Sudden change in long-term ocean climate fluctuations corresponds with ecosystem alterations and reduced recruitment in Norwegian spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus, Clupeidae)

Fish stocks vary in abundance. The causes behind the fluctuations may be difficult to determine, especially ones caused by natural fluctuations, but long‐term data series may provide indications of the mechanisms. Assessments show that the recruitment to the Norwegian spring‐spawning herring (Clupea harengus, Clupeidae) has remained low since 2004, a year which produced the last really rich year‐class. Long time‐series of estimated recruitment and mean winter temperature in the ocean showed a significant positive correlation for the period 1921–2004. Here, we show that this positive correlation did not continue from 2005 onwards as the winter temperature increased to high levels while herring recruitment decreased and has remained low. The density of zooplankton in the drift route of the herring larvae dropped significantly after 2004, and their centre of gravity shifted northwards. There may currently be heavy predation on the larvae by Atlanic mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scombridae), and top‐down regulation is suggested to hamper successful recruitment. Our analysis indicates that the presence of food and overlap with high food concentrations are likely important regulators of survival in herring larvae. The findings may be important for future management and planning of fisheries of this stock because recruitment failure may continue if temperature remains high and food abundance remains low.publishedVersio

Modelling the population size and dynamics of the British grey seal

Funding: part-funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council to SMRU (Grant no. SMRU1001).1. Grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) were the first mammals to be protected by an Act of Parliament in the UK and are currently protected under UK, Scottish, and EU conservation legislation. Reporting requirements under each of these statutes requires accurate and timely population estimates. Monitoring is principally conducted by aerial surveys of the breeding colonies; these are used to produce estimates of annual pup production. Translating these data to estimates of adult population size requires information about demographic parameters such as fecundity and sex ratio. 2. An age‐structured population dynamics model is presented, which includes density dependence in pup survival, with separate carrying capacities in each of the four breeding regions considered (North Sea, Inner Hebrides, Outer Hebrides, and Orkney). This model is embedded within a Bayesian state–space modelling framework, allowing the population model to be linked to available data and the use of informative prior distributions on demographic parameters. A computer‐intensive fitting algorithm is presented based on particle filtering methods. 3. The model is fitted to region‐level pup production estimates from 1984 to 2010 and an independent estimate of adult population size, derived from aerial surveys of hauled‐out seals in 2008. The fitted model is used to estimate total population size from 1984 to 2010. 4. The population in the North Sea region has increased at a near‐constant rate; growth in the other three regions began to slow in the mid‐1990s and these populations appear to have reached carrying capacity. The total population size of seals aged 1 year or older in 2010 was estimated to be 116 100 (95% CI 98 400–138 600), an increase of <1% on the previous year. 5. The modelling and fitting methods are widely applicable to other wildlife populations where diverse sources of information are available and inference is required for the underlying population dynamics.PostprintPeer reviewe

Saturation Behavior: a general relationship described by a simple second-order differential equation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The numerous natural phenomena that exhibit saturation behavior, <it>e.g</it>., ligand binding and enzyme kinetics, have been approached, to date, via empirical and particular analyses. This paper presents a mechanism-free, and assumption-free, second-order differential equation, designed only to describe a typical relationship between the variables governing these phenomena. It develops a mathematical model for this relation, based solely on the analysis of the typical experimental data plot and its saturation characteristics. Its utility complements the traditional empirical approaches.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For the general saturation curve, described in terms of its independent (<it>x</it>) and dependent (<it>y</it>) variables, a second-order differential equation is obtained that applies to any saturation phenomena. It shows that the driving factor for the basic saturation behavior is the probability of the interactive site being free, which is described quantitatively. Solving the equation relates the variables in terms of the two empirical constants common to all these phenomena, the initial slope of the data plot and the limiting value at saturation. A first-order differential equation for the slope emerged that led to the concept of the effective binding rate at the active site and its dependence on the calculable probability the interactive site is free. These results are illustrated using specific cases, including ligand binding and enzyme kinetics. This leads to a revised understanding of how to interpret the empirical constants, in terms of the variables pertinent to the phenomenon under study.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The second-order differential equation revealed the basic underlying relations that describe these saturation phenomena, and the basic mathematical properties of the standard experimental data plot. It was shown how to integrate this differential equation, and define the common basic properties of these phenomena. The results regarding the importance of the slope and the new perspectives on the empirical constants governing the behavior of these phenomena led to an alternative perspective on saturation behavior kinetics. Their essential commonality was revealed by this analysis, based on the second-order differential equation.</p

Population regulation in lake whitefish, Coregonus clupeaformis (Mitchill)

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73745/1/j.1095-8649.1981.tb03822.x.pd

Density‐ and size‐dependent mortality in fish early life stages

The importance of survival and growth variations early in life for population dynamics depends on the degrees of compensatory density dependence and size dependence in survival at later life stages. Quantifying density‐ and size‐dependent mortality at different juvenile stages is therefore important to understand and potentially predict the recruitment to the population. We applied a statistical state‐space modelling approach to analyse time series of abundance and mean body size of larval and juvenile fish. The focus was to identify the importance of abundance and body size for growth and survival through successive larval and juvenile age intervals, and to quantify how the dynamics propagate through the early life to influence recruitment. We thus identified both relevant ages and mechanisms (i.e. density dependence and size dependence in survival and growth) linking recruitment variability to early life dynamics. The analysis was conducted on six economically and ecologically important fish populations from cold temperate and sub‐arctic marine ecosystems. Our results underscore the importance of size for survival early in life. The comparative analysis suggests that size‐dependent mortality and density‐dependent growth frequently occur at a transition from pelagic to demersal habitats, which may be linked to competition for suitable habitat. The generality of this hypothesis warrants testing in future research.publishedVersio

Demographic Diversity and Sustainable Fisheries

Fish species are diverse. For example, some exhibit early maturation while others delay maturation, some adopt semelparous reproductive strategies while others are iteroparous, and some are long-lived and others short-lived. The diversity is likely to have profound effects on fish population dynamics, which in turn has implications for fisheries management. In this study, a simple density-dependent stage-structured population model was used to investigate the effect of life history traits on sustainable yield, population resilience, and the coefficient of variation (CV) of the adult abundance. The study showed that semelparous fish can produce very high sustainable yields, near or above 50% of the carrying capacity, whereas long-lived iteroparous fish can produce very low sustainable yields, which are often much less than 10% of the carrying capacity. The difference is not because of different levels of sustainable fishing mortality rate, but because of difference in the sensitivity of the equilibrium abundance to fishing mortality. On the other hand, the resilience of fish stocks increases from delayed maturation to early maturation strategies but remains almost unchanged from semelparous to long-lived iteroparous. The CV of the adult abundance increases with increased fishing mortality, not because more individuals are recruited into the adult stage (as previous speculated), but because the mean abundance is more sensitive to fishing mortality than its standard deviation. The magnitudes of these effects vary depending on the life history strategies of the fish species involved. It is evident that any past high yield of long-lived iteroparous fish is a transient yield level, and future commercial fisheries should focus more on fish that are short-lived (including semelparous species) with high compensatory capacity

Growth and Demography of the Solitary Scleractinian Coral Leptopsammia pruvoti along a Sea Surface Temperature Gradient in the Mediterranean Sea

The demographic traits of the solitary azooxanthellate scleractinian Leptopsammia pruvoti were determined in six populations on a sea surface temperature (SST) gradient along the western Italian coasts. This is the first investigation of the growth and demography characteristics of an azooxanthellate scleractinian along a natural SST gradient. Growth rate was homogeneous across all populations, which spanned 7 degrees of latitude. Population age structures differed between populations, but none of the considered demographic parameters correlated with SST, indicating possible effects of local environmental conditions. Compared to another Mediterranean solitary scleractinian, Balanophyllia europaea, zooxanthellate and whose growth, demography and calcification have been studied in the same sites, L. pruvoti seems more tolerant to temperature increase. The higher tolerance of L. pruvoti, relative to B. europaea, may rely on the absence of symbionts, and thus the lack of an inhibition of host physiological processes by the heat-stressed zooxanthellae. However, the comparison between the two species must be taken cautiously, due to the likely temperature differences between the two sampling depths. Increasing research effort on determining the effects of temperature on the poorly studied azooxanthellate scleractinians may shed light on the possible species assemblage shifts that are likely to occur during the current century as a consequence of global climatic change