Hydropower plans in eastern and southern Africa increase risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption

Hydropower comprises a significant and rapidly expanding proportion of electricity production in eastern and southern Africa. In both regions, hydropower is exposed to high levels of climate variability and regional climate linkages are strong, yet an understanding of spatial interdependences is lacking. Here we consider river basin configuration and define regions of coherent rainfall variability using cluster analysis to illustrate exposure to the risk of hydropower supply disruption of current (2015) and planned (2030) hydropower sites. Assuming completion of the dams planned, hydropower will become increasingly concentrated in the Nile (from 62% to 82% of total regional capacity) and Zambezi (from 73% to 85%) basins. By 2030, 70% and 59% of total hydropower capacity will be located in one cluster of rainfall variability in eastern and southern Africa, respectively, increasing the risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption in each region. Linking of nascent regional electricity sharing mechanisms could mitigate intraregional risk, although these mechanisms face considerable political and infrastructural challenges

Making energy efficiency pro-poor : insights from behavioural economics for policy design

This paper reviews the current state of behavioural economics and its applications to energy efficiency in developing countries. Taking energy efficient lighting in Ghana, Uganda and Rwanda as empirical examples, this paper develops hypotheses on how behavioural factors can improve energy efficiency policies directed towards poor populations. The key argument is that different types of affordability exist that are influenced by behavioural factors to varying degrees. Using a qualitative approach, this paper finds that social preferences, framing and innovative financing solutions that acknowledge people’s mental accounts can provide useful starting points. Behavioural levers are only likely to work in a policy package that addresses wider technical, market and institutional barriers to energy efficiency. More research, carefully designed pre-tests and stakeholder debates are required before introducing policies based on behavioural insights. This is imperative to avoid the dangers of nudging

Multi-project baselines for potential clean development mechanism projects in the electricity sector in South Africa

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aims to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in order to ''prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system'' and promote sustainable development. The Kyoto Protocol, which was adopted in 1997 and appears likely to be ratified by 2002 despite the US withdrawing, aims to provide means to achieve this objective. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is one of three ''flexibility mechanisms'' in the Protocol, the other two being Joint Implementation (JI) and Emissions Trading (ET). These mechanisms allow flexibility for Annex I Parties (industrialized countries) to achieve reductions by extra-territorial as well as domestic activities. The underlying concept is that trade and transfer of credits will allow emissions reductions at least cost. Since the atmosphere is a global, well-mixed system, it does not matter where greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. The CDM allows Annex I Parties to meet part of their emissions reductions targets by investing in developing countries. CDM projects must also meet the sustainable development objectives of the developing country. Further criteria are that Parties must participate voluntarily, that emissions reductions are ''real, measurable and long-term'', and that they are additional to those that would have occurred anyway. The last requirement makes it essential to define an accurate baseline. The remaining parts of section 1 outline the theory of baselines, emphasizing the balance needed between environmental integrity and reducing transaction costs. Section 2 develops an approach to multi-project baseline for the South African electricity sector, comparing primarily to near future capacity, but also considering recent plants. Five potential CDM projects are briefly characterized in section 3, and compared to the baseline in section 4. Section 5 concludes with a discussion of options and choices for South Africa regarding electricity sector baselines

Economic impacts of climate change in South Africa: A preliminary assessment of unmitigated damage costs

This study aimed to provide a preliminary desktop estimate of the economic impacts of climate change in South Africa, based on the findings of the Vulnerability and Adaptation Study for the South African Country Study on Climate Change (1999). Damages are those predicted for 2050 and are valued in year 2000 rands, unless otherwise stated. Predicted impacts from this study include changes in terrestrial and marine ecosystems which will have profound impacts on agriculture, forestry, rangelands and fisheries, as well as on biodiversity. In addition, changes n hydrology may have immense consequences in terms of human health by increasing suitable habitat for waterborne diseases, as well as affecting water supply and the maintenance of ecosystem functioning. Prediction of the economic impacts of climate change is particularly difficult because of the global scale of the impacts and the long time horizon involved. Such studies have mostly been carried out in developed countries, and often only concentrate on market impacts such as agriculture. Impacts are typically divided into market and non-market impacts, with ecosystem and health damages relegated to the latter category, but this study recognises that all impacts have their basis in changes to natural systems, and that all types of impacts have both market and non-market components