Advanced Purchase Commitments for a Malaria Vaccine: Estimating Costs and Effectiveness

To overcome the problem of insufficient research and development (R&D) on vaccines for diseases concentrated in low-income countries, sponsors could commit to purchase viable vaccines if and when they are developed. One or more sponsors would commit to a minimum price that would be paid per person immunized for an eligible product, up to a certain number of individuals immunized. For additional purchases, the price would eventually drop to short-run marginal cost. If no suitable product were developed, no payments would be made. We estimate the offer size which would make the revenues from R&D investments on a malaria vaccine similar to revenues realized from investments in typical existing commercial pharmaceutical products, as well as the degree to which various contract models and assumptions would affect the cost-effectiveness of such a commitment for the case of a malaria vaccine. Under conservative assumptions, we document that the intervention would be highly cost-effective from a public health perspective. Sensitivity analyses suggest most characteristics of a hypothetical malaria vaccine would have little effect on the cost-effectiveness, but that the duration of protection against malaria conferred by a vaccine strongly affects potential cost-effectiveness. Readers can conduct their own sensitivity analyses employing a web-based spreadsheet tool.

Size and shape constancy in consumer virtual reality

With the increase in popularity of consumer virtual reality headsets, for research and other applications, it is important to understand the accuracy of 3D perception in VR. We investigated the perceptual accuracy of near-field virtual distances using a size and shape constancy task, in two commercially available devices. Participants wore either the HTC Vive or the Oculus Rift and adjusted the size of a virtual stimulus to match the geometric qualities (size and depth) of a physical stimulus they were able to refer to haptically. The judgments participants made allowed for an indirect measure of their perception of the egocentric, virtual distance to the stimuli. The data show under-constancy and are consistent with research from carefully calibrated psychophysical techniques. There was no difference in the degree of constancy found in the two headsets. We conclude that consumer virtual reality headsets provide a sufficiently high degree of accuracy in distance perception, to allow them to be used confidently in future experimental vision science, and other research applications in psychology

Overcoming behavioral obstacles to escaping poverty

This is the author accepted manuscriptInternational development policy is ripe for an overhaul. Behavioral science can help policymakers to spur changes in behaviors that are difficult to explain from a conventional economic perspective and impede economic development. We focus here on two well-documented, often-coinciding psychological phenomena that have particularly wide-ranging implications for development policy: present bias (favoring immediate rewards over long-term considerations) and limited attention. We present a number of general policy recommendations that are informed by insight into these phenomena and offer concrete examples of how the recommendations can be implemented to help low-income individuals improve their lives and reach their long-term goals

How to Pay for Public Education

For years now, public education, and especially public higher education has been under attack. Funding has been drastically reduced, fees increased, and the seemingly irresistible political force of ever-tightening austerity budgets threatens to cut it even more. But I am not going to take the standard line that government financial support for public higher education should be increased. I view that battle as already lost. What I am going to propose is that we stop arguing about the allocation or reallocation of ever more scarce public resources and think of another way to fund public higher education. It's time for a new approach, one that satisfies the left's claim that higher education should be affordable for all, yet one that does not involve increasing expenditure of public funds or commit the government to entitlement programs that it cannot now or at least cannot long afford. What we need is a new proposal that is acceptable to both sides if we are to bring public education into the twenty-first century. And this is what this paper is devoted to providin

Modelling human visual navigation using multi-view scene reconstruction

It is often assumed that humans generate a 3D reconstruction of the environment, either in egocentric or world-based coordinates, but the steps involved are unknown. Here, we propose two reconstruction-based models, evaluated using data from two tasks in immersive virtual reality. We model the observer’s prediction of landmark location based on standard photogrammetric methods and then combine location predictions to compute likelihood maps of navigation behaviour. In one model, each scene point is treated independently in the reconstruction; in the other, the pertinent variable is the spatial relationship between pairs of points. Participants viewed a simple environment from one location, were transported (virtually) to another part of the scene and were asked to navigate back. Error distributions varied substantially with changes in scene layout; we compared these directly with the likelihood maps to quantify the success of the models. We also measured error distributions when participants manipulated the location of a landmark to match the preceding interval, providing a direct test of the landmark-location stage of the navigation models. Models such as this, which start with scenes and end with a probabilistic prediction of behaviour, are likely to be increasingly useful for understanding 3D vision

What’s on trial? The making of field experiments in international development

In the last 20 years, the drive for evidence‐based policymaking has been coupled with a concurrent push for the use of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) as the “gold‐standard” for generating rigorous evidence on whether or not development interventions work. Drawing on content analysis of 63 development RCTs and 4 years of participant observation, I provide a rich description of the diverse set of actors and the transnational organizational effort required to implement development RCTs and maintain their “scientific status.” Particularly, I investigate the boundary work that proponents of RCTs—also known as randomistas—do to differentiate the purposes and merits of testing development projects from doing them, as a way to bypass the political and ethical problems presented by adopting the experimental method with foreign aid beneficiaries in poor countries. Although randomistas have been mostly successful in differentiating RCTs from the projects evaluated, I also examine cases where they were not able to do so, as a means to highlight the controversies associated with implementing RCTs in international development.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154964/1/bjos12723_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154964/2/bjos12723.pd

Promoting Transparency in Social Science Research

There is growing appreciation for the advantages of experimentation in the social sciences. Policy-relevant claims that in the past were backed by theoretical arguments and inconclusive correlations are now being investigated using more credible methods. Changes have been particularly pronounced in development economics, where hundreds of randomized trials have been carried out over the last decade. When experimentation is difficult or impossible, researchers are using quasi-experimental designs. Governments and advocacy groups display a growing appetite for evidence-based policy-making. In 2005, Mexico established an independent government agency to rigorously evaluate social programs, and in 2012, the U.S. Office of Management and Budget advised federal agencies to present evidence from randomized program evaluations in budget requests (1, 2)

Public service markets: their economics, institutional oversight and regulation

Public services in the UK have been transformed over the past 25 years with the introduction of market oriented solutions into their provision. This has been characterised by a shift away from state provision to independent providers, and by the introduction of competition and choice. This shift was partly ideologically motivated and partly driven by budget cutting considerations following the financial crisis. As such it has been lacking a comprehensive economic justification or method of analysis. It is now commonly accepted that the language of economic markets is essential to frame arguments about how effectively public services are achieving their intended outcomes. Using market language and concepts may not always be comfortable for those from a traditional policy-making background. It can nevertheless be very useful when designing investigations into the effectiveness and value for money in the mechanisms of delivery of such services, whenever these services entail a degree of user choice as is currently the case in large parts of health, social care and education (referred to as competition in the market). Our paper wants to provide a conceptual basis on the way of thinking in these terms. We provide a description of the current state and then comment on the desirability of this quasi market approach. Uniquely in the literature, we analyse the expected and desired developments by distinguishing between choice and compulsory merit goods. In choice merit goods markets many users are unable to choose effectively because of the existence of a number of demand side or supply side market failures. Moreover, conflicts may exist between how service users actually make choices, and policy objectives such as universality or equity which may not be achieved simply by ‘leaving it to the market’. The users of compulsory merit goods are typically a minority and unable to internalise the full social benefits of their actions; hence it may be welfare-enhancing for society to coerce them ‘consume’ these services. As choice cannot be an objective, the commissioning (competition for the market) or direct provision by the state of such goods may meet public policy objectives more effectively than the market mechanism alone. Building on these foundations the paper discusses when public service markets are likely to be an effective method of achieving public policy objectives, and when they may not be. Our paper analyses the implications for the institutional and legal framework, funding oversight and regulation of public service markets as a result of their transformation into quasi-markets. The paper concludes with some suggestions for those charged with overseeing public service markets in practice based on this analysis

Perceptions of the neighbourhood environment and self rated health: a multilevel analysis of the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Study

Background In this study we examined whether (1) the neighbourhood aspects of access to amenities, neighbourhood quality, neighbourhood disorder, and neighbourhood social cohesion are associated with people's self rated health, (2) these health effects reflect differences in socio-demographic composition and/or neighbourhood deprivation, and (3) the associations with the different aspects of the neighbourhood environment vary between men and women. Methods Data from the cross-sectional Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Survey were analysed using multilevel modelling, with individuals nested within enumeration districts. In this study we used the responses of people under 75 years of age (n = 10,892). The response rate of this subgroup was 62.3%. All individual responses were geo-referenced to the 325 census enumeration districts of Caerphilly county borough. Results The neighbourhood attributes of poor access to amenities, poor neighbourhood quality, neighbourhood disorder, lack of social cohesion, and neighbourhood deprivation were associated with the reporting of poor health. These effects were attenuated when controlling for individual and collective socio-economic status. Lack of social cohesion significantly increased the odds of women reporting poor health, but did not increase the odds of men reporting poor health. In contrast, unemployment significantly affected men's health, but not women's health. Conclusion This study shows that different aspects of the neighbourhood environment are associated with people's self rated health, which may partly reflect the health impacts of neighbourhood socio-economic status. The findings further suggest that the social environment is more important for women's health, but that individual socio-economic status is more important for men's health

Perception of Relative Depth Interval: Systematic Biases in Perceived Depth

Given an estimate of the binocular disparity between a pair of points and an estimate of the viewing distance, or knowledge of eye position, it should be possible to obtain an estimate of their depth separation. Here we show that, when points are arranged in different vertical geometric configurations across two intervals, many observers find this task difficult. Those who can do the task tend to perceive the depth interval in one configuration as very different from depth in the other configuration. We explore two plausible explanations for this effect. The first is the tilt of the empirical vertical horopter: Points perceived along an apparently vertical line correspond to a physical line of points tilted backwards in space. Second, the eyes can rotate in response to a particular stimulus. Without compensation for this rotation, biases in depth perception would result. We measured cyclovergence indirectly, using a standard psychophysical task, while observers viewed our depth configuration. Biases predicted from error due either to cyclovergence or to the tilted vertical horopter were not consistent with the depth configuration results. Our data suggest that, even for the simplest scenes, we do not have ready access to metric depth from binocular disparity.</jats:p