A fatal case of louping-ill in a dog: immunolocalization and full genome sequencing of the virus

Louping-ill (LI), caused by louping-ill virus (LIV), results in a frequently fatal encephalitis primarily affecting sheep and red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scotica), but it does occur in other species. An adult male Border collie dog was definitively diagnosed with fatal LI and the lesion profile, LIV antigen distribution and full genome sequence of the LIV responsible were investigated to determine if this differed significantly from sheep-derived LIV. No gross lesions were present. The histological lesions were confined to the central nervous system and comprised of lymphocytic perivascular cuffs, glial foci, neuronal necrosis and neuronophagia. Immunolocalization of viral antigen showed small amounts present in neurons only. These histological and immunohistochemical findings were similar to those reported in affected sheep. Compared with published full genome sequences of sheep-derived LIV, only very minor differences were present and phylogenetically the virus clustered individually between a subclade containing Scottish strains, LIV 369/T2 and G and another subclade containing an English isolate LIV A. The LIV isolated from the dog shares a common progenitor with LIV A. These findings suggest there is no canine-specific LIV strain, dogs are susceptible to sheep-associated strains of LI and with the increase in tick prevalence, and therefore exposure to LIV, a safe, effective vaccine for dogs may be required

Evaluating G2G for use in Rapid Response Catchments: Final Report

Flood impacts can be severe for rapid response catchments (RRCs). Providing targeted flood warnings is challenging using existing methodologies and on account of the typical absence of river flow gauging. The Pitt Review of the Summer 2007 floods recognised the need for new alert procedures for RRCs able to exploit the new distributed flood forecasting capability being progressed from research into operations. Work on the G2G (Grid-to-Grid) distributed hydrological model was accelerated into operational practice to support 5-day countrywide flood outlooks, a major recommendation of the Pitt Review. The present study aims to explore the potential of G2G to support more frequent and detailed alerts relevant to flood warning in RRCs. Integral to this study is the use of emerging rainfall forecast products, in deterministic and ensemble form, which allow the lead-time of G2G flow forecasts to be extended and given an uncertainty context. This Report sets down the overall scope of the project, provides an introduction to G2G by way of background and then reports on the outcomes of the R&D study. This includes extensive preparatory work on collating historical datasets to support G2G model assessment, both relating to hydrometry and new rainfall forecast products. A framework is developed for assessing G2G in both simulation-mode and forecast-mode (as a function of lead-time) targeted at the RRC requirement. Relevant to the requirement is the RRC Register of points and areas of interest compiled by the Environment Agency, and the characteristics of RRCs (occurring in isolation or in combination): small catchment area, urban/sub-urban land-cover and steep slopes. The assessment framework is first applied assuming perfect knowledge of rainfall observations for past and future times, so as not to confound the analysis with errors from rainfall forecasts. Variability of performance measures across groups of sites is summarised through box and whisker plots, groups being differentiated on size of catchment area and nature of G2G run (simulation, and with the addition of state updating and flow insertion in turn). Skill scores judge how well the model performs in detecting a flood event exceeding a flow threshold, taken as the median annual flood (as an indicator of bankfull flow exceedance for natural channels) and fractional multipliers of it. The skill scores include POD (Probability of Detection) and FAR (False Alarm Ratio). Performance maps of R2 Efficiency, indicating the variability in the observations accounted for by the model, are used to portray the spatial variability of G2G accuracy across the country. G2G performance in small catchments, relevant to the RRC requirement, is best over South West, North East and North West regions; also median performance appears robust from one year to the next. Larger catchments benefit most in forecast-mode from flow insertion, whilst smaller headwater catchments gain particularly from ARMA (AutoRegressive Moving Average) error-prediction. An assessment is made of using deterministic rainfall forecasts from NWP UKV - the Numerical Weather Prediction UK Variable Resolution form of the Met Office Unified Model - in a full emulation of G2G in real-time, and using foreknowledge of rainfall observations as a reference baseline. Forecast quality can deteriorate strongly beyond 12 hours, especially for smaller catchments, whilst for some locations good performance is maintained even for long lead-times. Diagnostic analysis reveals that the UKV rainfall forecasts have patterns of overestimation in some lowland areas (e.g. over London) and leeward of high elevation areas (e.g. north and south Pennines). Overall performance is better in Scotland although there is evidence of UKV overestimating rainfall near the coast at Edinburgh and Elgin in the north. The assessment framework is extended to include rainfall forecast ensembles and probabilistic flood forecasting, using a combination of case-study and longer-term analyses. Blended Ensemble rainfall forecasts are assessed in two forms: forecasts out to 24 hours updated 4 times a day, and nowcasts out to 7 hours updated every 15 minutes. The 24 hour forecasts generally perform well as input to G2G in the case studies, the G2G flow forecasts typically signalling a flood peak 12 to 18 hours in advance and ahead of any observed response for small catchments. New regional summary map displays of the probability of flow threshold exceedances over a forecast horizon, and for increasing levels of severity, are developed to highlight evolving hotspots of flood risk over time. The first ever continuous assessment of G2G probability flow forecasts is reported using national maps of probabilistic skill scores - Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) Skill Score and Brier Skill Score (BSS) - to spatially assess their performance. It is noted that the short periods available for assessment - a 7½ month period over England & Wales and 4 ½ months over Scotland - limit the analyses to low return period flow thresholds. Half the median (2-year) flood is used although a regional pooled analysis allows some assessment up to 5-year. The G2G probability forecast assessed is the probability of the chosen flow threshold being exceeded at any time over the forecast horizon (taken to be 24 hours). Comparison of these scores when applied to deterministic and probabilistic forecasts from G2G provides strong evidence of the value of G2G ensemble forecasts as an indicator of flood risk over Britain. Noticeably poorer performance indicated by the BSS across Scotland is in part attributed to the short, summer-dominated assessment period. Operational tools available to FFC and the SFFS for using G2G flow ensembles are reviewed and options for improvement identified drawing on the experience and findings of the study. This leads to identifying some work of an operational nature for consideration in Phase 3 of the project. The report closes with a summary of project achievements grouped thematically, a set of recommendations both of a general nature and specific to FFC and SFFS needs, and finally some proposals for consideration under Phase 3 of the G2G for Rapid Response Catchments project. Some key benefits arising from the project are summarised below. • Evidence has been produced that shows G2G has good skill in providing strategic forecasts for RRCs. The evidence is stratified by catchment type (area, urbanisation, headwater), form of forecast (simulation or forecast mode) and nature of rainfall input (raingauge, deterministic forecast, ensemble forecast). • Strong evidence has been presented on the advantage of using an ensemble rainfall forecast as input to G2G to obtain a probabilistic flood forecast for an RRC, relative to an approach where only a single deterministic rainfall and flood forecast is obtained. This indicates better guidance can be given on forecast flood risk for RRCs, improving the level of service provision for such catchments which are currently not well served. • An improved G2G model configuration, exploiting gauged flows from 912 sites and including new locally calibrated parameters, has been delivered and made operational for the FFC with England & Wales coverage. The benefit is improved operational flood forecast accuracy. For Scotland, an enhanced configuration will be delivered to SFFS in Spring 2014. • Detailed recommendations on how the visual presentation of G2G ensemble results could be improved are set down in this report. When further developed and implemented, these will prove of benefit to the preparation of Flood Guidance Statements issued by FFC and the SFFS across Britain

Relativistic theory of elastic deformable astronomical bodies: perturbation equations in rotating spherical coordinates and junction conditions

In this paper, the dynamical equations and junction conditions at the interface between adjacent layers of different elastic properties for an elastic deformable astronomical body in the first post-Newtonian approximation of Einstein theory of gravity are discussed in both rotating Cartesian coordinates and rotating spherical coordinates. The unperturbed rotating body (the ground state) is described as uniformly rotating, stationary and axisymmetric configuration in an asymptotically flat space-time manifold. Deviations from the equilibrium configuration are described by means of a displacement field. In terms of the formalism of relativistic celestial mechanics developed by Damour, Soffel and Xu, and the framework established by Carter and Quintana the post Newtonian equations of the displacement field and the symmetric trace-free shear tensor are obtained. Corresponding post-Newtonian junction conditions at interfaces also the outer surface boundary conditions are presented. The PN junction condition is an extension of Wahr's one which is a Newtonian junction conditions without rotating.Comment: Revtex4, 14 page

Modeling what we sample and sampling what we model: challenges for zooplankton model assessment

Zooplankton are the intermediate trophic level between phytoplankton and fish, and are an important component of carbon and nutrient cycles, accounting for a large proportion of the energy transfer to pelagic fishes and the deep ocean. Given zooplankton's importance, models need to adequately represent zooplankton dynamics. A major obstacle, though, is the lack of model assessment. Here we try and stimulate the assessment of zooplankton in models by filling three gaps. The first is that many zooplankton observationalists are unfamiliar with the biogeochemical, ecosystem, size-based and individual-based models that have zooplankton functional groups, so we describe their primary uses and how each typically represents zooplankton. The second gap is that many modelers are unaware of the zooplankton data that are available, and are unaccustomed to the different zooplankton sampling systems, so we describe the main sampling platforms and discuss their strengths and weaknesses for model assessment. Filling these gaps in our understanding of models and observations provides the necessary context to address the last gap—a blueprint for model assessment of zooplankton. We detail two ways that zooplankton biomass/abundance observations can be used to assess models: data wrangling that transforms observations to be more similar to model output; and observation models that transform model outputs to be more like observations. We hope that this review will encourage greater assessment of zooplankton in models and ultimately improve the representation of their dynamics

Gifts to Physicians From Industry

To the Editor. Controversy surrounds the relationship between the pharmaceutical industry and physicians. Congressional hearings have focused on the extravagant gifts that some physicians have received from pharmaceutical companies, implying that many physicians routinely accept these gift

Upscaling miscanthus production in the United Kingdom: the benefits, challenges, and trade‐offs

The UK sixth carbon budget has recommended domestic biomass supply should increase to meet growing demand, planting a minimum of 30,000 hectares of perennial energy crops a year by 2035, with a view to establishing 700,000 hectares by 2050 to meet the requirements of the balanced net zero pathway. Miscanthus is a key biomass crop to scale up domestic biomass production in the United Kingdom. A cohesive land management strategy, based on robust evidence, will be required to ensure upscaling of miscanthus cultivation maximizes the environmental and economic benefits and minimizes undesirable consequences. This review examines research into available land areas, environmental impacts, barriers to uptake, and the challenges, benefits, and trade-offs required to upscale miscanthus production on arable land and grassland in the United Kingdom. Expansion of perennial biomass crops has been considered best restricted to marginal land, less suited to food production. The review identifies a trade-off between avoiding competition with food production and a risk of encroaching on areas containing high-biodiversity or high-carbon stocks, such as semi-natural grasslands. If areas of land suitable for food production are needed to produce the biomass required for emission reduction, the review indicates there are multiple strategies for miscanthus to complement long-term food security rather than compete with it. On arable land, a miscanthus rotation with a cycle length of 10–20 years can be employed as fallow period for fields experiencing yield decline, soil fatigue, or persistent weed problems. On improved grassland areas, miscanthus presents an option for diversification, flood mitigation, and water quality improvement. Strategies need to be developed to integrate miscanthus into farming systems in a way that is profitable, sensitive to local demand, climate, and geography, and complements rather than competes with food production by increasing overall farm profitability and resilience

The SCUBA-2 Cosmology Legacy Survey: Ultraluminous star-forming galaxies in a z=1.6 cluster

We analyze new SCUBA-2 submillimeter and archival SPIRE far-infrared imaging of a z = 1.62 cluster, Cl 0218.3–0510, which lies in the UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey/Ultra-Deep Survey field of the SCUBA-2 Cosmology Legacy Survey. Combining these tracers of obscured star-formation activity with the extensive photometric and spectroscopic information available for this field, we identify 31 far-infrared/submillimeter-detected probable cluster members with bolometric luminosities 1012 L ☉ and show that by virtue of their dust content and activity, these represent some of the reddest and brightest galaxies in this structure. We exploit ALMA submillimeter continuum observations, which cover one of these sources, to confirm the identification of a SCUBA-2-detected ultraluminous star-forming galaxy in this structure. Integrating the total star-formation activity in the central region of the structure, we estimate that it is an order of magnitude higher (in a mass-normalized sense) than clusters at z ~ 0.5-1. However, we also find that the most active cluster members do not reside in the densest regions of the structure, which instead host a population of passive and massive, red galaxies. We suggest that while the passive and active populations have comparable near-infrared luminosities at z = 1.6, MH ~ –23, the subsequent stronger fading of the more active galaxies means that they will evolve into passive systems at the present day that are less luminous than the descendants of those galaxies that were already passive at z ~ 1.6 (MH ~ –20.5 and MH ~ –21.5, respectively, at z ~ 0). We conclude that the massive galaxy population in the dense cores of present-day clusters were already in place at z = 1.6 and that in Cl 0218.3–0510 we are seeing continuing infall of less extreme, but still ultraluminous, star-forming galaxies onto a pre-existing structure

Observation of hard scattering in photoproduction events with a large rapidity gap at HERA

Events with a large rapidity gap and total transverse energy greater than 5 GeV have been observed in quasi-real photoproduction at HERA with the ZEUS detector. The distribution of these events as a function of the $\gamma p$ centre of mass energy is consistent with diffractive scattering. For total transverse energies above 12 GeV, the hadronic final states show predominantly a two-jet structure with each jet having a transverse energy greater than 4 GeV. For the two-jet events, little energy flow is found outside the jets. This observation is consistent with the hard scattering of a quasi-real photon with a colourless object in the proton.Comment: 19 pages, latex, 4 figures appended as uuencoded fil

Observation of Scaling Violations in Scaled Momentum Distributions at HERA

Charged particle production has been measured in deep inelastic scattering (DIS) events over a large range of $x$ and $Q^2$ using the ZEUS detector. The evolution of the scaled momentum, $x_p$, with $Q^2,$ in the range 10 to 1280 $GeV^2$, has been investigated in the current fragmentation region of the Breit frame. The results show clear evidence, in a single experiment, for scaling violations in scaled momenta as a function of $Q^2$.Comment: 21 pages including 4 figures, to be published in Physics Letters B. Two references adde

D* Production in Deep Inelastic Scattering at HERA

This paper presents measurements of D^{*\pm} production in deep inelastic scattering from collisions between 27.5 GeV positrons and 820 GeV protons. The data have been taken with the ZEUS detector at HERA. The decay channel $D^{*+}\to (D^0 \to K^- \pi^+) \pi^+$ (+ c.c.) has been used in the study. The $e^+p$ cross section for inclusive D^{*\pm} production with $5<Q^2<100 GeV^2$ and $y<0.7$ is 5.3 \pms 1.0 \pms 0.8 nb in the kinematic region {$1.3<p_T(D^{*\pm})<9.0$ GeV and $| \eta(D^{*\pm}) |<1.5$}. Differential cross sections as functions of p_T(D^{*\pm}), $\eta(D^{*\pm}), W$ and $Q^2$ are compared with next-to-leading order QCD calculations based on the photon-gluon fusion production mechanism. After an extrapolation of the cross section to the full kinematic region in p_T(D^{*\pm}) and $\eta$(D^{*\pm}), the charm contribution $F_2^{c\bar{c}}(x,Q^2)$ to the proton structure function is determined for Bjorken $x$ between 2 $\cdot$ 10$^{-4}$ and 5 $\cdot$ 10$^{-3}$.Comment: 17 pages including 4 figure