Book reviews

Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

Services diagnostic and needs assessment study

Liberalisation of trade in services and associated domestic reforms is fundamental to the realisation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). However, this requires real (‘on the ground’) liberalisation, not simply “on paper” liberalisation in the form of commitments under the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS), a sideshow in services liberalisation. The decision by leaders to form an AEC covering also the free flow of services has put the emphasis very much on ensuring each ASEAN Member State (AMS) removes restrictions affecting trade in services (including related foreign investment) and implement related reforms. However, the diagnostic analysis presented in this Services Diagnostic and Needs Assessment Study (SDNAS), including in the in-country reports, suggests this is not happening, or at least is going very slowly, especially when set against the adopted start date for the AEC of 2015. Hence, key and effective technical assistance and capacity building is needed to advance ‘on the ground’ liberalisation of services and related reforms. The in-country fieldwork and other analysis undertaken in the SDNAS helped identify constraints and provided a list of potential technical assistance and capacity building projects to help address them, both from a primarily cross-cutting but also a sectoral perspective. The SDNAS has also adopted an economic framework based on the fundamental benefits of unilateral liberalisation and a strategic structured approach, to identify key areas (‘umbrellas’) needing technical assistance and capacity building activities, such as strengthening the evidence base, promoting transparency, developing strategies and planning, and raising understanding and awareness. Key activity clusters were also identified within these three ‘umbrellas’, such as policy analysis, services policy visions, and organisations for dialogues, respectively. Individual priority technical assistance and capacity building project proposals within these clusters were determined using a cost-benefit analytical approach. The SNDAS importantly recommends the need to re-balance much of the technical assistance and capacity building activities away from being directed at servicing the AFAS trade negotiations and focusing on ‘on-paper’ liberalisation towards efforts to build transparency and fundamental support for services trade liberalisation and related reforms in AMS. This is what is required to achieve the necessary ‘on-the-ground’ changes to achieve the AEC. This is consistent with international experience that significant ‘on-the-ground’ services liberalisation and related reforms requires unilateral efforts, and that trade negotiations have generally failed to deliver such changes. With this in mind, the SNDAS has developed and recommended a number of detailed proposed technical assistance and capacity building project templates

Advances in the homogenization of daily peak wind gusts: an application to the Australian series

Póster presentado en: EGU General Assembly 2018 celebrada del 8 al 13 de abril en Viena, Austria.Daily Peak Wind Gusts (DPWG) time-series are valuable data for evaluation of wind related hazard risk to the population and different economic sectors. Yet wind time-series are prone to be affected by inhomogeneities temporally and spatially (e.g. through change of instruments at a site compared to surrounding sites) that may mislead the studies of their variability and trends. The aim of this work is to present the advances in the homogenization of DPWG by analyzing 548 sites time-series across Australia covering the 1941-2016 time period. Due to the low correlation coefficients between these series, especially in the first decades when the station density is much lower, the average wind speed data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis were tried as reference series. However, their lower correlations with the DPWG data suggests avoiding this approach. We proposed a robust monthly homogenization using the R package Climatol, which detected 353 break-points at the monthly scale. Some of them were supported by the history of the stations, but detailed analysis of the metadata of 35 selected stations did not find a good correspondence since many changes do not necessarily produce inhomogeneities. When NCEP/NCAR reanalysis are used as references, more break-points are detected around 2003, but it is not clear whether they are due to a general change of the DPWG algorithm in the observation network or rather an artifact due to inhomogeneities in the reanalysis series. The monthly dates of the detected break-points were used in a new application of the Climatol package to adjust the series at daily basis, yielding a homogenized and filled DPWG database for assessing the variability of extreme wind events. Resultant trends of the homogenized DPWG series showed the benefits of the homogenization in the form a much lower dispersion of their values.This work has been also supported by the Project “Detection and attribution of changes in extreme wind gusts ove rland” (2017-03780) funded by the Swedish Research Council, and the MULTITEST (Multiple verification of automatic software homogenizing monthly temperatura and precipitation series; CGL2014-52901-P) Project ,funded b ythe Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity

Design and characterization of AmLi neutron sources for the LZ experiment

In this paper we describe the development, testing, and characterization of three low-emission rate AmLi neutron sources. The sources are used to calibrate the nuclear recoil response of the LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) dark matter experiment. The sources' neutron emission rate was measured using $^{3}$He proportional tubes. The sources' gamma emissions were characterized using a high-purity germanium (HPGe) detector. Source-validated GEANT4 Monte Carlo simulations allowed to calibrate the Ge and neutron detector responses.Comment: 20 pages, 13 figures, 4 tables, revised manuscripts after accommodating the reviewer's comment

An approach to homogenize daily peak wind gusts: an application to the Australian series

Daily Peak Wind Gust (DPWG) time series are important for the evaluation of wind-related hazard risks to different socioeconomic and environmental sectors. Yet, wind time series analyses can be impacted by several artefacts, both tempo-rally and spatially, which may introduce inhomogeneities that mislead the study of their decadal variability and trends. The aim of this study is to present a strategy in the homogenization of a challenging climate extreme such as the DPWG using 548 time series across Australia for 1941–2016. This automatic homogenization of DPWG is implemented in the recently developed Version 3.1 of the R package Climatol. This approach is an advance in homogenization of climate records as it identifies 353 break points based on monthly data, splits the daily series into homo- geneous subperiods, and homogenizes them without needing the monthly corrections. The major advantages of this homogenization strategy are its ability to: (a) automatically homogenize a large number of DPWG series, including short-term ones and without needing site metadata (e.g., the change in observational equipment in 2010/2011 was correctly identified); (b) use the closest reference series even not sharing a common period with candidate series or presenting missing data; and (c) supply homogenized series, correcting anomalous data (quality control by spatial coherence), and filling in all the missing data. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind speed data were also trialled in aiding homogenization given the station density was very low during the early decades of the record; however, reanalysis data did not improve the homogenization. Application of this approach found a reduced range of DPWG trends based on site data, and an increased negative regional trend of this climate extreme, compared to raw data and homogenized data using NCEP/NCAR. The analysis produced the first homogenized DPWG dataset to assess and attribute long-term variability of extreme winds across Australia.C.A.-M. received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 703733 (STILLING project). This work was also supported by the project “Detection and attribution of changes in extreme wind gusts over land” (2017-03780) funded by the Vetenskapsrådet, and the MULTITEST (Multiple verification of automatic software homogenizing monthly temperature and precipitation series; CGL2014-52901-P) project, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity

A new approach to homogenize daily peak wind gusts: an application to the Australian series

Póster presentado en: EMS Annual Meeting - European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2018, celebrado en Budapest del 3 al 7 de septiembre de 2018.Daily Peak Wind Gusts (DPWG) time-series are valuable data for the evaluation of wind related hazard risks to different socioeconomic and environmental sectors. Yet wind time-series analyses can be impacted by several artefacts, both temporally and spatially, that may introduce inhomogeneities that mislead the studies of their decadal variability and trends. The aim of this study is to present a new strategy in the homogenization of a challenging climate extreme such as the DPWG using 548 time-series across Australia for 1941-2016. This automatic homogenization of DPWG is implemented in the recently developed Version 3.0 of the R package Climatol. The new approach is an advance in homogenization of climate records as identifies 353 breakpoints based on monthly data, splits the daily series into homogeneous sub-periods, and homogenizes them without needing the monthly corrections. The major advantages of this homogenization strategy are its ability to: (i) automatically homogenize a large number of DPWG series, including short-term ones and without needing site metadata (e.g., the change in observational equipment in 2010/2011 was correctly identified); (ii) use the closest reference series even not sharing a common period with candidate series or presenting missing data; and (iii) supply homogenized series, correcting anomalous data (quality control by spatial coherence), and filling in all the missing data. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind speed data was also trialled in aiding homogenization given the station density was very low during the early decades of the record; however, reanalysis data did not improve the homogenization. Application of the new approach found a reduced range of DPWG trends based on site data, and an increased negative regional trend of this climate extreme, compared to raw data and homogenized data using NCEP/NCAR. The analysis produced the first homogenized DPWG dataset to assess and attribute long-term variability of extreme winds across Australia.This work has been also supported by the Project “Detection and attribution of changes inextreme wind gusts over land ”(2017-03780) funded by the Swedish Research Council, and the MULTITEST (Multiple verification of automatic software homogenizing monthly temperatura and precipitation series; CGL2014-52901-P) project, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity

Trends of daily peak wind gusts in Australia, 1948-2016

Póster presentado en: EGU General Assembly 2019 celebrada del 7 al 12 de abril en Viena, Austria.Daily Peak Wind Gust (DPWG) time series are important for the evaluation of wind-related hazard risks to different socioeconomic and environmental sectors. Yet wind time series analyses can be impacted by several artefacts, such as anemometer changes and site location changes, both temporally and spatially, that may introduce inhomogeneities that mislead the study of their decadal variability and trends. A previous study (EGU2018-14546 and Azorin-Molina et al. 2019. Int. J. Climatol. 39(4), 2260-2277) presented a strategy in the homogenization of this challenging climate extreme such as the DPWG. The automatic homogenization of this DPWG dataset was implemented in the recently developed version 3.1 of the R package Climatol which: (i) represents an advance in homogenization of this extreme climate record; and (ii) produced the first homogenized DPWG dataset to assess and attribute long-term variability of extreme winds across Australia. Given the inconsistencies of wind gust trends under the widespread decline in near-surface wind speed (stilling), the aim of this poster presentation is to show DPWG trends in 35 Bureau of Meteorology operated stations for 1948-2016, with particular focus on the spatiotemporal magnitude (wind speed maxima) of DPWG at annual, seasonal and monthly timescales.This work has been supported by the project “Detection and attribution of changes in extreme wind gusts over land” (2017-03780) funded by the Swedish Research Council

A decline of observed daily peak wind gusts with distinct seasonality in Australia, 1941–2016

Wind gusts represent one of the main natural hazards due to their increasing socioeconomic and environmental impacts on, for example, human safety, maritime–terrestrial–aviation activities, engineering and insurance applications, and energy production. However, the existing scientific studies focused on observed wind gusts are relatively few compared to those on mean wind speed. In Australia, previous studies found a slowdown of near-surface mean wind speed, termed ‘‘stilling,’’ but a lack of knowledge on the multidecadal variability and trends in the magnitude (wind speed maxima) and frequency (exceeding the 90th percentile) of wind gusts exists. A new homogenized daily peak wind gusts (DPWG) dataset containing 548 time series across Australia for 1941–2016 is analyzed to determine long-term trends in wind gusts. Here we show that both the magnitude and frequency of DPWG declined across much of the continent, with a distinct seasonality: negative trends in summer–spring–autumn and weak negative or nontrending (even positive) trends in winter. We demonstrate that ocean–atmosphere oscillations such as the Indian Ocean dipole and the southern annular mode partly modulate decadal-scale variations of DPWG. The long-term declining trend of DPWG is consistent with the ‘‘stilling’’ phenomenon, suggesting that global warming may have reduced Australian wind gusts

WMO Assessment of Weather and Climate Mortality Extremes: Lightning, Tropical Cyclones, Tornadoes, and Hail

A World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Commission for Climatology international panel was convened to examine and assess the available evidence associated with five weather-related mortality extremes: 1) lightning (indirect), 2) lightning (direct), 3) tropical cyclones, 4) tornadoes, and 5) hail. After recommending for acceptance of only events after 1873 (the formation of the predecessor of the WMO), the committee evaluated and accepted the following mortality extremes: 1) “highest mortality (indirect strike) associated with lightning” as the 469 people killed in a lightning-caused oil tank fire in Dronka, Egypt, on 2 November 1994; 2) “highest mortality directly associated with a single lightning flash” as the lightning flash that killed 21 people in a hut in Manica Tribal Trust Lands, Zimbabwe (at time of incident, eastern Rhodesia), on 23 December 1975; 3) “highest mortality associated with a tropical cyclone” as the Bangladesh (at time of incident, East Pakistan) cyclone of 12–13 November 1970 with an estimated death toll of 300 000 people; 4) “highest mortality associated with a tornado” as the 26 April 1989 tornado that destroyed the Manikganj district, Bangladesh, with an estimated death toll of 1300 individuals; and 5) “highest mortality associated with a hailstorm” as the storm occurring near Moradabad, India, on 30 April 1888 that killed 246 people. These mortality extremes serve to further atmospheric science by giving baseline mortality values for comparison to future weather-related catastrophes and also allow for adjudication of new meteorological information as it becomes available

Pre-pregnancy predictors of hypertension in pregnancy among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women in north Queensland, Australia; a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND Compared to other Australian women, Indigenous women are frequently at greater risk for hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. We examined pre-pregnancy factors that may predict hypertension in pregnancy in a cohort of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women in north Queensland. METHODS Data on a cohort of 1009 Indigenous women of childbearing age (15–44 years) who participated in a 1998–2000 health screening program in north Queensland were combined with 1998–2008 Queensland hospitalisations data using probabilistic data linkage. Data on the women in the cohort who were hospitalised for birth (n = 220) were further combined with Queensland perinatal data which identified those diagnosed with hypertension in pregnancy. RESULTS Of 220 women who gave birth, 22 had hypertension in the pregnancy after their health check. The mean age of women with and without hypertension was similar (23.7 years and 23.9 years respectively) however Aboriginal women were more affected compared to Torres Strait Islanders. Pre-pregnancy adiposity and elevated blood pressure at the health screening program were predictors of a pregnancy affected by hypertension. After adjusting for age and ethnicity, each 1 cm increase in waist circumference showed a 4% increased risk for hypertension in pregnancy (PR 1.04; 95% CI; 1.02-1.06); each 1 point increase in BMI showed a 9% adjusted increase in risk (1.09; 1.04-1.14). For each 1 mmHg increase in baseline systolic blood pressure there was an age and ethnicity adjusted 6% increase in risk and each 1 mmHg increase in diastolic blood pressure showed a 7% increase in risk (1.06; 1.03-1.09 and 1.07; 1.03-1.11 respectively). Among those free of diabetes at baseline, the presence of the metabolic syndrome (International Diabetes Federation criteria) predicted over a three-fold increase in age-ethnicity-adjusted risk (3.5; 1.50-8.17). CONCLUSIONS Pre-pregnancy adiposity and features of the metabolic syndrome among these young Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women track strongly to increased risk of hypertension in pregnancy with associated risks to the health of babies.Sandra K Campbell, John Lynch, Adrian Esterman and Robyn McDermot