Genomic selection using random regressions on known and latent environmental covariates

KEY MESSAGE: The integration of known and latent environmental covariates within a single-stage genomic selection approach provides breeders with an informative and practical framework to utilise genotype by environment interaction for prediction into current and future environments. ABSTRACT: This paper develops a single-stage genomic selection approach which integrates known and latent environmental covariates within a special factor analytic framework. The factor analytic linear mixed model of Smith et al. (2001) is an effective method for analysing multi-environment trial (MET) datasets, but has limited practicality since the underlying factors are latent so the modelled genotype by environment interaction (GEI) is observable, rather than predictable. The advantage of using random regressions on known environmental covariates, such as soil moisture and daily temperature, is that the modelled GEI becomes predictable. The integrated factor analytic linear mixed model (IFA-LMM) developed in this paper includes a model for predictable and observable GEI in terms of a joint set of known and latent environmental covariates. The IFA-LMM is demonstrated on a late-stage cotton breeding MET dataset from Bayer CropScience. The results show that the known covariates predominately capture crossover GEI and explain 34.4% of the overall genetic variance. The most notable covariates are maximum downward solar radiation (10.1%), average cloud cover (4.5%) and maximum temperature (4.0%). The latent covariates predominately capture non-crossover GEI and explain 40.5% of the overall genetic variance. The results also show that the average prediction accuracy of the IFA-LMM is [Formula: see text] higher than conventional random regression models for current environments and [Formula: see text] higher for future environments. The IFA-LMM is therefore an effective method for analysing MET datasets which also utilises crossover and non-crossover GEI for genomic prediction into current and future environments. This is becoming increasingly important with the emergence of rapidly changing environments and climate change. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00122-022-04186-w

Genomic selection strategies for clonally propagated crops

For genomic selection (GS) in clonal breeding programs to be effective, parents should be selected based on genomic predicted cross-performance unless dominance is negligible. Genomic prediction of cross-performance enables efficient exploitation of the additive and dominance value simultaneously. Here, we compared different GS strategies for clonally propagated crops with diploid (-like) meiotic behavior, using strawberry as an example. We used stochastic simulation to evaluate six combinations of three breeding programs and two parent selection methods. The three breeding programs included (1) a breeding program that introduced GS in the first clonal stage, and (2) two variations of a two-part breeding program with one and three crossing cycles per year, respectively. The two parent selection methods were (1) parent selection based on genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) and (2) parent selection based on genomic predicted cross-performance (GPCP). Selection of parents based on GPCP produced faster genetic gain than selection of parents based on GEBVs because it reduced inbreeding when the dominance degree increased. The two-part breeding programs with one and three crossing cycles per year using GPCP always produced the most genetic gain unless dominance was negligible. We conclude that (1) in clonal breeding programs with GS, parents should be selected based on GPCP, and (2) a two-part breeding program with parent selection based on GPCP to rapidly drive population improvement has great potential to improve breeding clonally propagated crops

Maximizing the potential of multi-parental crop populations.

Most agriculturally significant crop traits are quantitatively inherited which limits the ease and efficiency of trait dissection. Multi-parent populations overcome the limitations of traditional trait mapping and offer new potential to accurately define the genetic basis of complex crop traits. The increasing popularity and use of nested association mapping (NAM) and multi-parent advanced generation intercross (MAGIC) populations raises questions about the optimal design and allocation of resources in their creation. In this paper we review strategies for the creation of multi-parent populations and describe two complementary in silico studies addressing the design and construction of NAM and MAGIC populations. The first simulates the selection of diverse founder parents and the second the influence of multi-parent crossing schemes (and number of founders) on haplotype creation and diversity. We present and apply two open software resources to simulate alternate strategies for the development of multi-parent populations

Genomic Selection for Processing and End-Use Quality Traits in the CIMMYT Spring Bread Wheat Breeding Program

Citation: Battenfield, S. D., Guzman, C., Gaynor, R. C., Singh, R. P., Pena, R. J., Dreisigacker, S., . . . Poland, J. A. (2016). Genomic Selection for Processing and End-Use Quality Traits in the CIMMYT Spring Bread Wheat Breeding Program. Plant Genome, 9(2), 12. doi:10.3835/plantgenome2016.01.0005Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars must possess suitable end-use quality for release and consumer acceptability. However, breeding for quality traits is often considered a secondary target relative to yield largely because of amount of seed needed and expense. Without testing and selection, many undesirable materials are advanced, expending additional resources. Here, we develop and validate whole-genome prediction models for end-use quality phenotypes in the CIMMYT bread wheat breeding program. Model accuracy was tested using forward prediction on breeding lines (n = 5520) tested in unbalanced yield trials from 2009 to 2015 at Ciudad Obregon, Sonora, Mexico. Quality parameters included test weight, 1000-kernel weight, hardness, grain and flour protein, flour yield, sodium dodecyl sulfate sedimentation, Mixograph and Alveograph performance, and loaf volume. In general, prediction accuracy substantially increased over time as more data was available to train the model. Reflecting practical implementation of genomic selection (GS) in the breeding program, forward prediction accuracies (r) for quality parameters were assessed in 2015 and ranged from 0.32 (grain hardness) to 0.62 (mixing time). Increased selection intensity was possible with GS since more entries can be genotyped than phenotyped and expected genetic gain was 1.4 to 2.7 times higher across all traits than phenotypic selection. Given the limitations in measuring many lines for quality, we conclude that GS is a powerful tool to facilitate early generation selection for end-use quality in wheat, leaving larger populations for selection on yield during advanced testing and leading to better gain for both quality and yield in bread wheat breeding programs

Genomic and phenotypic characterization of finger millet indicates a complex diversification history

Advances in sequencing technologies mean that insights into crop diversification can now be explored in crops beyond major staples. We use a genome assembly of finger millet, an allotetraploid orphan crop, to analyze DArTseq single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at the whole and sub‐genome level. A set of 8778 SNPs and 13 agronomic traits was used to characterize a diverse panel of 423 landraces from Africa and Asia. Through principal component analysis (PCA) and discriminant analysis of principal components, four distinct groups of accessions were identified that coincided with the primary geographic regions of finger millet cultivation. Notably, East Africa, presumed to be the crop's origin, exhibited the lowest genetic diversity. The PCA of phenotypic data also revealed geographic differentiation, albeit with differing relationships among geographic areas than indicated with genomic data. Further exploration of the sub‐genomes A and B using neighbor‐joining trees revealed distinct features that provide supporting evidence for the complex evolutionary history of finger millet. Although genome‐wide association study found only a limited number of significant marker‐trait associations, a clustering approach based on the distribution of marker effects obtained from a ridge regression genomic model was employed to investigate trait complexity. This analysis uncovered two distinct clusters. Overall, the findings suggest that finger millet has undergone complex and context‐specific diversification, indicative of a lengthy domestication history. These analyses provide insights for the future development of finger millet

Clonal diploid and autopolyploid breeding strategies to harness heterosis: insights from stochastic simulation

Breeding can change the dominance as well as additive genetic value of populations, thus utilizing heterosis. A common hybrid breeding strategy is reciprocal recurrent selection (RRS), in which parents of hybrids are typically recycled within pools based on general combining ability. However, the relative performances of RRS and other breeding strategies have not been thoroughly compared. RRS can have relatively increased costs and longer cycle lengths, but these are sometimes outweighed by its ability to harness heterosis due to dominance. Here, we used stochastic simulation to compare genetic gain per unit cost of RRS, terminal crossing, recurrent selection on breeding value, and recurrent selection on cross performance considering different amounts of population heterosis due to dominance, relative cycle lengths, time horizons, estimation methods, selection intensities, and ploidy levels. In diploids with phenotypic selection at high intensity, whether RRS was the optimal breeding strategy depended on the initial population heterosis. However, in diploids with rapid-cycling genomic selection at high intensity, RRS was the optimal breeding strategy after 50 years over almost all amounts of initial population heterosis under the study assumptions. Diploid RRS required more population heterosis to outperform other strategies as its relative cycle length increased and as selection intensity and time horizon decreased. The optimal strategy depended on selection intensity, a proxy for inbreeding rate. Use of diploid fully inbred parents vs. outbred parents with RRS typically did not affect genetic gain. In autopolyploids, RRS typically did not outperform one-pool strategies regardless of the initial population heterosis

Increasing genomic-enabled prediction accuracy by modeling genotype × environment interactions in kansas wheat

Citation: Jarquín, Diego, Cristiano Lemes da Silva, R. Chris Gaynor, Jesse Poland, Allan Fritz, Reka Howard, Sarah Battenfield, and Jose Crossa. “Increasing Genomic-Enabled Prediction Accuracy by Modeling Genotype × Environment Interactions in Kansas Wheat.” The Plant Genome 10, no. 2 (July 2017): plantgenome2016.12.0130. https://doi.org/10.3835/plantgenome2016.12.0130.Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) breeding programs test experimental lines in multiple locations over multiple years to get an accurate assessment of grain yield and yield stability. Selections in early generations of the breeding pipeline are based on information from only one or few locations and thus materials are advanced with little knowledge of the genotype × environment interaction (G × E) effects. Later, large trials are conducted in several locations to assess the performance of more advanced lines across environments. Genomic selection (GS) models that include G × E covariates allow us to borrow information not only from related materials, but also from historical and correlated environments to better predict performance within and across specific environments. We used reaction norm models with several cross-validation schemes to demonstrate the increased breeding efficiency of Kansas State University’s hard red winter wheat breeding program. The GS reaction norm models line effect (L) + environment effect (E), L + E + genotype environment (G), and L + E + G + (G × E) effects) showed high accuracy values (>0.4) when predicting the yield performance in untested environments, sites or both. The GS model L + E + G + (G × E) presented the highest prediction ability (r = 0.54) when predicting yield in incomplete field trials for locations with a moderate number of lines. The difficulty of predicting future years (forward prediction) is indicated by the relatively low accuracy (r = 0.171) seen even when environments with 300+ lines were included