Institutions and the transition to adulthood: Implications for fertility tempo in low-fertility settings

The number of countries experiencing very low fertility has been rising in recent years, garnering increasing academic, political and media attention. There is now widespread academic agreement that the postponement of fertility is a major contributing factor in the very low levels of fertility that have occurred, and yet most policy discussions have been devoted to increasing the numbers of children women have. We discuss factors in three institutions--the educational system, the labour market and the housing market--that may inadvertently have led to childbearing postponement. We highlight important components of the timing of childbearing, including its changing place within the transition to adulthood across countries and the significance of the demands of childbearing versus childrearing. Using illustrations from Europe, North America, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, we argue that the following all lead to younger childbearing: 1) an open education system whereby it is relatively easy to return to school after having dropped out for a while; 2) a shorter, smoother, easier school-to-work transition; 3) easier re-entry into the labour market after having taken time out for childrearing or any other reason; 4) greater capability of integrating childrearing into a career; 5) easier ability to obtain a mortgage with a moderately small down payment, moderately low interest rate and a long time period over which to repay the loan; and 6) easier ability to rent a dwelling unit at an affordable price. Conversely, reversing any or all of these factors would lead, other things being equal, to postponement of childbearing.

Changing relationships between education and fertility: A study of women and men born 1940-64

Surprisingly, relatively little is known about the relationship between education and completed fertility in low fertility countries and especially the trend in this relationship over time. An inverse relationship is expected, but the topic has been left largely unexplored for at least a generation, and for men the topic is almost completely unexplored empirically. In this paper, we use data from the population registers covering all Norwegians born 1940-64. Among women, the relationship between completed fertility and the educational level attained at age 39 has become substantially less negative. In all the cohorts, better educated women have more often remained childless than the less educated, and they have had later first births, which also contributes to lower subsequent fertility. However, the negative effect of education on higher-order birth rates net of this impact of later motherhood has disappeared in the younger cohorts. Family-friendly policies and ideologies, leading, for example, to better access to high-quality day care, are likely the main engine behind this shift. Among men, a positive relationship has emerged. The better educated become fathers later than others, but fewer remain childless, and there has been an increasingly stimulating effect of education on second- and third-birth rates. We discuss these sex differences in the light of the persistent differences between mother and father roles

Health and the Political Agency of Women

We investigate whether women?s political representation in state legislatures improves public provision of antenatal and childhood health services in the districts from which they are elected, arguing that the costs of poor services in this domain fall disproportionately upon women. Using large representative data samples from India and accounting for potential endogeneity of politician gender and the sample composition of births, we find that a 10 percentage point increase in women?s representation results in a 2.1 percentage point reduction in neonatal mortality, and we elucidate mechanisms. Women?s political representation may be an under-utilised tool for addressing health in developing countries

Combining remote sensing and household level data for regional scale analysis of land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon

Land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon depends on the spatial variability of political, socioeconomic and biophysical factors, as well as on the land use history and its actors. A regional scale analysis was made in Rondônia State to identify possible differences in land cover change connected to spatial policies of land occupation, size and year of establishment of properties, accessibility measures and soil fertility. The analysis was made based on remote sensing data and household level data gathered with a questionnaire. Both types of analyses indicate that the highest level of total deforestation is found inside agrarian projects, especially in those established more than 20 years ago. Even though deforestation rates are similar inside and outside official settlements, inside agrarian projects forest depletion can exceed 50% at the property level within 10–14 years after establishment. The data indicate that both small-scale and medium to large-scale farmers contribute to deforestation processes in Rondônia State encouraged by spatial policies of land occupation, which provide better accessibility to forest fringes where soil fertility and forest resources are important determinants of location choic

Analyzing Childlessness

Childlessness has been on the rise in many European societies. In Germany, the UK, Austria, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, childlessness has increased starting with the 1950s cohorts. In these countries, about 20 % of the women born around 1965 will remain childless. In southern Europe and the former state-socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the rise in levels of childlessness is a more recent phenomenon. Yet among younger cohorts in these countries, childlessness has reached levels of 15 % or higher. In this introductory chapter, we summarize the long-term trends in childlessness and discuss the differences between European countries in the prevalence of childlessness. We also outline the structure and the logic of this volume

Biophysical suitability, economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R 2 = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R 2 = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage

Work-family life courses and BMI trajectories in three British birth cohorts.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Combining work and family responsibilities has previously been associated with improved health in mid-life, yet little is known about how these associations change over time (both biographical and historical) and whether this extends to body mass index (BMI) trajectories for British men and women. The purpose of this study was to investigate relationships between work-family life courses and BMI trajectories across adulthood (16-42 years) for men and women in three British birth cohorts. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Multiply imputed data from three nationally representative British birth cohorts were used-the MRC National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD; 1946 birth cohort, n=3012), the National Child Development Study (NCDS; 1958 birth cohort, n=9614) and the British Cohort Study (BCS; 1970 birth cohort, n=8140). A typology of work-family life course types was developed using multi-channel sequence analysis, linking annual information on work, partnerships and parenthood from 16 to 42 years. Work-family life courses were related to BMI trajectories using multi-level growth models. Analyses adjusted for indicators of prior health, birthweight, child BMI, educational attainment and socioeconomic position across the life course, and were stratified by gender and cohort. RESULTS: Work-family life courses characterised by earlier transitions to parenthood and weaker long-term links to employment were associated with greater increases in BMI across adulthood. Some of these differences, particularly for work-family groups, which are becoming increasingly non-normative, became more pronounced across cohorts (for example, increases in BMI between 16 and 42 years in long-term homemaking women: NSHD: 4.35 kg m-2, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.44, 5.26; NCDS: 5.53 kg m-2, 95% CI: 5.18, 5.88; BCS: 6.69 kg m-2, 95% CI: 6.36, 7.02). CONCLUSIONS: Becoming a parent earlier and weaker long-term ties to employment are associated with greater increases in BMI across adulthood in British men and women.Rebecca Lacey, Anne McMunn, Amanda Sacker and Meena Kumari received funding from the European Research Council (grant number: ERC-2011-StG_20101124, PI: Anne McMunn). Steven Bell also received funding from the European Research Council (grant number: ERCStG-2012-309337_Alcohol-Lifecourse, PI: Annie Britton) and UK Medical Research Council/Alcohol Research UK (MR/M006638/1). Amanda Sacker, Anne McMunn and Meena Kumari additionally received support from the Economic and Social Research Council’s International Centre for Life Course Studies in Society and Health (grant number: ES/J019119/1). DK is supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12019/1). The MRC National Survey of Health and Development is funded by the UK Medical Research Council. Peggy McDonough and Diana Worts were supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research grant MOP 119526 and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council grant 43512-1267

Timing of singleton births by onset of labour and mode of birth in NHS maternity units in England, 2005-2014: A study of linked birth registration, birth notification, and hospital episode data

BACKGROUND: Maternity care has to be available 24 hours a day, seven days a week. It is known that obstetric intervention can influence the time of birth, but no previous analysis at a national level in England has yet investigated in detail the ways in which the day and time of birth varies by onset of labour and mode of giving birth. METHOD: We linked data from birth registration, birth notification, and Maternity Hospital Episode Statistics and analysed 5,093,615 singleton births in NHS maternity units in England from 2005 to 2014. We used descriptive statistics and negative binomial regression models with harmonic terms to establish how patterns of timing of birth vary by onset of labour, mode of giving birth and gestational age. RESULTS: The timing of birth by time of day and day of the week varies considerably by onset of labour and mode of birth. Spontaneous births after spontaneous onset are more likely to occur between midnight and 6am than at other times of day, and are also slightly more likely on weekdays than at weekends and on public holidays. Elective caesarean births are concentrated onto weekday mornings. Births after induced labours are more likely to occur at hours around midnight on Tuesdays to Saturdays and on days before a public holiday period, than on Sundays, Mondays and during or just after a public holiday. CONCLUSION: The timing of births varies by onset of labour and mode of birth and these patterns have implications for midwifery and medical staffing. Further research is needed to understand the processes behind these findings