Extreme events and predictability of catastrophic failure in composite materials and in the Earth

Despite all attempts to isolate and predict extreme earthquakes, these nearly always occur without obvious warning in real time: fully deterministic earthquake prediction is very much a ‘black swan’. On the other hand engineering-scale samples of rocks and other composite materials often show clear precursors to dynamic failure under controlled conditions in the laboratory, and successful evacuations have occurred before several volcanic eruptions. This may be because extreme earthquakes are not statistically special, being an emergent property of the process of dynamic rupture. Nevertheless, probabilistic forecasting of event rate above a given size, based on the tendency of earthquakes to cluster in space and time, can have significant skill compared to say random failure, even in real-time mode. We address several questions in this debate, using examples from the Earth (earthquakes, volcanoes) and the laboratory, including the following. How can we identify ‘characteristic’ events, i.e. beyond the power law, in model selection (do dragon-kings exist)? How do we discriminate quantitatively between stationary and non-stationary hazard models (is a dragon likely to come soon)? Does the system size (the size of the dragon’s domain) matter? Are there localising signals of imminent catastrophic failure we may not be able to access (is the dragon effectively invisible on approach)? We focus on the effect of sampling effects and statistical uncertainty in the identification of extreme events and their predictability, and highlight the strong influence of scaling in space and time as an outstanding issue to be addressed by quantitative studies, experimentation and models

New method for true-triaxial rock testing

Two new and related true-triaxial apparatus are described that make use of conventional triaxial pressure vessels in combination with specially configured, high-pressure hydraulic jacks inside these vessels. The development combines advantages not found in existing facilities, including a compact design, pore-pressure and flow-through capabilities, the ability to attain high principal stresses and principal stress differences, direct access to parts of the sample, and provisions to go to relatively large deformations without developing serious stress field inhomogeneities

Diagnosis and management of spinal muscular atrophy : Part 1: Recommendations for diagnosis, rehabilitation, orthopedic and nutritional care

Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is a severe neuromuscular disorder due to a defect in the survival motor neuron 1 (SMN1) gene. Its incidence is approximately 1 in 11,000 live births. In 2007, an International Conference on the Standard of Care for SMA published a consensus statement on SMA standard of care that has been widely used throughout the world. Here we report a two-part update of the topics covered in the previous recommendations. In part 1 we present the methods used to achieve these recommendations, and an update on diagnosis, rehabilitation, orthopedic and spinal management; and nutritional, swallowing and gastrointestinal management. Pulmonary management, acute care, other organ involvement, ethical issues, medications, and the impact of new treatments for SMA are discussed in part 2

History of clinical transplantation

How transplantation came to be a clinical discipline can be pieced together by perusing two volumes of reminiscences collected by Paul I. Terasaki in 1991-1992 from many of the persons who were directly involved. One volume was devoted to the discovery of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), with particular reference to the human leukocyte antigens (HLAs) that are widely used today for tissue matching.1 The other focused on milestones in the development of clinical transplantation.2 All the contributions described in both volumes can be traced back in one way or other to the demonstration in the mid-1940s by Peter Brian Medawar that the rejection of allografts is an immunological phenomenon.3,4 © 2008 Springer New York

Cryptococcosis in Gilbert's and long-nosed potoroo

Two cases of fatal cryptococcosis are described, one of Cryptococcus neoformans infection in a Gilbert's potoroo (Potorous gilbertii) and one of Cryptococcus gattii infection in a long-nosed potoroo (Potorous tridactylus). The diagnoses were confirmed by culture and specific immunohistochemistry, respectively. The long-nosed potoroo tested positive using the latex cryptococcal antigen test (LCAT), whereas the Gilbert's potoroo had a negative LCAT result despite having advanced disease of some duration. In both cases, the clinical presentation was a progressive neurologic disease associated with a central nervous system infection. Pulmonary infection was also observed in the long-nosed potoroo. Specific treatment with antifungal agents was unsuccessful in the long-nosed potoroo

Science, principles and forest management: a response to Abbott and Christensen

As scientists engaged in research and teaching on the biota and ecosystems of Western Australia, we have been stimulated to respond to a recent paper by Abbott and Christensen 'Application of ecological and evolutionary principles to forest management in Western Australia' (Australian Forestry 57 (3), 109-122). In the light of the considerable emotion and rhetoric generated at present in the debate over management of native forests, Abbott and Christensen's paper had the potential to provide a rational basis for this important issue and to set the tone for reasoned and informed debate in all venues. Regrettably, this paper appears to contain fundamental flaws in logic, as well as in its choice and discussion of principles, and fails to live up to the promise of its title. Our concerns about the paper are substantial, making concise rebuttal difficult, and are presented under five broad headings. 1. Building a straw man. 2. Logical inconsistencies and misrepresentations. 3. Principles of platitudes. 4. Alternative interpretations. 5. Indicators of ecologically good condition of jarrah and karri forest

Associations between prenatal exposure to phthalates and timing of menarche and growth and adiposity into Adulthood: A Twenty-Years Birth Cohort Study

Phthalates are ubiquitous environmental chemicals with endocrine disrupting properties and potentially obesogenic effects. We hypothesised that antenatal phthalate exposure may influence growth and adiposity patterns in girls through childhood into adolescence. Among 1342 Raine Study singleton females, 462 had maternal serum and at least one outcome available up to 20 years of age. Individuals’ maternal serum collected at 18 and 34 weeks gestation was pooled and analyzed for concentrations of 32 metabolites of 15 phthalate diesters. Cox regression and linear models were used to determine associations between maternal phthalate levels and age at menarche, change in height and weight z-scores between birth and two years, height from birth to 20 years, BMI from two to 20 years, deviation from mid-parental height at age 20 and DEXA scan measures at age 20. Weak negative associations were detected with some phthalate metabolites and change in height and weight z-score during infancy. Weak positive associations between some of the high molecular weight phthalate metabolites and height z-score were detected during childhood. While still within the normal range, age at menarche was slightly delayed in girls with higher prenatal exposure to the higher molecular weight phthalate metabolites. We derived some associations between prenatal phthalate exposure with early growth patterns and age at menarche