The impacts of biofuel targets on land-use change and food supply : a global CGE assessment

This study analyzes the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a global computable general equilibrium model, augmented by a land-use module and detailed representation of biofuel sectors. The study finds that an expansion of global biofuel production to meet currently articulated or even higher national targets in various countries for biofuel use would reduce gross domestic product at the global level; however, the gross domestic product impacts are mixed across countries or regions. The expansion of biofuels would cause significant land re-allocation with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The results also suggest that the expansion of biofuels would cause a reduction in food supply. Although the magnitude of the impact on food supply at the global level is not as large as perceived earlier, it would be significant in developing countries like India and those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural commodities such as sugar, corn, and oil seeds, which serve as the main biofuel feedstocks, would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020 compared with the prices at baseline due to the expansion of biofuels to meet the existing targets.Agribusiness,Food&Beverage Industry,Wetlands,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Renewable Energy

Piecemeal Reform of Trade and Environmental Policy When Consumption Also Pollutes

We incorporate endogenous (price-responsive) consumption pollution into a dual trade model to assess welfare effects of coordinated trade and environmental piecemeal reform in a small, open and distorted economy. Pollution is generated by production and consumption. Producers control the level of pollution and face incentives to abate both types of pollution. We identify sufficient conditions for welfare-improving reforms of trade and environmental policies. An additional domestic environmental policy instrument must be imposed on exportables because of their supply response to foreign environmental taxes

Piecemeal Reform of Trade and Environmental Policy When Consumption Also Pollutes

We incorporate endogenous (price-responsive) consumption pollution into a dual trade model to assess welfare effects of coordinated trade and environmental piecemeal reform in a small, open and distorted economy. Pollution is generated by production and consumption. Producers control the level of pollution and face incentives to abate both types of pollution. We identify sufficient conditions for welfare-improving reforms of trade and environmental policies. An additional domestic environmental policy instrument must be imposed on exportables because of their supply response to foreign environmental taxes

On random flights with non-uniformly distributed directions

This paper deals with a new class of random flights $\underline{\bf X}_d(t),t>0,$ defined in the real space $\mathbb{R}^d, d\geq 2,$ characterized by non-uniform probability distributions on the multidimensional sphere. These random motions differ from similar models appeared in literature which take directions according to the uniform law. The family of angular probability distributions introduced in this paper depends on a parameter $\nu\geq 0$ which gives the level of drift of the motion. Furthermore, we assume that the number of changes of direction performed by the random flight is fixed. The time lengths between two consecutive changes of orientation have joint probability distribution given by a Dirichlet density function. The analysis of $\underline{\bf X}_d(t),t>0,$ is not an easy task, because it involves the calculation of integrals which are not always solvable. Therefore, we analyze the random flight $\underline{\bf X}_m^d(t),t>0,$ obtained as projection onto the lower spaces $\mathbb{R}^m,m<d,$ of the original random motion in $\mathbb{R}^d$. Then we get the probability distribution of $\underline{\bf X}_m^d(t),t>0.$ Although, in its general framework, the analysis of $\underline{\bf X}_d(t),t>0,$ is very complicated, for some values of $\nu$, we can provide some results on the process. Indeed, for $\nu=1$, we obtain the characteristic function of the random flight moving in $\mathbb{R}^d$. Furthermore, by inverting the characteristic function, we are able to give the analytic form (up to some constants) of the probability distribution of $\underline{\bf X}_d(t),t>0.$Comment: 28 pages, 3 figure

Diffusion in multiscale spacetimes

We study diffusion processes in anomalous spacetimes regarded as models of quantum geometry. Several types of diffusion equation and their solutions are presented and the associated stochastic processes are identified. These results are partly based on the literature in probability and percolation theory but their physical interpretation here is different since they apply to quantum spacetime itself. The case of multiscale (in particular, multifractal) spacetimes is then considered through a number of examples and the most general spectral-dimension profile of multifractional spaces is constructed.Comment: 23 pages, 5 figures. v2: discussion improved, typos corrected, references adde

Vibrations and fractional vibrations of rods, plates and Fresnel pseudo-processes

Different initial and boundary value problems for the equation of vibrations of rods (also called Fresnel equation) are solved by exploiting the connection with Brownian motion and the heat equation. The analysis of the fractional version (of order $\nu$) of the Fresnel equation is also performed and, in detail, some specific cases, like $\nu=1/2$, 1/3, 2/3, are analyzed. By means of the fundamental solution of the Fresnel equation, a pseudo-process $F(t)$, $t>0$ with real sign-varying density is constructed and some of its properties examined. The equation of vibrations of plates is considered and the case of circular vibrating disks $C_R$ is investigated by applying the methods of planar orthogonally reflecting Brownian motion within $C_R$. The composition of F with reflecting Brownian motion $B$ yields the law of biquadratic heat equation while the composition of $F$ with the first passage time $T_t$ of $B$ produces a genuine probability law strictly connected with the Cauchy process.Comment: 33 pages,8 figure

Semi-Markov Graph Dynamics

In this paper, we outline a model of graph (or network) dynamics based on two ingredients. The first ingredient is a Markov chain on the space of possible graphs. The second ingredient is a semi-Markov counting process of renewal type. The model consists in subordinating the Markov chain to the semi-Markov counting process. In simple words, this means that the chain transitions occur at random time instants called epochs. The model is quite rich and its possible connections with algebraic geometry are briefly discussed. Moreover, for the sake of simplicity, we focus on the space of undirected graphs with a fixed number of nodes. However, in an example, we present an interbank market model where it is meaningful to use directed graphs or even weighted graphs.Comment: 25 pages, 4 figures, submitted to PLoS-ON

A qualitative study of independent fast food vendors near secondary schools in disadvantaged Scottish neighbourhoods

Background: Preventing and reducing childhood and adolescent obesity is a growing priority in many countries. Recent UK data suggest that children in more deprived areas have higher rates of obesity and poorer diet quality than those in less deprived areas. As adolescents spend a large proportion of time in school, interventions to improve the food environment in and around schools are being considered. Nutrient standards for school meals are mandatory in the UK, but many secondary pupils purchase foods outside schools at break or lunchtime that may not meet these standards. Methods: Qualitative interviews were conducted with fast food shop managers to explore barriers to offering healthier menu options. Recruitment targeted independently-owned shops near secondary schools (pupils aged c.12-17) in low-income areas of three Scottish cities. Ten interviews were completed, recorded, and transcribed for analysis. An inductive qualitative approach was used to analyse the data in NVivo 10. Results: Five themes emerged from the data: pride in what is sold; individual autonomy and responsibility; customer demand; profit margin; and neighbourhood context. Interviewees consistently expressed pride in the foods they sold, most of which were homemade. They felt that healthy eating and general wellbeing are the responsibility of the individual and that offering what customers want to eat, not necessarily what they should eat, was the only way to stay in business. Most vendors felt they were struggling to maintain a profit, and that many aspects of the low-income neighbourhood context would make change difficult or impossible. Conclusions: Independent food shops in low-income areas face barriers to offering healthy food choices, and interventions and policies that target the food environment around schools should take the neighbourhood context into consideration

FAPRI 2000 U.S. Agricultural Outlook

Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,