we design an event detection algorithm that combines textual, statistical and image information, following an unsupervised machine learning approach. Specifically, the algorithm starts with semantic and statistical analyses to obtain a list of tweet clusters, each of which corresponds to an event candidate, and then performs image analysis to separate events from non-events---a convolutional autoencoder is trained for each cluster as an anomaly detector, where a part of the images are used as the training data and the remaining images are used as the test instances. Our experiments on multiple datasets verify that when an event occurs, the mean reconstruction errors of the training and test images are much closer, compared with the case where the candidate is a non-event cluster. Based on this finding, the algorithm rejects a candidate if the difference is larger than a threshold. Experimental results over millions of tweets demonstrate that this image analysis enhanced approach can significantly increase the precision with minimum impact on the recall.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Ultra-strong nonlinear optical processes and trigonal warping in MoS2 layers

Nonlinear optical processes, such as harmonic generation, are of great interest for various applications, e.g., microscopy, therapy, and frequency conversion. However, high-order harmonic conversion is typically much less efficient than low-order, due to the weak intrinsic response of the higher-order nonlinear processes. Here we report ultra-strong optical nonlinearities in monolayer MoS2 (1L-MoS2): the third harmonic is 30 times stronger than the second, and the fourth is comparable to the second. The third harmonic generation efficiency for 1L-MoS2 is approximately three times higher than that for graphene, which was reported to have a large χ (3). We explain this by calculating the nonlinear response functions of 1L-MoS2 with a continuum-model Hamiltonian and quantum mechanical diagrammatic perturbation theory, highlighting the role of trigonal warping. A similar effect is expected in all other transition-metal dichalcogenides. Our results pave the way for efficient harmonic generation based on layered materials for applications such as microscopy and imaging.We acknowledge funding from the Academy of Finland (Nos: 276376, 284548, 295777, 298297, and 304666), TEKES (NP-Nano, OPEC), Royal Academy of Engineering (RAEng) Research Fellowships, Fondazione Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia, the Graphene Flagship, ERC grants Hetero2D, Nokia Foundation, EPSRC Grants EP/K01711X/1, EP/K017144/1, EP/L016087/1, AFOSR COMAS MURI (FA9550-10-1-0558), ONR NECom MURI, CIAN NSF ERC under Grant EEC-0812072, and TRIF Photonics funding from the state of Arizona and the Micronova, Nanofabrication Centre of Aalto University

Expression of M. tuberculosis-induced suppressor of cytokine signaling (SOCS) 1, SOCS3, FoxP3 and secretion of IL-6 associates with differing clinical severity of tuberculosis

Background Appropriate immune activation of T cells and macrophages is central for the control of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infections. IFN-γ stimulated responses are lowered in tuberculosis (TB), while expression of Suppressor of Cytokine Signaling (SOCS) molecules – 1 and 3 and CD4+CD25+FoxP3+T regulatory cells is increased. Here we investigated the association of these molecules in regard to clinical severity of TB. Methods Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were isolated from patients with pulmonary TB (PTB, n = 33), extra-pulmonary TB (ETB, n = 33) and healthy endemic controls (EC, n = 15). Cases were classified as moderately advanced or far advanced PTB, and less severe or severe disseminated ETB. M. tuberculosis -stimulated IFN-γ, SOCS1, SOCS3 and FoxP3 gene expression and secretion of Th1 and Th2 cytokines was measured. Statistical analysis was performed using Mann–Whitney U, Wilcoxon Rank and Kruskal Wallis non-parametric tests. Results In un-stimulated PBMCs, IL-6 (p = 0.018) and IL-10 (p = 0.013) secretion levels were increased in PTB while IL-10 was also increased in ETB (p = 0.003), all in comparison with EC. M. tuberculosis-stimulated IL-6 (p = 0.003) was lowered in ETB as compared with EC. SOCS1 mRNA expression in M. tuberculosis stimulated PBMCs levels in moderately advanced PTB (p = 0.022), far advanced (p = 0.014) PTB, and severe ETB (p = 0.009) were raised as compared with EC. On the other hand, SOCS1 mRNA titers were reduced in less severe ETB, in comparison with severe ETB (p = 0.027) and far advanced PTB (p = 0.016). SOCS3 mRNA accumulation was reduced in far advanced PTB (p = 0.007) and FoxP3 mRNA expression was increased in less severe ETB as compared with EC (p = 0.017). Conclusions The lowered SOCS1 mRNA levels in patients with less severe extra-pulmonary TB as compared to those with more severe ETB and PTB may lead to elevated IFN-γ pathway gene expression in the latter group. As localized ETB has shown to be associated with more effective Th1 immunity and adaptive responses, this suggests a role for SOCS1 in determining disease outcome in extra-pulmonary TB

The disproportionate case-fatality ratio of COVID-19 between top vaccinated countries and the rest of the world

Objectives We compared the global reported cumulative case-fatality ratio (rCFR) and excess mortality between top-20 countries with COVID-19 vaccination rates, the rest of the world and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) before and after commencement of vaccination programmes. Methods We performed time series model to understand the trend of rCFR over time and performed generalized linear mixed model to understand role of vaccination on rCFR. Results By 31 December 2022, on average 260.3 doses of COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people had been administered in the top-20 vaccinated countries, compared to 152.1 doses in the rest of the world, and 51.2 in SSA. The mean rCFR of COVID-19 had dropped by 69.0% in the top in the top-20 vaccinated countries, 26.5% in the rest of the world and 7.6% in SSA. The excess mortality had dropped by 48.7% in top vaccinated countries compared to 62.5% in the rest of the world and 60.7% in SSA. In a generalized linear mixed model, reported number of vaccine doses administered doses (/100 population) (Odds ratio:0.64) was associated with a steeper reduction of the country's COVID-19 rCFR. Conclusions Vaccine equity and faster roll-out across the world is critically important in reducing COVID-19 transmission and CFR

Checklist of mangrove snails (Gastropoda: Mollusca) on the coast of Lamongan District, East Java, Indonesia

Mangroves are crucial transition zone ecosystems providing sheltered nursery zones and abundant marine and terrestrial biota resources. Mangrove snails (Gastropoda: Mollusca) are ecologically important ecosystem engineers, trophic links for higher predators, and a source of human food and livelihoods. Mangrove snails are also ideal bioindicators to monitor environmental pollution. A strong baseline understanding of current richness and distribution is therefore important. Thus, this study provides data on the species composition of mangrove snails on the north coast of Lamongan District, East Java, Indonesia. Sampling was conducted during low tide at four stations from September to November 2022 using square transects. Ten families consisted of Cerithiidae, Cypraeidae, Fasciolariidae, Muricidae, Naticadae, Neritidae, Plaxidae, Potamididae, Trochidae, and Turbinidae comprising 20 genera and 24 species. The most dominant family found is Muricidae, with six genera and eight species. Most mangrove snails were found in rocky, sandy substrates, around trees, and mangrove roots. Gastropods observed in this study were alive and dead (i.e., empty shells). We suspect that there is still much-hidden diversity of Gastropoda in this region. Therefore, we suggest that future work addresses differences in microhabitat and snail morphology with quantitative and semi-quantitative methods to understand distribution drivers and ecological roles better

Photonic Analogue of Two-dimensional Topological Insulators and Helical One-Way Edge Transport in Bi-Anisotropic Metamaterials

Recent progress in understanding the topological properties of condensed matter has led to the discovery of time-reversal invariant topological insulators. Because of limitations imposed by nature, topologically non-trivial electronic order seems to be uncommon except in small-band-gap semiconductors with strong spin-orbit interactions. In this Article we show that artificial electromagnetic structures, known as metamaterials, provide an attractive platform for designing photonic analogues of topological insulators. We demonstrate that a judicious choice of the metamaterial parameters can create photonic phases that support a pair of helical edge states, and that these edge states enable one-way photonic transport that is robust against disorder.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figure

Topological Photonics

Topology is revolutionizing photonics, bringing with it new theoretical discoveries and a wealth of potential applications. This field was inspired by the discovery of topological insulators, in which interfacial electrons transport without dissipation even in the presence of impurities. Similarly, new optical mirrors of different wave-vector space topologies have been constructed to support new states of light propagating at their interfaces. These novel waveguides allow light to flow around large imperfections without back-reflection. The present review explains the underlying principles and highlights the major findings in photonic crystals, coupled resonators, metamaterials and quasicrystals.Comment: progress and review of an emerging field, 12 pages, 6 figures and 1 tabl

Urgent referral for suspected CNS cancer: which clinical features are associated with a positive predictive value of 3 % or more?

Background Urgent referral for suspected central nervous system (CNS) cancer is recommended, but little analysis of the referral criteria diagnostic performance has been conducted. New 2015 NICE guidance recommends direct brain imaging for patients with symptoms with positive predictive values (PPV) of 3 %, but further guidance is needed. Methods A 12-month retrospective evaluation of 393 patients referred under previous 2005 NICE 2-week rule criteria was conducted. Analysis was based on the three groups of symptoms forming the referral criteria, (1) CNS symptoms, (2) recent onset headaches, (3) rapidly progressive subacute focal deficit/cognitive/behavioural/personality change. Comparison was made with neuroimaging findings. Results Twelve (3.1 %) of 383 patients who attended clinic had CNS cancer suggesting the combination of clinical judgement and application of 2005 criteria matched the 2015 guideline’s PPV threshold. PPVs for the three groups of symptoms were (1) 4.1 % (95 % CIs 2.0 to 7.4 %), (2) 1.2 % (0.1 to 4.3 %) and (3) 3.7 % (0.1 to 19.0 %). Sensitivities were (1) 83.3 % (95 % CIs 51.6 to 97.9 %), (2) 16.7 % (2.1 to 48.4 %), and (3) 8.3 % (0.2 to 38.5 %); specificities were (1) 37.2 % (32.3 to 42.3 %), (2) 55.5 % (50.3 to 60.7 %) and (3) 93.0 % (89.9 to 95.4 %). Of 288 patients who underwent neuroimaging, 59 (20.5 %) had incidental findings, most commonly cerebrovascular disease. Conclusions The 2015 guidance is less prescriptive than previous criteria making clinical judgement more important. CNS symptoms had greatest sensitivity, while PPVs for CNS symptoms and rapidly progressive subacute deficit/cognitive/behavioural/personality change were closest to 3 %. Recent onset headaches had the lowest sensitivity and PPV