War and the Reelection Motive: Examining the Effect of Term Limits

This article investigates the relationship between term limits and international conflict. Theories of political survival and diversionary war both imply term limits should play a role in international relations, whereas “permanent referendum theory,” largely motivated by work in American politics, suggests otherwise. Drawing on these theories, we formulate and test competing hypotheses regarding term limits and international crises. Using dyadic militarized interstate disputes data and information on forty-eight democracies with term limits, we uncover strong evidence to support the claim that leaders reaching final terms in office are more likely to initiate conflict than those still subject to reelection. Moreover, we find that the likelihood of conflict initiation is significantly higher during times of recession, but only in the absence of binding term limits. While binding electoral terms and economic downturns are both independently associated with increased levels of conflict initiation, in concert their conditional effects actually counteract each other

First and second order optimality conditions for optimal control problems of state constrained integral equations

This paper deals with optimal control problems of integral equations, with initial-final and running state constraints. The order of a running state constraint is defined in the setting of integral dynamics, and we work here with constraints of arbitrary high orders. First and second-order necessary conditions of optimality are obtained, as well as second-order sufficient conditions

Discovery and Early Evolution of ASASSN-19bt, the First TDE Detected by TESS

We present the discovery and early evolution of ASASSN-19bt, a tidal disruption event (TDE) discovered by the All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae (ASAS-SN) at a distance of $d\simeq115$ Mpc and the first TDE to be detected by TESS. As the TDE is located in the TESS Continuous Viewing Zone, our dataset includes 30-minute cadence observations starting on 2018 July 25, and we precisely measure that the TDE begins to brighten $\sim8.3$ days before its discovery. Our dataset also includes 18 epochs of Swift UVOT and XRT observations, 2 epochs of XMM-Newton observations, 13 spectroscopic observations, and ground data from the Las Cumbres Observatory telescope network, spanning from 32 days before peak through 37 days after peak. ASASSN-19bt thus has the most detailed pre-peak dataset for any TDE. The TESS light curve indicates that the transient began to brighten on 2019 January 21.6 and that for the first 15 days its rise was consistent with a flux $\propto t^2$ power-law model. The optical/UV emission is well-fit by a blackbody SED, and ASASSN-19bt exhibits an early spike in its luminosity and temperature roughly 32 rest-frame days before peak and spanning up to 14 days that has not been seen in other TDEs, possibly because UV observations were not triggered early enough to detect it. It peaked on 2019 March 04.9 at a luminosity of $L\simeq1.3\times10^{44}$ ergs s$^{-1}$ and radiated $E\simeq3.2\times10^{50}$ ergs during the 41-day rise to peak. X-ray observations after peak indicate a softening of the hard X-ray emission prior to peak, reminiscent of the hard/soft states in X-ray binaries.Comment: 23 pages, 14 figures, 5 tables. A machine-readable table containing the host-subtracted photometry presented in this manuscript is included as an ancillary fil

Swine flu: lessons we need to learn from our global experience

There are important lessons to be learnt from the recent ‘Swine Flu’ pandemic. Before we call it a pandemic, we need to have appropriate trigger points that involve not only the spread of the virus but also its level of virulence. This was not done for H1N1 (swine flu). We need to ensure that we improve the techniques used in trying to decrease the spread of infection—both in the community and within our hospitals. This means improved infection control and hygiene, and the use of masks, alcohol hand rubs and so on. We also need to have a different approach to vaccines. Effective vaccines were produced only after the epidemic had passed and therefore had relatively little impact in preventing many infections. Mass population strategies involving vaccines and antivirals also misused large amounts of scarce medical resources

What Qualities Are Most Important to Making a Point of Care Test Desirable for Clinicians and Others Offering Sexually Transmitted Infection Testing?

To investigate the possible effects of different levels of attributes of a point-of-care test (POCT) on sexually transmitted infection (STI) professionals' decisions regarding an ideal POCT for STI(s).An online survey was designed based on a large-scale in-depth focus discussion study among STI experts and professionals. The last section of the survey "build your own POCT" was designed by employing the discrete choice experiment approach. Practicing clinicians from two venues, STI-related international conference attendees and U.S. STD clinic clinicians were invited to participate in the survey. Conditional logistical regression modeling was used for data analysis.Overall, 256 subjects took the online survey with 218 (85%) completing it. Most of the participants were STD clinic clinicians who already used some POCTs in their practice. "The time frame required" was identified as a major barrier that currently made it difficult to use STI POCTs. Chlamydia trachomatis was the organism chosen as the top priority for a new POCT, followed by a test that would diagnose early seroconversion for HIV, and a syphilis POCT. Without regard to organism type selected, sensitivity of 90-99% was always the most important attribute to be considered, followed by a cost of $20. However, when the test platform was prioritized for early HIV seroconversion or syphilis, sensitivity was still ranked as most important, but specificity was rated second most important.STI professionals preferred C. trachomatis as the top priority for a new POCT with sensitivity over 90%, low cost, and a very short completion time

Once is an Instance, Twice is a Hobby: Multiple Optical and Near-Infrared Changing-Look Events in NGC 5273

NGC 5273 is a known optical and X-ray variable AGN. We analyze new and archival IR, optical, UV, and X-ray data in order to characterize its long-term variability from 2000 to 2022. At least one changing-look event occurred between 2011 and 2014, when the AGN changed from a Type 1.8/1.9 Seyfert to a Type 1. It then faded considerably at all wavelengths, followed by a dramatic but slow increase in UV/optical brightness between 2021 and 2022. We propose that NGC 5273 underwent multiple changing-look events between 2000 and 2022 -- starting as a Type 1.8/1.9, NGC 5273 changes-look to a Type 1 only temporarily in 2002 and again in 2014, reverting back to a Type 1.8/1.9 by 2005 and 2017, respectively. In 2022, it is again a Type 1 Seyfert with optical and NIR broad emission lines. We characterize the changing-look events and their connection to the dynamic accretion and radiative processes in NGC 5273.Comment: 18 pages, 13 figures, 4 tables, submitting to MNRA

Discovery and Follow-up of ASASSN-19dj: An X-ray and UV Luminous TDE in an Extreme Post-Starburst Galaxy

We present observations of ASASSN-19dj, a nearby tidal disruption event (TDE) discovered in the post-starburst galaxy KUG 0810+227 by the All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae (ASAS-SN) at a distance of d $\simeq$ 98 Mpc. We observed ASASSN-19dj from $-$21 to 392 days relative to peak UV/optical emission using high-cadence, multi-wavelength spectroscopy and photometry. From the ASAS-SN $g$-band data, we determine that the TDE began to brighten on 2019 February 6.8 and for the first 25 days the rise was consistent with a flux $\propto$ $t^2$ power-law. ASASSN-19dj peaked in the UV/optical on 2019 March 6.5 (MJD = 58548.5) at a bolometric luminosity of $L = (6.2 \pm 0.2) \times 10^{44} \text{ erg s}^{-1}$. Initially remaining roughly constant in X-rays and slowly fading in the UV/optical, the X-ray flux increased by over an order of magnitude $\sim$225 days after peak, resulting from the expansion of the X-ray emitting surface. The late-time X-ray emission is well-fit by a blackbody with an effective radius of $\sim 1 \times 10^{12} \text{ cm}$ and a temperature of $\sim 6 \times 10^{5} \text{ K}$. Analysis of Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey images reveals a nuclear outburst roughly 14.5 years earlier with a smooth decline and a luminosity of $L_V$ $\geq$ $1.4 \times 10^{43}$ erg s$^{-1}$, although the nature of the flare is unknown. ASASSN-19dj occurred in the most extreme post-starburst galaxy yet to host a TDE, with Lick H$\delta_{A}$ = $7.67 \pm 0.17$ \AA.Comment: 25 pages, 14 figures. Will be submitted to MNRAS. For a short video description please see https://youtu.be/WjTZwO7vcF

Reflections on Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and the International Response

Gabriel Leung and Angus Nicoll provide their reflections on the international response to the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, including what went well and what changes need to be made in anticipation of future flu pandemics

Adenosine A2A receptors in Parkinson’s disease treatment

Latest results on the action of adenosine A2A receptor antagonists indicate their potential therapeutic usefulness in the treatment of Parkinson’s disease. Basal ganglia possess high levels of adenosine A2A receptors, mainly on the external surfaces of neurons located at the indirect tracts between the striatum, globus pallidus, and substantia nigra. Experiments with animal models of Parkinson’s disease indicate that adenosine A2A receptors are strongly involved in the regulation of the central nervous system. Co-localization of adenosine A2A and dopaminergic D2 receptors in striatum creates a milieu for antagonistic interaction between adenosine and dopamine. The experimental data prove that the best improvement of mobility in patients with Parkinson’s disease could be achieved with simultaneous activation of dopaminergic D2 receptors and inhibition of adenosine A2A receptors. In animal models of Parkinson’s disease, the use of selective antagonists of adenosine A2A receptors, such as istradefylline, led to the reversibility of movement dysfunction. These compounds might improve mobility during both monotherapy and co-administration with L-DOPA and dopamine receptor agonists. The use of adenosine A2A receptor antagonists in combination therapy enables the reduction of the L-DOPA doses, as well as a reduction of side effects. In combination therapy, the adenosine A2A receptor antagonists might be used in both moderate and advanced stages of Parkinson’s disease. The long-lasting administration of adenosine A2A receptor antagonists does not decrease the patient response and does not cause side effects typical of L-DOPA therapy. It was demonstrated in various animal models that inhibition of adenosine A2A receptors not only decreases the movement disturbance, but also reveals a neuroprotective activity, which might impede or stop the progression of the disease. Recently, clinical trials were completed on the use of istradefylline (KW-6002), an inhibitor of adenosine A2A receptors, as an anti-Parkinson drug