Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km²) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. <br><br> The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day^-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. <br><br> By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. <br><br> Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur

Prognostic impact of systemic inflammatory diseases in elderly patients with congestive heart failure

Background and aims: Inflammation is part of the pathophysiology of congestive heart failure (CHF). However, little is known about the impact of the presence of systemic inflammatory disease (SID), defined as inflammatory syndrome with constitutional symptoms and involvement of at least two organs as co-morbidity on the clinical course and prognosis of patients with CHF. Methods and results: This is an analysis of all 622 patients included in TIME-CHF. After an 18 months follow-up, outcomes of patients with and without SID were compared. Primary endpoint was all-cause hospitalization free survival. Secondary endpoints were overall survival and CHF hospitalization free survival. At baseline, 38 patients had history of SID (6.1%). These patients had higher N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide and worse renal function than patients without SID. SID was a risk factor for adverse outcome [primary endpoint: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.73 (95% confidence interval: 1.18-2.55, P = 0.005); survival: HR = 2.60 (1.49-4.55, P = 0.001); CHF hospitalization free survival: HR = 2.3 (1.45-3.65, P < 0.001)]. In multivariate models, SID remained the strongest independent risk factor for survival and CHF hospitalization free survival. Conclusions: In elderly patients with CHF, SID is independently accompanied with adverse outcome. Given the increasing prevalence of SID in the elderly population, these findings are clinically important for both risk stratification and patient managemen

Post-landslide soil and vegetation recovery in a dry, montane system is slow and patchy

Landslides are common disturbances in forests around the world, and a major threat to human life and property. Landslides are likely to become more common in many areas as storms intensify. Forest vegetation can improve hillslope stability via long, deep rooting across and through failure planes. In the U.S. Rocky Mountains, landslides are infrequent but widespread when they do occur. They are also extremely understudied, with little known about the basic vegetation recovery processes and rates of establishment which restabilize hills. This study presents the first evaluation of post-landslide vegetation recovery on forested landslides in the southern Rocky Mountains. Six years after a major landslide event, the surveyed sites have very little regeneration in initiation zones, even when controlling for soil coverage. Soils are shallower and less nitrogen rich in initiation zones as well. Rooting depth was similar between functional groups regardless of position on the slide, but deep-rooting trees are much less common in initiation zones. A lack of post-disturbance tree regeneration in these lower elevation, warm/dry settings, common across a variety of disturbance types, suggests that complete tree restabilization of these hillslopes is likely to be a slow or non-existent, especially as the climate warms. Replacement by grasses would protect against shallow instabilities but not the deeper mass movement events which threaten life and property

Elevated Cardiac Troponin I in Sepsis and Septic Shock: No Evidence for Thrombus Associated Myocardial Necrosis

Elevated cardiac troponin I (cTnI) is frequently observed in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock. However, the mechanisms underlying cTnI release in these patients are still unknown. To date no data regarding coagulation disturbances as a possible mechanism for cTnI release during sepsis are available.Consecutive patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), sepsis or septic shock without evidence of an acute coronary syndrome were analyzed. Coagulation parameters (clotting time (CT), clot formation time (CFT), maximum clot firmness (MCF), alpha-angle) were assessed in native whole blood samples, and using specific activators to evaluate the extrinsic and intrinsic as well as the fibrin component of the coagulation pathway with the use of rotational thrombelastometry (ROTEM). Thirty-eight patients were included and 22 (58%) were cTnI-positive. Baseline characteristics between TnI-positive and -negative patients were similar. The CT, CFT, MCF and the alpha-angle were similar between the groups with trends towards shorter CT in the extrinsic and fibrin activation.We found no differences in coagulation parameters analyzed with rotational thrombelastometry between cTnI-positive and -negative patients with SIRS, severe sepsis, and septic shock. These findings suggest that pathophysiological mechanisms other than thrombus-associated myocardial damage might play a major role, including reversible myocardial membrane leakage and/or cytokine mediated apoptosis in these patients

Chromium stable isotope distributions in the southwest Pacific Ocean and constraints on hydrothermal input from the Kermadec Arc

Special attention has been given to chromium (Cr) as a paleoproxy tracing redox cycling throughout Earth’s history, due to differences in the solubility of its primary redox species at Earth’s surface (Cr (III) and Cr(VI)) and isotope fractionation associated with their interconversion. In turn, chromium’s pale- oproxy potential has motivated studies of the modern ocean to better understand which processes drive its cycling and to constrain their impact on the Cr isotope composition (d53Cr) of seawater. Here, we pre- sent total dissolved seawater Cr concentrations and d53Cr along the GEOTRACES GP13 section. This sec- tion is a zonal transect extending from Australia in the subtropical southwest Pacific Ocean. Surface signals of local biological Cr cycling are minimal, in agreement with distributions of dissolved major nutrients as well as biologically-controlled trace metals in this low productivity, oligotrophic environ- ment. Depth profiles have Cr concentration minima in surface waters and maxima at depth, and are lar- gely shaped by the advection of nutrient- and Cr-rich subsurface waters rather than vertically-driven processes. Samples close to the sediment–water interface indicate important benthic Cr fluxes across the section. The GP13 transect crosses the hydrothermally-active Kermadec Arc. Hydrothermal fluids (consisting of &lt;15% background seawater) were collected from three venting sites at the Brothers Volcano (along the Kermadec Arc). These fluids yielded near-crustal d53Cr values (!0.17 to +0.08‰) and elevated [Cr] (7.5–23 nmol kg!1, hydrothermal endmember [Cr] % 8–27 nmol kg!1), indicating that the Kermadec Arc may be an isotopically light Cr source. Dissolved [Fe] enrichments have been reported previously in deep waters ($1600–3000 m) along the GP13 transect, east of the Kermadec Arc. These same waters show ele- vated [Cr] compared to Circumpolar Deep Water ([Cr] = 3.88 ± 0.11, d53Cr = 0.89 ± 0.08, n = 32), with an aver- age [Cr] accumulation of 0.71 ± 0.11 nmol kg!1 (1 SD), and an estimated d53Cr of +0.46 ± 0.30‰ (2 SD, n = 9) for the accumulated Cr. Comparing high-temperature vent and neutrally buoyant plume data, hydrothermal-sourced Cr is likely negligable compared to Cr contributions from other processes (benthic fluxes, release from particles), and the advection of more Cr-rich Pacific Deep Water. It is unlikely that hydrothermal vents would be a major contributor within the regional or global biogeochemical Cr cycle, even if hydrothermal fluxes change by orders of magnitude, and therefore d53Cr trends in the paleorecord may be attributable, at least in part, to major changes in other controls on Cr (e.g. widespread anoxia)

Interactions of Cathinone NPS with Human Transporters and Receptors in Transfected Cells

Pharmacological assays carried out in transfected cells have been very useful for describing the mechanism of action of cathinone new psychoactive substances (NPS). These in vitro characterizations provide fast and reliable information on psychoactive substances soon after they emerge for recreational use. Well-investigated comparator compounds, such as methamphetamine, 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine, cocaine, and lysergic acid diethylamide, should always be included in the characterization to enhance the translation of the in vitro data into clinically useful information. We classified cathinone NPS according to their pharmacology at monoamine transporters and receptors. Cathinone NPS are monoamine uptake inhibitors and most induce transporter-mediated monoamine efflux with weak to no activity at pre- or postsynaptic receptors. Cathinones with a nitrogen-containing pyrrolidine ring emerged as NPS that are extremely potent transporter inhibitors but not monoamine releasers. Cathinones exhibit clinically relevant differences in relative potencies at serotonin vs. dopamine transporters. Additionally, cathinone NPS have more dopaminergic vs. serotonergic properties compared with their non-β-keto amphetamine analogs, suggesting more stimulant and reinforcing properties. In conclusion, in vitro pharmacological assays in heterologous expression systems help to predict the psychoactive and toxicological effects of NPS

Design of a bed load and driftwood filtering dam, analysis of the phenomena and hydraulic design

Flood protection often calls on to the realization of retention works for bed load as well as wood and debris flow. Certain relatively recent arrangements did not perform according to their intended function, what shows the complexity of the design and the implementation of such works. Adaptations were necessary to reach the security objectives. The design of a retention dam for solid materials and floating driftwood requires the consideration of numerous hydraulic and material transport processes. The analyses and design validation can be made with two approaches: physical modelling by the construction of a reduced scale model and the test realization or numerical simulation, by means of software packages such as GESMAT (1D) or TOPOFLOW (2D). The present work consists in implementing both approaches, in estimating and in comparing the answers which could be given for a bed load and debris flow filtering dam on a river with a slope of the order of 10%. Thanks to water level gauges and visual observations during tests on the physical model, the progression of the obstructions by driftwood and bed load is well understood, and the effectiveness of these obstructions proven. The tested work plays at first a role of filtering and retention and secondly a role of side overflow towards a zone with low damage potential, when the capacity of the in-stream retention space is reached. The performed numerical simulations, essentially in 1D, reproduce well the phenomena of bed load aggradation. Moreover, the potential obstruction by floating wood is considered and influences the behavior of the structure. By putting in parallel physical and numerical models, it was possible thanks to the results from the physical scale model to refine the numerical simulation tools taking into consideration additional components and behavior-type rules. These further established rules can now be used for other cases where physical modelling is not foreseen

A radioimmunoassay for quantifying carbonic anhydrase isozymes in crude lysates

A radioimmunoassay was developed for quantifying each of the two genetically distinct forms of primate carbonic anhydrase, carbonic anhydrases I and II, in unpurified lysates. Under the given experimental conditions, the assay is capable of detecting a minimum of 0.025 μg of carbonic anhydrase I and 0.005 μg of carbonic anhydrase II. There is approximately 98% reproducibility upon repeated assays of a given hemolysate.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/44165/1/10528_2004_Article_BF00485779.pd

Modern Clinical Research on LSD

All modern clinical studies using the classic hallucinogen lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) in healthy subjects or patients in the last 25 years are reviewed herein. There were five recent studies in healthy participants and one in patients. In a controlled setting, LSD acutely induced bliss, audiovisual synesthesia, altered meaning of perceptions, derealization, depersonalization, and mystical experiences. These subjective effects of LSD were mediated by the 5-HT2A receptor. LSD increased feelings of closeness to others, openness, trust, and suggestibility. LSD impaired the recognition of sad and fearful faces, reduced left amygdala reactivity to fearful faces, and enhanced emotional empathy. LSD increased the emotional response to music and the meaning of music. LSD acutely produced deficits in sensorimotor gating, similar to observations in schizophrenia. LSD had weak autonomic stimulant effects and elevated plasma cortisol, prolactin, and oxytocin levels. Resting-state functional magnetic resonance studies showed that LSD acutely reduced the integrity of functional brain networks and increased connectivity between networks that normally are more dissociated. LSD increased functional thalamocortical connectivity and functional connectivity of the primary visual cortex with other brain areas. The latter effect was correlated with subjective hallucinations. LSD acutely induced global increases in brain entropy that were associated with greater trait openness 14 days later. In patients with anxiety associated with life-threatening disease, anxiety was reduced for 2 months after two doses of LSD. In medical settings, no complications of LSD administration were observed. These data should contribute to further investigations of the therapeutic potential of LSD in psychiatry