Structural Change in (Economic) Time Series

Methods for detecting structural changes, or change points, in time series data are widely used in many fields of science and engineering. This chapter sketches some basic methods for the analysis of structural changes in time series data. The exposition is confined to retrospective methods for univariate time series. Several recent methods for dating structural changes are compared using a time series of oil prices spanning more than 60 years. The methods broadly agree for the first part of the series up to the mid-1980s, for which changes are associated with major historical events, but provide somewhat different solutions thereafter, reflecting a gradual increase in oil prices that is not well described by a step function. As a further illustration, 1990s data on the volatility of the Hang Seng stock market index are reanalyzed.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure

Height Fluctuations and Intermittency of V2O5V_2 O_5 Films by Atomic Force Microscopy

The spatial scaling law and intermittency of the $V_2 O_5$ surface roughness by atomic force microscopy has been investigated. The intermittency of the height fluctuations has been checked by two different methods, first, by measuring scaling exponent of q-th moment of height-difference fluctuations i.e. $C_q =$ and the second, by defining generating function $Z(q,N)$ and generalized multi-fractal dimension $D_q$. These methods predict that there is no intermittency in the height fluctuations. The observed roughness and dynamical exponents can be explained by the numerical simulation on the basis of forced Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation.Comment: 6 pages (two columns), 11 eps. figures, late

In- and Out-Group Effects on Social Perception and Empathy in Cocaine Use Disorder

Earlier research revealed that cocaine users display impairments in emotional but not necessarily in cognitive empathy. However, no study to date has tested whether empathy is generally altered or whether impairments are restricted to specific social targets. The current investigation addresses this open question. In addition, we examined whether attributions of warmth and competence as well as personal future expectancies differed between cocaine users and substance-naïve controls. Twenty-two chronic cocaine users and 40 stimulant-naïve controls specified their perceived warmth and competence for four social targets [in-group member, opposite consumption out-group member (cocaine user for controls and non-user for cocaine user), opposite consumption out-group member of opposite gender, and elderly person]. They also specified their cognitive and emotional empathy for these four targets facing eight desirable and eight undesirable events. Finally, they rated the likelihood of these scenarios happening to themselves. Both cocaine users and controls attributed lower warmth to cocaine-using than non-using targets. Comparably, no in-group preference was observed in cocaine user’s emotional empathy ratings, and greater denigration of the in-group was associated with higher frequency and doses of cocaine consumption. In addition, cocaine users rated both desirable and undesirable events as more likely to happen to themselves than did controls. Results show that substance-naïve individuals stigmatize cocaine users. They further point to compromised self-esteem in cocaine users resulting from such stigmatization. Interventions should address stigmatization processes to break the vicious circle of mutual social distancing and stronger dedication to the drug

A Grhl2-dependent gene network controls trophoblast branching morphogenesis

Healthy placental development is essential for reproductive success; failure of the feto-maternal interface results in pre-eclampsia and intrauterine growth retardation. We found that grainyhead-like 2 (GRHL2), a CP2-type transcription factor, is highly expressed in chorionic trophoblast cells, including basal chorionic trophoblast (BCT) cells located at the chorioallantoic interface in murine placentas. Placentas from Grhl2-deficient mouse embryos displayed defects in BCT cell polarity and basement membrane integrity at the chorioallantoic interface, as well as a severe disruption of labyrinth branching morphogenesis. Selective Grhl2 inactivation only in epiblast-derived cells rescued all placental defects but phenocopied intraembryonic defects observed in global Grhl2 deficiency, implying the importance of Grhl2 activity in trophectoderm-derived cells. ChIP-seq identified 5282 GRHL2 binding sites in placental tissue. By integrating these data with placental gene expression profiles, we identified direct and indirect Grhl2 targets and found a marked enrichment of GRHL2 binding adjacent to genes downregulated in Grhl2(-/-) placentas, which encoded known regulators of placental development and epithelial morphogenesis. These genes included that encoding the serine protease inhibitor Kunitz type 1 (Spint1), which regulates BCT cell integrity and labyrinth formation. In human placenta, we found that human orthologs of murine GRHL2 and its targets displayed co-regulation and were expressed in trophoblast cells in a similar domain as in mouse placenta. Our data indicate that a conserved Grhl2-coordinated gene network controls trophoblast branching morphogenesis, thereby facilitating development of the site of feto-maternal exchange. This might have implications for syndromes related to placental dysfunction

Metabolomic Profiling of Drug Responses in Acute Myeloid Leukaemia Cell Lines

Combined bezafibrate (BEZ) and medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) exert unexpected antileukaemic activities against acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) and these activities are associated with the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) within the tumor cells. Although the generation of ROS by these drugs is supported by preceding studies including our own, the interrelationship between the cellular effects of the drugs and ROS generation is not well understood. Here we report the use of NMR metabolomic profiling to further study the effect of BEZ and MPA on three AML cell lines and to shed light on the underlying mechanism of action. For this we focused on drug effects induced during the initial 24 hours of treatment prior to the onset of overt cellular responses and examined these in the context of basal differences in metabolic profiles between the cell lines. Despite their ultimately profound cellular effects, the early changes in metabolic profiles engendered by these drugs were less pronounced than the constitutive metabolic differences between cell types. Nonetheless, drug treatments engendered common metabolic changes, most markedly in the response to the combination of BEZ and MPA. These responses included changes to TCA cycle intermediates consistent with recently identified chemical actions of ROS. Notable amongst these was the conversion of α-ketoglutarate to succinate which was recapitulated by the treatment of cell extracts with exogenous hydrogen peroxide. These findings indicate that the actions of combined BEZ and MPA against AML cells are indeed mediated downstream of the generation of ROS rather than some hitherto unsuspected mechanism. Moreover, our findings demonstrate that metabolite profiles represent highly sensitive markers for genomic differences between cells and their responses to external stimuli. This opens new perspectives to use metabolic profiling as a tool to study the rational redeployment of drugs in new disease settings

Complete Phenotypic Recovery of an Alzheimer's Disease Model by a Quinone-Tryptophan Hybrid Aggregation Inhibitor

The rational design of amyloid oligomer inhibitors is yet an unmet drug development need. Previous studies have identified the role of tryptophan in amyloid recognition, association and inhibition. Furthermore, tryptophan was ranked as the residue with highest amyloidogenic propensity. Other studies have demonstrated that quinones, specifically anthraquinones, can serve as aggregation inhibitors probably due to the dipole interaction of the quinonic ring with aromatic recognition sites within the amyloidogenic proteins. Here, using in vitro, in vivo and in silico tools we describe the synthesis and functional characterization of a rationally designed inhibitor of the Alzheimer's disease-associated β-amyloid. This compound, 1,4-naphthoquinon-2-yl-L-tryptophan (NQTrp), combines the recognition capacities of both quinone and tryptophan moieties and completely inhibited Aβ oligomerization and fibrillization, as well as the cytotoxic effect of Aβ oligomers towards cultured neuronal cell line. Furthermore, when fed to transgenic Alzheimer's disease Drosophila model it prolonged their life span and completely abolished their defective locomotion. Analysis of the brains of these flies showed a significant reduction in oligomeric species of Aβ while immuno-staining of the 3rd instar larval brains showed a significant reduction in Aβ accumulation. Computational studies, as well as NMR and CD spectroscopy provide mechanistic insight into the activity of the compound which is most likely mediated by clamping of the aromatic recognition interface in the central segment of Aβ. Our results demonstrate that interfering with the aromatic core of amyloidogenic peptides is a promising approach for inhibiting various pathogenic species associated with amyloidogenic diseases. The compound NQTrp can serve as a lead for developing a new class of disease modifying drugs for Alzheimer's disease

The Human Affectome

Over the last decades, the interdisciplinary field of the affective sciences has seen proliferation rather than integration of theoretical perspectives. This is due to differences in metaphysical and mechanistic assumptions about human affective phenomena (what they are and how they work) which, shaped by academic motivations and values, have determined the affective constructs and operationalizations. An assumption on the purpose of affective phenomena can be used as a teleological principle to guide the construction of a common set of metaphysical and mechanistic assumptions—a framework for human affective research. In this capstone paper for the special issue “Towards an Integrated Understanding of the Human Affectome”, we gather the tiered purpose of human affective phenomena to synthesize assumptions that account for human affective phenomena collectively. This teleologically-grounded framework offers a principled agenda and launchpad for both organizing existing perspectives and generating new ones. Ultimately, we hope Human Affectome brings us a step closer to not only an integrated understanding of human affective phenomena, but an integrated field for affective research

Mechanism of the Interaction between the Intrinsically Disordered C-Terminus of the Pro-Apoptotic ARTS Protein and the Bir3 Domain of XIAP

ARTS (Sept4_i2) is a mitochondrial pro-apoptotic protein that functions as a tumor suppressor. Its expression is significantly reduced in leukemia and lymphoma patients. ARTS binds and inhibits XIAP (X-linked Inhibitor of Apoptosis protein) by interacting with its Bir3 domain. ARTS promotes degradation of XIAP through the proteasome pathway. By doing so, ARTS removes XIAP inhibition of caspases and enables apoptosis to proceed. ARTS contains 27 unique residues in its C-terminal domain (CTD, residues 248–274) which are important for XIAP binding. Here we characterized the molecular details of this interaction. Biophysical and computational methods were used to show that the ARTS CTD is intrinsically disordered under physiological conditions. Direct binding of ARTS CTD to Bir3 was demonstrated using NMR and fluorescence spectroscopy. The Bir3 interacting region in ARTS CTD was mapped to ARTS residues 266–274, which are the nine C-terminal residues in the protein. Alanine scan of ARTS 266–274 showed the importance of several residues for Bir3 binding, with His268 and Cys273 contributing the most. Adding a reducing agent prevented binding to Bir3. A dimer of ARTS 266–274 formed by oxidation of the Cys residues into a disulfide bond bound with similar affinity and was probably required for the interaction with Bir3. The detailed analysis of the ARTS – Bir3 interaction provides the basis for setting it as a target for anti cancer drug design: It will enable the development of compounds that mimic ARTS CTD, remove IAPs inhibition of caspases, and thereby induce apoptosis

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)