A new method for monitoring global volcanic activity

The ERTS Data Collection System makes it feasible for the first time to monitor the level of activity at widely separated volcanoes and to relay these data rapidly to one central office for analysis. While prediction of specific eruptions is still an evasive goal, early warning of a reawakening of quiescent volcanoes is now a distinct possibility. A prototypical global volcano surveillance system was established under the ERTS program. Instruments were installed in cooperation with local scientists on 15 volcanoes in Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, California, Iceland, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. The sensors include 19 seismic event counters that count four different sizes of earthquakes and six biaxial borehole tiltmeters that measure ground tilt with a resolution of 1 microradian. Only seismic and tilt data are collected because these have been shown in the past to indicate most reliably the level of volcano activity at many different volcanoes. Furthermore, these parameters can be measured relatively easily with new instrumentation

Research Note:<br>Derivation of temperature lapse rates in semi-arid south-eastern Arizona

International audienceEcological and hydrological modelling at the regional scale requires distributed information on weather variables, and temperature is important among these. In an area of basin and range topography with a wide range of elevations, such as south-eastern Arizona, measurements are usually available only at a relatively small number of locations and elevations, and temperatures elsewhere must be estimated from atmospheric lapse rate. This paper derives the lapse rates to estimate maximum, minimum and mean daily temperatures from elevation. Lapse rates were calculated using air temperatures at 2 m collected during 2002 at 18 locations across south-eastern Arizona, with elevations from 779 to 2512 m. The lapse rate predicted for the minimum temperature was lower than the mean environmental lapse rate (MELR), i.e. 6 K km?1, whereas those predicted for the mean and maximum daily temperature were very similar to the MELR. Lapse rates were also derived from radiosonde data at 00 and 12 UTC (5 pm and 5 am local time, respectively). The lapse rates calculated from radiosonde data were greater than those from the 2 m measurements, presumably because the effect of the surface was less. Given temperatures measured at Tucson airport, temperatures at the other sites were predicted using the different estimates of lapse rates. The best predictions of temperatures used the locally predicted lapse rates. In the case of maximum and mean temperature, using the MELR also resulted in accurate predictions. Keywords: near surface lapse rates, semi-arid climate, mean minimum and maximum temperatures, basin and range topograph

Application of a plane-stratified emission model to predict the effects of vegetation in passive microwave radiometry

This paper reports the application to vegetation canopies of a coherent model for the propagation of electromagnetic radiation through a stratified medium. The resulting multi-layer vegetation model is plausibly realistic in that it recognises the dielectric permittivity of the vegetation matter, the mixing of the dielectric permittivities for vegetation and air within the canopy and, in simplified terms, the overall vertical distribution of dielectric permittivity and temperature through the canopy. Any sharp changes in the dielectric profile of the canopy resulted in interference effects manifested as oscillations in the microwave brightness temperature as a function of canopy height or look angle. However, when Gaussian broadening of the top and bottom of the canopy (reflecting the natural variability between plants) was included within the model, these oscillations were eliminated. The model parameters required to specify the dielectric profile within the canopy, particularly the parameters that quantify the dielectric mixing between vegetation and air in the canopy, are not usually available in typical field experiments. Thus, the feasibility of specifying these parameters using an advanced single-criterion, multiple-parameter optimisation technique was investigated by automatically minimizing the difference between the modelled and measured brightness temperatures. The results imply that the mixing parameters can be so determined but only if other parameters that specify vegetation dry matter and water content are measured independently. The new model was then applied to investigate the sensitivity of microwave emission to specific vegetation parameters.</p> <p style='line-height: 20px;'><b>Keywords: </b>passive microwave, soil moisture, vegetation, SMOS, retrieva

Development and evaluation of a prototype global volcano surveillance system utilizing the ERTS-1 satellite data collection system

There are no author-identified significant results in this report

Burst avalanches in solvable models of fibrous materials

We review limiting models for fracture in bundles of fibers, with statistically distributed thresholds for breakdown of individual fibers. During the breakdown process, avalanches consisting of simultaneous rupture of several fibers occur, and the distribution $D(\Delta)$ of the magnitude $\Delta$ of such avalanches is the central characteristics in our analysis. For a bundle of parallel fibers two limiting models of load sharing are studied and contrasted: the global model in which the load carried by a bursting fiber is equally distributed among the surviving members, and the local model in which the nearest surviving neighbors take up the load. For the global model we investigate in particular the conditions on the threshold distribution which would lead to anomalous behavior, i.e. deviations from the asymptotics $D(\Delta) \sim \Delta^{-5/2}$, known to be the generic behavior. For the local model no universal power-law asymptotics exists, but we show for a particular threshold distribution how the avalanche distribution can nevertheless be explicitly calculated in the large-bundle limit.Comment: 28 pages, RevTeX, 3 Postscript figure

Bounds for the time to failure of hierarchical systems of fracture

For years limited Monte Carlo simulations have led to the suspicion that the time to failure of hierarchically organized load-transfer models of fracture is non-zero for sets of infinite size. This fact could have a profound significance in engineering practice and also in geophysics. Here, we develop an exact algebraic iterative method to compute the successive time intervals for individual breaking in systems of height $n$ in terms of the information calculated in the previous height $n-1$. As a byproduct of this method, rigorous lower and higher bounds for the time to failure of very large systems are easily obtained. The asymptotic behavior of the resulting lower bound leads to the evidence that the above mentioned suspicion is actually true.Comment: Final version. To appear in Phys. Rev. E, Feb 199

Incubation environment impacts the social cognition of adult lizards

Recent work exploring the relationship between early environmental conditions and cognition has shown that incubation environment can influence both brain anatomy and performance in simple operant tasks in young lizards. It is currently unknown how it impacts other, potentially more sophisticated, cognitive processes. Social-cognitive abilities, such as gaze following and social learning, are thought to be highly adaptive as they provide a short-cut to acquiring new information. Here, we investigated whether egg incubation temperature influenced two aspects of social cognition, gaze following and social learning in adult reptiles (Pogona vitticeps). Incubation temperature did not influence the gaze following ability of the bearded dragons; however, lizards incubated at colder temperatures were quicker at learning a social task and faster at completing that task. These results are the first to show that egg incubation temperature influences the social cognitive abilities of an oviparous reptile species and that it does so differentially depending on the task. Further, the results show that the effect of incubation environment was not ephemeral but lasted long into adulthood. It could thus have potential long-term effects on fitness

The Post-Common Envelope and Pre-Cataclysmic Binary PG 1224+309

We have made extensive spectroscopic and photometric observations of PG 1224+309, a close binary containing a DA white dwarf primary and an M4+ secondary. The H alpha line is in emission due to irradiation of the M-star by the hot white dwarf and is seen to vary around the orbit. From the radial velocities of the H alpha line we derive a period of P = 0.258689 +/- 0.000004 days and a semi-amplitude of K_Halpha = 160 +/- 8 km/s. We estimate a correction Delta_K = 21 +/- 2 km/s, where K_M = K_Halpha + Delta_K. Radial velocity variations of the white dwarf reveal a semi-amplitude of K_WD = 112 +/- 14 km/s. The blue spectrum of the white dwarf is well fit by a synthetic spectrum having T_eff = 29,300 K and log(g) = 7.38. The white dwarf contributes 97% of the light at 4500 Angstroms and virtually all of the light blueward of 3800 Angstroms. No eclipses are observed. The mass inferred for the white dwarf depends on the assumed mass of the thin residual hydrogen envelope: 0.40 < M_WD < 0.45 solar masses for hydrogen envelope masses of 0 < M_H < 4.0E-4 solar masses. We argue that the mass of the white dwarf is closer to 0.45 solar masses, hence it appears that the white dwarf has a relatively large residual hydrogen envelope. The mass of the M-star is then M_M = 0.28 +/- 0.05 solar masses, and the inclination is i = 77 +/- 7 degrees. We discuss briefly how PG 1224+309 may be used to constrain theories of close binary star evolution, and the past and future histories of PG 1224+309 itself. The star is both a ``post-common envelope'' star and a ``pre-cataclysmic binary'' star. Mass transfer by Roche-lobe overflow should commence in about 10 Gyr.Comment: 17 pages, 8 figures, AAS LaTeX, to appear in AJ, March 199

Demographics and the Cost of Pharmaceuticals in a Private Third-Party Prescription Program

Objective: To compare variance in the cost of pharmaceuticals attributable to demographic variables with variance explained by plan characteristics, using prescription claims data within various therapeutic categories, and to examine differences in average cost of pharmaceuticals among demographic variables after controlling for covariates. Design: Retrospective, cross-sectional study. Data Collection: Data for this study were obtained from 1996 prescription claims information for the commercial population administered by a Rhode Island-based pharmacy benefit management (PBM) company. Six therapeutic categories with the highest expenditures were analyzed. Information on claims for six drug categories was extracted using database management software. Statistical analyses using multiple regression and analysis of covariance were carried out. Results: Plan characteristics outperformed demographic variables sixteenfold for all drug categories combined in explaining variance in cost of pharmaceuticals among plan enrollees. Average cost of pharmaceuticals differed among demographic variables such as age, gender, location, and place of employment after controlling for average wholesale price and days supply. Conclusions: The results obtained in this study have practical significance in the determination of capitation rates when utilization history of prospective members is not available. In this situation, managed care organizations (MCOs) or PBMs may have to set capitation rates based solely on eligibility data. Significant differences in average drug costs among the members based on place of employment suggest that benefit managers should consider differentiating capitation rates according to their clients\u27 businesses. Finally, the data from this study indicated that commercial members residing in Tennessee had the lowest average cost of pharmaceuticals among all states evaluated. The fact that one PBM manages more than 80% of the TennCare prescription program along with a significant commercial client base suggests that a spillover effect may exist

Menstrual and reproductive factors in relation to ovarian cancer risk

We assessed menstrual and reproductive factors in relation to ovarian cancer risk in a large, population-based, case–control study. 563 cases in Massachusetts and New Hampshire were ascertained from hospitals and statewide tumour registries; control women (n= 523) were selected through random digit dialing and matched to case women by age and telephone sampling unit. We used multivariate logistic regression to evaluate factors in relation to risk of ovarian cancer and the major tumour histologic subtypes. Ovarian cancer risk was reduced among parous women, relative to nulliparous women (OR = 0.4; 95% CI = 0.3−0.6). Among parous women, higher parity (P= 0.0006), increased age at first (P= 0.03) or last (P= 0.05) birth, and time since last birth (P= 0.04) were associated with reduced risk. Early pregnancy losses, abortions, and stillbirths were unrelated to risk, but preterm, term, and twin births were protective. Risk was lower among women who had breast-fed, relative to those who had not (OR = 0.7; 95% CI = 0.5–1.0), but the average duration of breast-feeding per child was unrelated to risk (P for trend = 0.21). Age at menarche and age at menopause were unrelated to risk overall, although increasing menarcheal age was protective among premenopausal women (P= 0.02). Menstrual cycle characteristics and symptoms were generally unrelated to risk, although cycle-related insomnia was associated with decreased risk (OR = 0.5; 95% CI = 0.3–0.8). We found no association between the type of sanitary product used during menstruation and ovarian cancer risk. In analyses by histologic subtype, reproductive and menstrual factors had most effect on risk of endometrioid/clear cell tumours, and least influential with regard to risk of mucinous tumours. Overall, our findings offer some support to current hypotheses of ovarian pathogenesis, and show aetiologic differences among the tumour subtypes. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.co