SCORE2-OP risk prediction algorithms: estimating incident cardiovascular event risk in older persons in four geographical risk regions

Aims The aim of this study was to derive and validate the SCORE2-Older Persons (SCORE2-OP) risk model to estimate 5- and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals aged over 70 years in four geographical risk regions.Methods and results Sex-specific competing risk-adjusted models for estimating CVD risk (CVD mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke) were derived in individuals aged over 65 without pre-existing atherosclerotic CVD from the Cohort of Norway (28 503 individuals, 10 089 CVD events). Models included age, smoking status, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, and total- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Four geographical risk regions were defined based on country-specific CVD mortality rates. Models were recalibrated to each region using region-specific estimated CVD incidence rates and risk factor distributions. For external validation, we analysed data from 6 additional study populations {338 615 individuals, 33 219 CVD validation cohorts, C-indices ranged between 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61-0.65] and 0.67 (0.64-0.69)}. Regional calibration of expected-vs.-observed risks was satisfactory. For given risk factor profiles, there was substantial variation across the four risk regions in the estimated 10-year CVD event risk.Conclusions The competing risk-adjusted SCORE2-OP model was derived, recalibrated, and externally validated to estimate 5- and 10-year CVD risk in older adults (aged 70 years or older) in four geographical risk regions. These models can be used for communicating the risk of CVD and potential benefit from risk factor treatment and may facilitate shared decision-making between clinicians and patients in CVD risk management in older persons.Cardiolog

Development of a core descriptor set for Crohn's anal fistula

AIM: Crohn's anal fistula (CAF) is a complex condition, with no agreement on which patient characteristics should be routinely reported in studies. The aim of this study was to develop a core descriptor set of key patient characteristics for reporting in all CAF research. METHOD: Candidate descriptors were generated from published literature and stakeholder suggestions. Colorectal surgeons, gastroenterologists and specialist nurses in inflammatory bowel disease took part in three rounds of an international modified Delphi process using nine-point Likert scales to rank the importance of descriptors. Feedback was provided between rounds to allow refinement of the next ratings. Patterns in descriptor voting were assessed using principal component analysis (PCA). Resulting PCA groups were used to organize items in rounds two and three. Consensus descriptors were submitted to a patient panel for feedback. Items meeting predetermined thresholds were included in the final set and ratified at the consensus meeting. RESULTS: One hundred and thirty three respondents from 22 countries completed round one, of whom 67.0% completed round three. Ninety seven descriptors were rated across three rounds in 11 PCA-based groups. Forty descriptors were shortlisted. The consensus meeting ratified a core descriptor set of 37 descriptors within six domains: fistula anatomy, current disease activity and phenotype, risk factors, medical interventions for CAF, surgical interventions for CAF, and patient symptoms and impact on quality of life. CONCLUSION: The core descriptor set proposed for all future CAF research reflects characteristics important to gastroenterologists and surgeons. This might aid transparent reporting in future studies

Determinants of receiving immediate breast reconstruction: An analysis of patient characteristics at a tertiary care center in the US

Background: Breast reconstruction is an option for women undergoing mastectomy for breast cancer. Previous studies have reported underutilization of reconstructive surgery. This study aims to examine the role demographic, clinical and socio-economic factors may have on patients’ decisions to undergo breast reconstruction. Methods: We analyzed data from our institutional database. Using multivariable and multinomial logistic regression, we compared breast cancer patients who had undergone mastectomy-only to those who had immediate breast reconstruction (overall and by type of reconstruction). Results: We analyzed data on 1459 women who underwent mastectomy during the period 2003–2015. Of these, 475 (32.6%) underwent mastectomy-only and 984 (67.4%) also underwent immediate breast reconstruction. After adjusting for potential confounders, older age (OR = 0.18, 95%CI:0.08–0.40), Asian race (OR = 0.29, 95%CI:0.19–0.45), bilateral mastectomy (OR = 0.71, 95%CI:0.56–0.90), and higher stage of disease (OR = 0.44, 95%CI:0.26–0.74) were independent risk factors for not receiving immediate breast reconstruction. Furthermore, patients with Medicare or Medicaid insurance were less likely than patients with private insurance to receive an autologous reconstruction. There was no evidence for changes over time in the way socio-demographic and clinical factors were related to receiving immediate breast reconstruction after mastectomy. Conclusions: Clinical characteristics, sociodemographic factors like age, race and insurance coverage affect the decision for reconstructive surgery following mastectomy. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd We compared breast cancer patients who had undergone mastectomy only to those who had immediate post-mastectomy breast reconstruction (overall and by type of reconstruction). Older age, Asian race, bilateral mastectomy and higher stage of disease were independent risk factors for not receiving immediate breast reconstruction. Clinical characteristics, sociodemographic factors like age, race and insurance coverage affect the decision for reconstructive surgery following mastectomy for breast cancer. © 2020 Elsevier Lt