Real Time Changes in Monetary Policy

This paper investigates potential changes in monetary policy over the last decades using a nonparametric vector autoregression model. In the proposed model, the conditional mean and variance are time-dependent and estimated using a nonparametric local linear method, which allows for different forms of nonlinearity, conditional heteroskedasticity, and non-normality. Our results suggest that there have been gradual and abrupt changes in the variances of shocks, in the monetary transmission mechanism, and in the Fed’s reaction function. The response of output was strongest during Volcker’s disinflationary period and has since been slowly decreasing over time. There have been some abrupt changes in the response of inflation, especially in the early 1980s, but we can not conclude that it is weaker now than in previous periods. Finally, we find significant evidence that policy was passive during some parts of Burn’s period, and active during Volcker’s disinflationary period and Greenspan’s period. However, we find that the uncovered behavior of the parameters is more complex than general conclusions suggest, since they display considerable nonlinearities over time. A particular appeal of the recursive estimation of the proposed VAR-ARCH is the detection of discrete local deviations as well as more gradual ones, without smoothing the timing or magnitude of the changes.Monetary Policy, Taylor Rule, Local Estimation, Nonlinearity, Nonparametric, Monetary Policy; Taylor Rule; Local Estimation; Nonlinearity; Nonparametric; Structural Vector Autoregression; Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity;

A Poisson Regression Examination of the Relationship between Website Traffic and Search Engine Queries

A new area of research involves the use of Google data, which has been normalized and scaled to predict economic activity. This new source of data holds both many advantages as well as disadvantages, which are discussed through the use of daily and weekly data. Daily and weekly data are employed to show the effect of aggregation as it pertains to Google data, which can lead to contradictory findings. In this paper, Poisson regressions are used to explore the relationship between the online traffic to a specific website and the search volumes for certain keyword search queries, along with the rankings of that specific website for those queries. The purpose of this paper is to point out the benefits and the pitfalls of a potential new source of data that lacks transparency in regards to the original level data, which is due to the normalization and scaling procedure utilized by Google.Poisson Regression, Search Engine, Google Insights, Aggregation, Normalization Effects, Scaling Effects

Neural correlates of emotion processing comparing antidepressants and exogenous oxytocin in postpartum depressed women: An exploratory study

Despite common use of antidepressants to treat postpartum depression, little is known about the impact of antidepressant use on postpartum brain activity. Additionally, although oxytocin has been investigated as a potential treatment for postpartum depression, the interaction between antidepressants and exogenous oxytocin on brain activity is unknown. We explored postpartum depressed women’s neural activation in areas identified as important to emotion and reward processing and potentially, antidepressant response: the amygdala, nucleus accumbens and ventral tegmental area. We conducted a secondary analysis of a functional imaging study of response to sexual, crying infant and smiling infant images in 23 postpartum depressed women with infants under six months (11 women taking antidepressants, 12 unmedicated). Participants were randomized to receive a single dose of oxytocin or placebo nasal spray. There was significantly higher amygdala activation to sexual stimuli than either neutral or infant-related stimuli among women taking antidepressants or receiving oxytocin nasal spray. Among unmedicated women receiving placebo, amygdala activation was similar across stimuli types. There were no significant effects of antidepressants nor oxytocin nasal spray on reward area processing (i.e., in the nucleus accumbens or ventral tegmental area). Among postpartum women who remain depressed, there may be significant interactions between the effects of antidepressant use and exogenous oxytocin on neural activity associated with processing emotional information. Observed effect sizes were moderate to large, strongly suggesting the need for further replication with a larger sample

SNARE VTI13 plays a unique role in endosomal trafficking pathways associated with the vacuole and is essential for cell wall organization and root hair growth in arabidopsis

Background and Aims: Root hairs are responsible for water and nutrient uptake from the soil and their growth is responsive to biotic and abiotic changes in their environment. Root hair expansion is a polarized process requiring secretory and endosomal pathways that deliver and recycle plasma membrane and cell wall material to the growing root hair tip. In this paper, the role of VTI13 (AT3G29100), a member of the VTI vesicular soluble NSF attachment receptor (SNARE) gene family in Arabidopsis thaliana, in root hair growth is described.<p></p> Methods: Genetic analysis and complementation of the vti13 root hair phenotypes of Arabidopsis thaliana were first used to assess the role of VTI13 in root hair growth. Transgenic lines expressing a green fluorescent protein (GFP)–VTI13 construct were used to characterize the intracellular localization of VTI13 in root hairs using confocal microscopy and immunotransmission electron microscopy.<p></p> Key Results: VTI13 was characterized and genetic analysis used to show that its function is required for root hair growth. Expression of a GFP–VTI13 fusion in the vti13 mutant background was shown to complement the vti13 root hair phenotype. GFP–VTI13 localized to both the vacuole membrane and a mobile endosomal compartment. The function of VTI13 was also required for the localization of SYP41 to the trans-Golgi network. Immunohistochemical analysis indicated that cell wall organization is altered in vti13 root hairs and root epidermal cells.<p></p> Conclusions: These results show that VTI13 plays a unique role in endosomal trafficking pathways associated with the vacuole within root hairs and is essential for the maintenance of cell wall organization and root hair growth in arabidopsis

Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach

This paper compares the different dynamics of the simple sum monetary aggregates and the Divisia monetary aggregate indexes over time, over the business cycle, and across high and low inflation and interest rate phases. Although traditional comparisons of the series sometimes suggest that simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates share similar dynamics, there are important differences during certain periods, such as around turning points. These differences cannot be evaluated by their average behavior. We use a factor model with regime switching. The model separates out the common movements underlying the monetary aggregate indexes, summarized in the dynamic factor, from individual variations in each individual series, captured by the idiosyncratic terms. The idiosyncratic terms and the measurement errors reveal where the monetary indexes differ. We find several new results. In general, the idiosyncratic terms for both the simple sum aggregates and the Divisia indexes display a business cycle pattern, especially since 1980. They generally rise around the end of high interest rate phases – a couple of quarters before the beginning of recessions – and fall during recessions to subsequently converge to their average in the beginning of expansions. We find that the major differences between the simple sum aggregates and Divisia indexes occur around the beginnings and ends of economic recessions, and during some high interest rate phases. We note the inferences’ policy relevance, which is particularly dramatic at the broadest (M3) level of aggregation. Indeed, as Belongia (1996) has observed in this regard, “measurement matters.”Measurement Error, Divisia Index, Aggregation, State Space, Markov Switching, Monetary Policy

Behaviour stereotypy and timing behaviour

"Just as the problem of action at a distance created conceptual difficulties in philosophical analyses of causation, action delayed over time remains with us to create conceptual difficulties. . . In other modalities, such as vision, the question of whether behavior mediates simple discriminations such as the discrimination of intensity does not arise. It is not felt that such sensory processes must have the same dimensions as behavior. In temporal discriminations, however, the temporal gap is there to be bridged, and the analysis of mediating or timing behavior may be regarded as a kind of search for the temporal receptor". (Catania, 1970, p.36). The research reported in this thesis arose from a review of the literature on timing behaviours in organisms. This revealed that while many experimenters have described behaviour, produced by both animals and humans, where responses have been spaced accurately in time, the empirical results are open to equivocal explanations. One aspect of timing behaviour which has received little experimental attention is the function, if any, of the stereotyped behaviours which often occur collaterally with accurately spaced responding in time. These stereotyped collateral behaviours have sometimes been termed mediating behaviours because several researchers claim that they mediate accurately spaced responding in time (Kramer and Rilling, 1970, p.234 ff.). A detailed functional analysis of these "mediating'' behaviours has not appeared in the literature. This is possibly because the initial appearance of such behaviours is outwith the experimenter's control and, furthermore, these behaviours are normally peculiar to the individual and therefore difficult to measure quantitatively. The present investigation used a technique which made it likely that a certain behaviour would occur as the stereotyped collateral behaviour, and allowed a degree of quantitative measurement of this behaviour. It was hoped that investigation of stereotyped collateral behaviours would throw some light on the wider question of how organsisms space responses accurately in time

Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach

This paper compares the different dynamics of simple sum monetary aggregates and the Divisia indexes over time, over the business cycle, and across high and low inflation and interest rate phases. Although the traditional comparison of the series may suggest that they share similar dynamics, there are important differences during certain times and around turning points that can not be evaluated by their average behavior. We use a factor model with regime switching that offers several ways in which these differences can be analyzed. The model separates out the common movements underlying the monetary aggregate indexes, summarized in the dynamic factor, from individual variations in each one series, captured by the idiosyncratic terms. The idiosyncratic terms and the measurement errors represent exactly where the monetary indexes differ. We find several new results. In general, the idiosyncratic terms for both the simple sum aggregates and the Divisia indexes display a business cycle pattern, especially since 1980. They generally rise around the end of high interest rate phases – a couple of quarters before the beginning of recessions – and fall during recessions to subsequently converge to their average in the beginning of expansions. We also find that the major differences between the simple sum aggregates and Divisia indexes occur around the beginning and end of economic recessions, and during some high interest rate phases.Measurement Error, Divisia Index, Aggregation, State Space, Markov Switching, Monetary Policy

Using monoclonal antibodies to label living root hairs: a novel tool for studying cell wall microarchitecture and dynamics in <i>Arabidopsis</i>

Background&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; The Arabidopsis root hair represents a valuable cell model for elucidating polar expansion mechanisms in plant cells and the overall biology of roots. The deposition and development of the cell wall is central to the root hair expansion apparatus. During this process, incorporation of specific wall polymers into the growing wall architecture constitutes a critical spatio-temporal event that controls hair size and growth rate and one that is closely coordinated with the cell’s endomembrane, cytoskeletal and signal transduction apparatuses.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Results&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; In this study, the protocol for live cell labeling of roots with monoclonal antibodies that bind to specific wall polymers is presented. This method allows for rapid assessment of root hair cell wall composition during development and assists in describing changes to cell wall composition in transgenic mutant lines. Enzymatic “unmasking” of specific polymers prior to labeling allows for refined interpretation of cell wall chemistry. Live cell immunofluorescence data may also be correlated with transmission electron microscopy-based immunogold labeling.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Conclusions&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Live Arabidopsis root hairs may be labeled with cell wall polymer-specific antibodies. This methodology allows for direct visualization of cell wall dynamics throughout development in stable transgenic plant lines. It also provides an important new tool in the elucidation of the specific interactions occurring between membrane trafficking networks, cytoskeleton and the cell wall deposition/remodeling mechanism

Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach

This paper compares the different dynamics of the simple sum monetary aggregates and the Divisia monetary aggregate indexes over time, over the business cycle, and across high and low inflation and interest rate phases. Although traditional comparisons of the series sometimes suggest that simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates share similar dynamics, there are important differences during certain periods, such as around turning points. These differences cannot be evaluated by their average behavior. We use a factor model with regime switching. The model separates out the common movements underlying the monetary aggregate indexes, summarized in the dynamic factor, from individual variations in each individual series, captured by the idiosyncratic terms. The idiosyncratic terms and the measurement errors reveal where the monetary indexes differ. We find several new results. In general, the idiosyncratic terms for both the simple sum aggregates and the Divisia indexes display a business cycle pattern, especially since 1980. They generally rise around the end of high interest rate phases – a couple of quarters before the beginning of recessions – and fall during recessions to subsequently converge to their average in the beginning of expansions. We find that the major differences between the simple sum aggregates and Divisia indexes occur around the beginnings and ends of economic recessions, and during some high interest rate phases. We note the inferences’ policy relevance, which is particularly dramatic at the broadest (M3) level of aggregation. Indeed, as Belongia (1996) has observed in this regard, “measurement matters.”Measurement Error, Divisia Index, Aggregation, State Space, Markov Switching, Monetary Policy

Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach

This paper compares the different dynamics of the simple sum monetary aggregates and the Divisia monetary aggregate indexes over time, over the business cycle, and across high and low inflation and interest rate phases. Although traditional comparisons of the series sometimes suggest that simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates share similar dynamics, there are important differences during certain periods, such as around turning points. These differences cannot be evaluated by their average behavior. We use a factor model with regime switching. The model separates out the common movements underlying the monetary aggregate indexes, summarized in the dynamic factor, from individual variations in each individual series, captured by the idiosyncratic terms. The idiosyncratic terms and the measurement errors reveal where the monetary indexes differ. We find several new results. In general, the idiosyncratic terms for both the simple sum aggregates and the Divisia indexes display a business cycle pattern, especially since 1980. They generally rise around the end of high interest rate phases – a couple of quarters before the beginning of recessions – and fall during recessions to subsequently converge to their average in the beginning of expansions. We find that the major differences between the simple sum aggregates and Divisia indexes occur around the beginnings and ends of economic recessions, and during some high interest rate phases. We note the policy relevance of the inferences. Indeed, as Belongia (1996) has observed in this regard, "measurement matters."Measurement error; monetary aggregation; Divisia index; aggregation; state space; Markov switching; monetary policy; index number theory; factor models