Demand Uncertainty and the Regulated Firm

[Introduction] In this paper, we investigate the impact of demand uncertainty on the choice of plant capacity by a regulated firm. Over the past few years, demand uncertainty has become a major element in the decision-making of utilities, and particularly in their decision-making with respect to capacity choices. In a recent study by SRI [1977], it was reported that to maximize expected consumers' surplus, more generating capacity was required for the electric utility industry when operating under demand uncertainty than under demand certainty.1 This finding raises the question whether the structure of rate regulation of electric utilities provides the appropriate incentives for them to invest in more capacity under demand uncertainty then under certainty. The present paper addresses such questions

Demand Uncertainty and the Regulated Firm

Demand uncertainty is an important element of many regulated markets. Firms often must select plant size before actual demand is observed, and with some expectation of regulatory action if the actual levels of profit or rate of return do not fall within accepted ranges. We analyze a model of a regulated firm that faces a relatively complex regime of price regulation, reflecting to at least some extent the multiple aspects suggested by Joskow (1974). The firm behaves as though it expects the current tariff to remain in effect unless, at the actual demand observed after plant size is chosen, one of two things occurs. First, if profits are negative, the firm plans to petition for and expects to receive a new tariff yielding zero economic profits. Second, if the rate of return on capital exceeds some specified maximum, the firm expects the regulator to reduce the tariff so that the firm earns only that maximum

Numerical experiments on short-term meteorological effects on solar variability

A set of numerical experiments was conducted to test the short-range sensitivity of a large atmospheric general circulation model to changes in solar constant and ozone amount. On the basis of the results of 12-day sets of integrations with very large variations in these parameters, it is concluded that realistic variations would produce insignificant meteorological effects. Any causal relationships between solar variability and weather, for time scales of two weeks or less, rely upon changes in parameters other than solar constant or ozone amounts, or upon mechanisms not yet incorporated in the model

Optimisation of patch distribution strategies for AMR applications

As core counts increase in the world's most powerful supercomputers, applications are becoming limited not only by computational power, but also by data availability. In the race to exascale, efficient and effective communication policies are key to achieving optimal application performance. Applications using adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) trade off communication for computational load balancing, to enable the focused computation of specific areas of interest. This class of application is particularly susceptible to the communication performance of the underlying architectures, and are inherently difficult to scale efficiently. In this paper we present a study of the effect of patch distribution strategies on the scalability of an AMR code. We demonstrate the significance of patch placement on communication overheads, and by balancing the computation and communication costs of patches, we develop a scheme to optimise performance of a specific, industry-strength, benchmark application

Demand Uncertainty and the Regulated Firm

Demand uncertainty is an important element of many regulated markets. Firms often must select plant size before actual demand is observed, and with some expectation of regulatory action if the actual levels of profit or rate of return do not fall within accepted ranges. We analyze a model of a regulated firm that faces a relatively complex regime of price regulation, reflecting to at least some extent the multiple aspects suggested by Joskow (1974). The firm behaves as though it expects the current tariff to remain in effect unless, at the actual demand observed after plant size is chosen, one of two things occurs. First, if profits are negative, the firm plans to petition for and expects to receive a new tariff yielding zero economic profits. Second, if the rate of return on capital exceeds some specified maximum, the firm expects the regulator to reduce the tariff so that the firm earns only that maximum

Demand Uncertainty and the Regulated Firm

[Introduction] In this paper, we investigate the impact of demand uncertainty on the choice of plant capacity by a regulated firm. Over the past few years, demand uncertainty has become a major element in the decision-making of utilities, and particularly in their decision-making with respect to capacity choices. In a recent study by SRI [1977], it was reported that to maximize expected consumers' surplus, more generating capacity was required for the electric utility industry when operating under demand uncertainty than under demand certainty.1 This finding raises the question whether the structure of rate regulation of electric utilities provides the appropriate incentives for them to invest in more capacity under demand uncertainty then under certainty. The present paper addresses such questions

Patient experience of lasting negative effects of psychological interventions for anxiety and depression in secondary mental health care services: a national cross-sectional study

Background Patients who undergo psychological treatment can report both negative and positive effects, but evidence of factors influencing the likelihood of negative effects is limited. Aims To identify aspects of the organisation and delivery of secondary care psychological treatment services that are associated with patient experiences of negative effects. Method Cross-sectional survey of people with anxiety and depression who ended psychological treatment delivered by 50 NHS trusts in England. Respondents were asked about how their treatment was organised and delivered and whether they experienced lasting negative effects. Results Of 662 respondents, 90 (14.1%) reported experiencing lasting negative effects. People over the age of 65 were less likely than younger respondents to report negative effects. There was an association between reporting neutral or negative effects and not being referred at what respondents considered to be the right time (OR = 1.712, 95% CI = 1.078–2.726), not receiving the right number of sessions (OR = 3.105, 95% CI = 1.934–4.987), and not discussing progress with their therapist (OR 2.063, 95% CI = 1.290–3.301). Conclusions One in seven patients who took part in this survey reported lasting negative effects from psychological treatment. Steps should be taken to prepare people for the potential for negative experiences of treatment, and progress reviewed during therapy in an effort to identify and prevent negative effects

Low Mach number effect in simulation of high Mach number flow

In this note, we relate the two well-known difficulties of Godunov schemes: the carbuncle phenomena in simulating high Mach number flow, and the inaccurate pressure profile in simulating low Mach number flow. We introduced two simple low-Mach-number modifications for the classical Roe flux to decrease the difference between the acoustic and advection contributions of the numerical dissipation. While the first modification increases the local numerical dissipation, the second decreases it. The numerical tests on the double-Mach reflection problem show that both modifications eliminate the kinked Mach stem suffered by the original flux. These results suggest that, other than insufficient numerical dissipation near the shock front, the carbuncle phenomena is strongly relevant to the non-comparable acoustic and advection contributions of the numerical dissipation produced by Godunov schemes due to the low Mach number effect.Comment: 9 pages, 1 figur

Revenue divergence and competitive balance in a divisional sports league

The North American model of resource allocation in professional sports leagues is adapted for English (association) football. The theoretical relationship between revenue and competitive balance is shown to be robust with respect to changes in teams’ objectives and labour market conditions. Empirical revenue functions are reported for 1926-1999. These indicate a shift in the composition of demand favouring big-city teams and an increase in the sensitivity of revenue to performance. An analysis of match results in the FA Cup competition suggests an increase in competitive imbalance between teams at different levels of the league’s divisional hierarchy, as the theory suggests

Controls of Litter Size—Do Conclusions Drawn from Institutional Research Herds Always Have Relevance to Commercial Swine Production?

Increasing litter size in pigs has been an ongoing concern of many producers because it has the greatest impact on profitability of the swine enterprise. To study the biology of conceptus growth and survival, many models have been used by researchers. It was determined that a major component in limiting litter size results from the impacts of limitations in uterine space (i.e. uterine capacity). Placental efficiency, which is the ratio of a fetus’s weight compared with that of its placenta, has been shown to impact litter size, and is heritable. Selection for breeding animals having a high placental efficiency at term, has been shown to increase litter size. Furthermore, although piglet weight was only slightly decreased in offspring of boars and gilts selected for increased placental efficiency, placental size was profoundly reduced. This reduction in placental size was coupled with an increase in vascularity, thus nutrient and oxygen uptake by the conceptus could be accomplished over a decreased surface area of attachment to the uterine wall. Reproductive data obtained to date have been gathered largely from university swine herds that may have little relevance to commercially used US pig breeds. In contrast to the constant evaluations of physiological changes associated with increased litter size at universities, swine seed stock producers have selected for many generations simply on increased litter size and have not bothered to evaluate the resulting physiological changes associated with increased fecundity. Therefore, it was the objective of this study to investigate the reproductive characteristics of a commercially relevant swine herd in Iowa (PIC Camborough Line) at selected gestational ages. Multiparous sows (ranging from 1 to 14 parities) were slaughtered on days 25, 36, and 44 of gestation, time periods corresponding to intervals which are before, during, and after the time when uterine capacity becomes limiting. At the laboratory, the uterine horns were measured and ovulation rate was determined. Conceptuses were removed and fetal and placental weights were determined. Uterine horn length and ovulation rate did not differ between the three gestational groups. Conceptus number decreased from 15.8 ± 0.6 on day 25 to 12.9 ± 0.5 and 12.1 ± 0.4 on day 36 and day 44 (litter size in this population averages ~11.5 liveborn piglets/litter). Conceptus survival to day 25 was 60.2 ± 0.1%, which then decreased to 50.1 ± 0.1% on day 36 and 46.3 ± 0.1% on day 44. There was a positive correlation between conceptus number and ovulation rate on day 25 but by day 36 this association was lost. Conceptus number was not associated with uterine length on day 25, but by day 36 there was a positive association that remained through day 44. On all three gestation days there was a negative association between conceptus number and placental weight, but no association between conceptus number and fetal weight was observed, indicating that larger litters are comprised of conceptuses having small placentae, but the same sized fetuses. These data indicate that, compared with commonly reported values for university herds (16-18 ovulations), ovulation rate in these mixed parity production animals is extremely high, whereas conceptus survival as estimated from the number of conceptuses divided by the number of ovulations was very low. Additionally, although conceptus number was related to the ovulation rate on day 25, by day 36 the limitations of uterine size began to reduce conceptus number irrespective of ovulation rate. These data suggest that ovulation rate is not a limiting factor in litter size in this line of commercially relevant pigs. In contrast, the higher than expected ovulation rate observed in these pigs resulted in significant embryo losses and early uterine crowding. The consequences of this early conceptus crowding may have detrimental impacts on prenatal and postnatal growth rate and survival