Deriving Target Selection Rules from Endogenously Selected Samples

One of the aims of direct marketing in practice is to target the most profitable customers in the database at hand. This selection is often done based on observed behavior in the past. As a consequence, databases arising from the responses to direct mailings are not a random sample from all potential respondents. When not all heterogeneity is observed, part of the target selection rule will be based on the unobserved heterogeneity, so selection is endogenous. Treating an endogenously selected sample as a random sample results in inconsistent parameter estimates, which in general also harms the predictive performance of the model. We develop an adjustment to the likelihood of the model that corrects for the endogenous sample selection. We apply this technique to the selection of mail targets for a charitable organization. In the application we also show that, based on a model for the response rate and the amount donated simultaneously, we can create a target selection rule that maximizes expected revenues. Such a selection rule outperforms selection rules based on response rates or donated amount only. The traditional approach of maximizing response is therefore not the optimal approach to target selection.econometric models;direct marketing;target selection;endogeneity;sample selection

Direct Mailing Decisions for a Dutch Fundraiser

Direct marketing firms want to transfer their message as efficientlyas possible in order to obtain a profitable long-term relationshipwith individual customers. Much attention has been paid to addressselection of existing customers and on identifying new profitableprospects. Less attention has been paid to the optimal frequency ofthe contacts with customers. We provide a decision support system thathelps the direct mailer to determine mailing frequency for activecustomers. The system observes the mailing pattern of these customersin terms of the well known R(ecency), F(requency) and M(onetary)variables. The underlying model is based on an optimization model forthe frequency of direct mailings. The system provides the directmailer with tools to define preferred response behavior and advisesthe direct mailer on the mailing strategy that will steer thecustomers towards this preferred response behavior.decision support system;direct marketing;Markov decision process

Edge Elimination in TSP Instances

The Traveling Salesman Problem is one of the best studied NP-hard problems in combinatorial optimization. Powerful methods have been developed over the last 60 years to find optimum solutions to large TSP instances. The largest TSP instance so far that has been solved optimally has 85,900 vertices. Its solution required more than 136 years of total CPU time using the branch-and-cut based Concorde TSP code [1]. In this paper we present graph theoretic results that allow to prove that some edges of a TSP instance cannot occur in any optimum TSP tour. Based on these results we propose a combinatorial algorithm to identify such edges. The runtime of the main part of our algorithm is $O(n^2 \log n)$ for an n-vertex TSP instance. By combining our approach with the Concorde TSP solver we are able to solve a large TSPLIB instance more than 11 times faster than Concorde alone

Further Constraints on Thermal Quiescent X-ray Emission from SAX J1808.4-3658

We observed SAX J1808.4-3658 (1808), the first accreting millisecond pulsar, in deep quiescence with XMM-Newton and (near-simultaneously) Gemini-South. The X-ray spectrum of 1808 is similar to that observed in quiescence in 2001 and 2006, describable by an absorbed power-law with photon index 1.74+-0.11 and unabsorbed X-ray luminosity L_X=7.9+-0.7*10^{31} ergs/s, for N_H=1.3*10^{21} cm^{-2}. Fitting all the quiescent XMM-Newton X-ray spectra with a power-law, we constrain any thermally emitting neutron star with a hydrogen atmosphere to have a temperature less than 30 eV and L_{NS}(0.01-10 keV)<6.2*10^{30} ergs/s. A thermal plasma model also gives an acceptable fit to the continuum. Adding a neutron star component to the plasma model produces less stringent constraints on the neutron star; a temperature of 36^{+4}_{-8} eV and L_{NS}(0.01-10 keV)=1.3^{+0.6}_{-0.8}*10^{31} ergs/s. In the framework of the current theory of neutron star heating and cooling, the constraints on the thermal luminosity of 1808 and 1H 1905+000 require strongly enhanced cooling in the cores of these neutron stars. We compile data from the literature on the mass transfer rates and quiescent thermal flux of the largest possible sample of transient neutron star LMXBs. We identify a thermal component in the quiescent spectrum of the accreting millisecond pulsar IGR J00291+5934, which is consistent with the standard cooling model. The contrast between the cooling rates of IGR J00291+5934 and 1808 suggests that 1808 may have a significantly larger mass. This can be interpreted as arising from differences in the binary evolution history or initial neutron star mass in these otherwise similar systems.Comment: ApJ in press, 7 pages, 2 color figure

High-resolution NMR structure of an RNA model system : the 14-mer cUUCGg tetraloop hairpin RNA

We present a high-resolution nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) solution structure of a 14-mer RNA hairpin capped by cUUCGg tetraloop. This short and very stable RNA presents an important model system for the study of RNA structure and dynamics using NMR spectroscopy, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and RNA force-field development. The extraordinary high precision of the structure (root mean square deviation of 0.3 Å) could be achieved by measuring and incorporating all currently accessible NMR parameters, including distances derived from nuclear Overhauser effect (NOE) intensities, torsion-angle dependent homonuclear and heteronuclear scalar coupling constants, projection-angle-dependent cross-correlated relaxation rates and residual dipolar couplings. The structure calculations were performed with the program CNS using the ARIA setup and protocols. The structure quality was further improved by a final refinement in explicit water using OPLS force field parameters for non-bonded interactions and charges. In addition, the 2'-hydroxyl groups have been assigned and their conformation has been analyzed based on NOE contacts. The structure currently defines a benchmark for the precision and accuracy amenable to RNA structure determination by NMR spectroscopy. Here, we discuss the impact of various NMR restraints on structure quality and discuss in detail the dynamics of this system as previously determined

Faint galactic X-ray binaries

We present a short overview of the properties of faint Galactic X‐ray binaries. We place emphasis on current classification scenarios. One of the important parameters for the faint sources is their intrinsic luminosity. In the case of low‐mass X‐ray binaries it has recently been realised that besides a phase of radius expansion, the duration of type I X‐ray bursts can be used as a primer for the source luminosity in some cases. Further, we show that a very low equivalent width of hydrogen and helium emission lines in the optical spectrum alone is not a tell‐tale sign for an ultra‐compact system. Finally, we list and discuss some unusual sources that could be X‐ray binaries

LOFT as a discovery machine for jetted Tidal Disruption Events

This is a White Paper in support of the mission concept of the Large Observatory for X-ray Timing (LOFT), proposed as a medium-sized ESA mission. We discuss the potential of LOFT for the study of jetted tidal disruption events. For a summary, we refer to the paper.Comment: White Paper in Support of the Mission Concept of the Large Observatory for X-ray Timin

Two fast X-ray transients in archival Chandra data

We present the discovery of two new X-ray transients in archival Chandra data. The first transient, XRT 110103, occurred in January 2011 and shows a sharp rise of at least three orders of magnitude in count rate in less than 10 s, a flat peak for about 20 s and decays by two orders of magnitude in the next 60 s. We find no optical or infrared counterpart to this event in preexisting survey data or in an observation taken by the SIRIUS instrument at the Infrared Survey Facility 2.1 yr after the transient, providing limiting magnitudes of J>18.1, H>17.6 and Ks>16.3. This event shows similarities to the transient previously reported in Jonker et al. which was interpreted as the possible tidal disruption of a white dwarf by an intermediate mass black hole. We discuss the possibility that these transients originate from the same type of event. If we assume these events are related a rough estimate of the rates gives 1.4*10^5 per year over the whole sky with a peak 0.3-7 keV X-ray flux greater than 2*10^-10 erg cm^-2 s^-1 . The second transient, XRT 120830, occurred in August 2012 and shows a rise of at least three orders of magnitude in count rate and a subsequent decay of around one order of magnitude all within 10 s, followed by a slower quasi-exponential decay over the remaining 30 ks of the observation. We detect a likely infrared counterpart with magnitudes J=16.70+/-0.06, H=15.92+/-0.04 and Ks=15.37+/-0.06 which shows an average proper motion of 74+/-19 milliarcsec per year compared to archival 2MASS observations. The JHKs magnitudes, proper motion and X-ray flux of XRT 120830 are consistent with a bright flare from a nearby late M or early L dwarf.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS, 6 pages, 5 figure

High-resolution NMR structure of an RNA model system : the 14-mer cUUCGg tetraloop hairpin RNA

We present a high-resolution nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) solution structure of a 14-mer RNA hairpin capped by cUUCGg tetraloop. This short and very stable RNA presents an important model system for the study of RNA structure and dynamics using NMR spectroscopy, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and RNA force-field development. The extraordinary high precision of the structure (root mean square deviation of 0.3 Å) could be achieved by measuring and incorporating all currently accessible NMR parameters, including distances derived from nuclear Overhauser effect (NOE) intensities, torsion-angle dependent homonuclear and heteronuclear scalar coupling constants, projection-angle-dependent cross-correlated relaxation rates and residual dipolar couplings. The structure calculations were performed with the program CNS using the ARIA setup and protocols. The structure quality was further improved by a final refinement in explicit water using OPLS force field parameters for non-bonded interactions and charges. In addition, the 2'-hydroxyl groups have been assigned and their conformation has been analyzed based on NOE contacts. The structure currently defines a benchmark for the precision and accuracy amenable to RNA structure determination by NMR spectroscopy. Here, we discuss the impact of various NMR restraints on structure quality and discuss in detail the dynamics of this system as previously determined

Constraints on Thermal X-ray Radiation from SAX J1808.4-3658 and Implications for Neutron Star Neutrino Emission

Thermal X-ray radiation from neutron star soft X-ray transients in quiescence provides the strongest constraints on the cooling rates of neutron stars, and thus on the interior composition and properties of matter in the cores of neutron stars. We analyze new (2006) and archival (2001) XMM-Newton observations of the accreting millisecond pulsar SAX J1808.4-3658 in quiescence, which provide the most stringent constraints to date. The X-ray spectrum of SAX J1808.4-3658 in the 2006 observation is consistent with a power-law of photon index 1.83\pm0.17, without requiring the presence of a blackbody-like component from a neutron star atmosphere. Our 2006 observation shows a slightly lower 0.5-10 keV X-ray luminosity, at a level of 68^{+15}_{-13}% that inferred from the 2001 observation. Simultaneous fitting of all available XMM data allows a constraint on the quiescent neutron star (0.01-10 keV) luminosity of L_{NS}<1.1*10^{31} erg/s. This limit excludes some current models of neutrino emission mediated by pion condensates, and provides further evidence for additional cooling processes, such as neutrino emission via direct Urca processes involving nucleons and/or hyperons, in the cores of massive neutron stars.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures; slight revisions, accepted by Ap