Fitting Early Phases of the COVID-19 Outbreak: A Comparison of the Performances of Used Models

The COVID-19 outbreak involved a spread of prediction efforts, especially in the early pandemic phase. A better understanding of the epidemiological implications of the different models seems crucial for tailoring prevention policies. This study aims to explore the concordance and discrepancies in outbreak prediction produced by models implemented and used in the first wave of the epidemic. To evaluate the performance of the model, an analysis was carried out on Italian pandemic data from February 24, 2020. The epidemic models were fitted to data collected at 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, and 98 days (the entire time series). At each time step, we made predictions until May 31, 2020. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) were calculated. The GAM model is the most suitable parameterization for predicting the number of new cases; exponential or Poisson models help predict the cumulative number of cases. When the goal is to predict the epidemic peak, GAM, ARIMA, or Bayesian models are preferable. However, the prediction of the pandemic peak could be made carefully during the early stages of the epidemic because the forecast is affected by high uncertainty and may very likely produce the wrong results

Neutrophil-dependent pentraxin-3 and reactive oxygen species production modulate endothelial dysfunction in haemodialysis patients.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to investigate neutrophil activation and its role in long pentraxin-3 (PTX3) release and oxidative stress generation during haemodialysis (HD) and to correlate neutrophil PTX3 and oxidant expression with endothelial dysfunction. METHODS: Forty-seven uraemic patients on stable HD, 12 healthy subjects and 15 patients with congestive heart failure (New York Heart Association classes III and IV) were enrolled. Neutrophil PTX3 protein expression was evaluated by confocal microscopy. l-selectin expression, intracellular PTX3 localization and reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation in human neutrophils were measured by flow cytometry. NADPH-dependent superoxide generation was investigated by chemiluminescence. PTX3 plasma concentrations were measured by ELISA. Endothelial dysfunction was studied by flow-mediated dilation (FMD). RESULTS: The low baseline levels of FMD significantly improved after HD, but worsened by 24 h. A significant up-regulation of PTX3 protein expression, localized within secondary granules, was detected in neutrophils isolated at 30 and 240 min of HD, along with an increase in l-selectin expression. The up-regulation in intracellular PTX3 in neutrophils was associated with a significant increase in PTX3 plasma concentrations at 240 min. HD increased ROS production and NADPH oxidase activity in neutrophils. In a univariate analysis, pre-treatment with FMD was inversely correlated with PTX3 expression and ROS generation in neutrophils. In a multivariate analysis, both circulating pre-HD PTX3 and intracellular ROS generation by neutrophils were independent predictors of abnormal FMD. CONCLUSIONS: Neutrophil overexpression of PTX3 is associated with ROS overproduction and endothelial dysfunction and may represent an emerging marker of vascular damage progression in HD patients. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved

Poor health related quality of life and unhealthy lifestyle habits in weight-loss treatment-seeking youth

Obesity is associated with unhealthy lifestyle behaviors and poor Health Related Quality of Life (HRQOL). The cumulative effect of lifestyle behaviors on HRQOL has been demonstrated in chronically ill adolescents, but not in adolescents with obesity. The present study aimed to assess the association between HRQOL and adherence to the Mediterranean Diet (MD) and/or low levels of physical activity (PA) in a large sample of outpatient adolescents with overweight or obesity seeking weight loss treatment. Four-hundred-twenty participants were enrolled from 10 Italian outpatient clinics. The demographics and anthropometric features, KIDMED scores, and exercise levels of the participants were collected, together with parental features. The HRQOL was assessed by the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL™), Adolescents Version 4.0. PedsQL total score and functioning subscales were lower in adolescents who reported one or two unhealthy habits. Compared with the high/intermediate groups, the risk of low HRQOL was twice as high for each unit increase in BMI SDS, while the percentage was reduced by 12.2% for every unit increase in the KIDMED score and by 32.3% for each hour increase of exercise. The clustering of these two unhealthy behaviors conferred a 120% higher risk of low HRQOL. Similarly, adolescents displaying better diet quality and/or a physically more active lifestyle have better physical and psychological functioning. Further studies are needed to disclose whether these characteristics may be predictive of better adherence to weight loss treatment

Poor health related quality of life and unhealthy lifestyle habits in weight-loss treatment-seeking youth

Obesity is associated with unhealthy lifestyle behaviors and poor Health Related Quality of Life (HRQOL). The cumulative effect of lifestyle behaviors on HRQOL has been demonstrated in chronically ill adolescents, but not in adolescents with obesity. The present study aimed to assess the association between HRQOL and adherence to the Mediterranean Diet (MD) and/or low levels of physical activity (PA) in a large sample of outpatient adolescents with overweight or obesity seeking weight loss treatment. Four-hundred-twenty participants were enrolled from 10 Italian outpatient clinics. The demographics and anthropometric features, KIDMED scores, and exercise levels of the participants were collected, together with parental features. The HRQOL was assessed by the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL™), Adolescents Version 4.0. PedsQL total score and functioning subscales were lower in adolescents who reported one or two unhealthy habits. Compared with the high/intermediate groups, the risk of low HRQOL was twice as high for each unit increase in BMI SDS, while the percentage was reduced by 12.2% for every unit increase in the KIDMED score and by 32.3% for each hour increase of exercise. The clustering of these two unhealthy behaviors conferred a 120% higher risk of low HRQOL. Similarly, adolescents displaying better diet quality and/or a physically more active lifestyle have better physical and psychological functioning. Further studies are needed to disclose whether these characteristics may be predictive of better adherence to weight loss treatment

Bullying and Victimization in Overweight and Obese Outpatient Children and Adolescents: An Italian Multicentric Study

Objective Being overweight or obese is one of the most common reasons that children and adolescents are teased at school. We carried out a study in order to investigate: i) the relation between weight status and school bullying and ii) the relation between weight status categories and types of victimization and bullying in an outpatient sample of Italian children and adolescents with different degrees of overweight from minimal overweight up to severe obesity. Participants/Methods Nine-hundred-forty-seven outpatient children and adolescents (age range 6.0'14.0 years) were recruited in 14 hospitals distributed over the country of Italy. The participants were classified as normal-weight (N = 129), overweight (N = 126), moderately obese (N = 568), and severely obese (N = 124). The nature and extent of verbal, physical and relational bullying and victimization were assessed with an adapted version of the revised Olweus bully-victim questionnaire. Each participant was coded as bully, victim, bully-victim, or not involved. Results Normal-weight and overweight participants were less involved in bullying than obese participants; severely obese males were more involved in the double role of bully and victim. Severely obese children and adolescents suffered not only from verbal victimization but also from physical victimization and exclusion from group activities. Weight status categories were not directly related to bullying behaviour; however severely obese males perpetrated more bullying behaviour compared to severely obese females. Conclusions Obesity and bullying among children and adolescents are of ongoing concern worldwide and may be closely related. Common strategies of intervention are needed to cope with these two social health challenges

Body composition parameters, immunonutritional indexes, and surgical outcome of pancreatic cancer patients resected after neoadjuvant therapy: A retrospective, multicenter analysis

Background and aims: Body composition parameters and immunonutritional indexes provide useful information on the nutritional and inflammatory status of patients. We sought to investigate whether they predict the postoperative outcome in patients with pancreatic cancer (PC) who received neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) and then pancreaticoduodenectomy. Methods: Data from locally advanced PC patients who underwent NAT followed by pancreaticoduodenectomy between January 2012 and December 2019 in four high-volume institutions were collected retrospectively. Only patients with two available CT scans (before and after NAT) and immunonutritional indexes (before surgery) available were included. Body composition was assessed and immunonutritional indexes collected were: VAT, SAT, SMI, SMA, PLR, NLR, LMR, and PNI. The postoperative outcomes evaluated were overall morbidity (any complication occurring), major complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥ 3), and length of stay. Results: One hundred twenty-one patients met the inclusion criteria and constituted the study population. The median age at the diagnosis was 64 years (IQR16), and the median BMI was 24 kg/m2 (IQR 4.1). The median time between the two CT-scan examined was 188 days (IQR 48). Skeletal muscle index (SMI) decreased after NAT, with a median delta of −7.8 cm2/m2 (p < 0.05). Major complications occurred more frequently in patients with a lower pre-NAT SMI (p = 0.035) and in those who gained in subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) compartment during NAT (p = 0.043). Patients with a gain in SMI experienced fewer major postoperative complications (p = 0.002). The presence of Low muscle mass after NAT was associated with a longer hospital stay [Beta 5.1, 95%CI (1.5, 8.7), p = 0.006]. An increase in SMI from 35 to 40 cm2/m2 was a protective factor with respect to overall postoperative complications [OR 0.43, 95% (CI 0.21, 0.86), p < 0.001]. None of the immunonutritional indexes investigated predicted the postoperative outcome. Conclusion: Body composition changes during NAT are associated with surgical outcome in PC patients who receive pancreaticoduodenectomy after NAT. An increase in SMI during NAT should be favored to ameliorate the postoperative outcome. Immunonutritional indexes did not show to be capable of predicting the surgical outcome

New understandings of the genetic basis of isolated idiopathic central hypogonadism

Idiopathic hypogonadotropic hypogonadism is a rare disease that is characterized by delayed/absent puberty and/or infertility due to an insufficient stimulation of an otherwise normal pituitary-gonadal axis by gonadotrophin-releasing hormone (GnRH) action. Because reduced or normal luteinizing hormone (LH)/follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) levels may be observed in the affected patients, the term idiopathic central hypogonadism (ICH) appears to be more appropriate. This disease should be distinguished from central hypogonadism that is combined with other pituitary deficiencies. Isolated ICH has a complex pathogenesis and is fivefold more prevalent in males. ICH frequently appears in a sporadic form, but several familial cases have also been reported. This finding, in conjunction with the description of numerous pathogenetic gene variants and the generation of several knockout models, supports the existence of a strong genetic component. ICH may be associated with several morphogenetic abnormalities, which include osmic defects that, with ICH, constitute the cardinal manifestations of Kallmann syndrome (KS). KS accounts for approximately 40% of the total ICH cases and has been generally considered to be a distinct subgroup. However, the description of several pedigrees, which include relatives who are affected either with isolated osmic defects, KS, or normo-osmic ICH (nICH), justifies the emerging idea that ICH is a complex genetic disease that is characterized by variable expressivity and penetrance. In this context, either multiple gene variants or environmental factors and epigenetic modifications may contribute to the variable disease manifestations. We review the genetic mechanisms that are presently known to be involved in ICH pathogenesis and provide a clinical overview of the 227 cases that have been collected by the collaborating centres of the Italian ICH Network

Diagnosis, treatment and prevention of pediatric obesity: consensus position statement of the Italian Society for Pediatric Endocrinology and Diabetology and the Italian Society of Pediatrics

The Italian Consensus Position Statement on Diagnosis, Treatment and Prevention of Obesity in Children and Adolescents integrates and updates the previous guidelines to deliver an evidence based approach to the disease. The following areas were reviewed: (1) obesity definition and causes of secondary obesity; (2) physical and psychosocial comorbidities; (3) treatment and care settings; (4) prevention. The main novelties deriving from the Italian experience lie in the definition, screening of the cardiometabolic and hepatic risk factors and the endorsement of a staged approach to treatment. The evidence based efficacy of behavioral intervention versus pharmacological or surgical treatments is reported. Lastly, the prevention by promoting healthful diet, physical activity, sleep pattern, and environment is strongly recommended since the intrauterine phase

Nota a Cass., sez. un., 30 settembre 2010, n. 36212, G., Misure cautelari in sede di udienza di convalida e garanzie difensive dell\u2019arrestato o del fermato.

Le Sezioni Unite sanano un potenziale vulnus alle garanzie difensive dell\u2019arrestato o del fermato cui venga applicata una misura cautelare in sede di udienza di convalida. Il quesito in ordine al quale interviene la decisione attiene alla configurabilit\ue0 del diritto in capo al difensore della persona fermata o arrestata di prendere visione, prima dello svolgimento dell\u2019interrogatorio in sede di convalida, delle istanze cautelari, nonch\ue9 degli elementi su cui le stesse si fondano, che siano state trasmesse dal pubblico ministero al giudice dell\u2019udienza di convalida, secondo quanto stabilito dall\u2019art. 390 comma 3 bis c.p.p. In ipotesi di negazione dell\u2019esercizio di suddetta facolt\ue0, era controverso se l\u2019interrogatorio di garanzia espletato nel corso dell\u2019udienza fosse valido ovvero se l\u2019interdizione della tempestiva conoscenza da parte del legale dell\u2019istanza cautelare e della documentazione annessa determinasse una violazione del diritto di difesa e, conseguentemente, la nullit\ue0 a regime intermedio dell\u2019interrogatorio, la quale, ove prontamente dedotta, avrebbe comportato la perdita di efficacia della misura, ai sensi dell\u2019art. 302 c.p.p. Secondo il supremo Consesso, alla luce dell\u2019equipollenza che la disciplina codicistica istituisce tra l\u2019interrogatorio di garanzia di cui all\u2019art. 294 c.p.p. e quello espletato in occasione della convalida della misura pre-cautelare ex art. 391 c.p.p., non pare revocabile in dubbio l\u2019assunto secondo cui la posizione dell\u2019indagato, quanto al diritto di articolare la propria difesa cognita causa, debba essere equivalente nelle due sedi