High Dengue Case Capture Rate in Four Years of a Cohort Study in Nicaragua Compared to National Surveillance Data

Dengue is a major public health problem in tropical and subtropical regions; however, under-reporting of cases to national surveillance systems hinders accurate knowledge of disease burden and costs. Laboratory-confirmed dengue cases identified through the Nicaraguan Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study (PDCS) were compared to those reported from other health facilities in Managua to the National Epidemiologic Surveillance (NES) program of the Nicaraguan Ministry of Health. Compared to reporting among similar pediatric populations in Managua, the PDCS identified 14 to 28 (average 21.3) times more dengue cases each year per 100,000 persons than were reported to the NES. Applying these annual expansion factors to national-level data, we estimate that the incidence of confirmed pediatric dengue throughout Nicaragua ranged from 300 to 1000 cases per 100,000 persons. We have estimated a much higher incidence of dengue than reported by the Ministry of Health. A country-specific expansion factor for dengue that allows for a more accurate estimate of incidence may aid governments and other institutions calculating disease burden, costs, resource needs for prevention and treatment, and the economic benefits of drug and vaccine development

Fundamentación científico-pedagogica del diseño curricular para la educacion geoinformatica en la Universidad Agraria de La Habana

Por vez primera en la historia de la Educación Superior en Cuba, una Universidad se apresta a introducir en el Plan y Programa de estudio de pregrado, contenidos de las tecnologías de Teledetección Aerospacial y Sistemas de Información Geográficos (SIG) aplicados en la Agricultura. Estos contenidos unidos a los de la ya existente asignatura Topografía, conformarán una trilogía de materias, que en una segunda fase asumirán un enfoque disciplinario integral, al interrelacionarse con otras como la Cartografía, los Sistemas de Posicionamiento Global y la Geoestadística Agrícola. La disciplina así conformada denominada Geoinformática Agrícola, tendrá como objetivo fundamental proporcionar el conocimiento, las competencias y destrezas necesarias al nuevo profesional, necesitado de apreciar y evaluar acciones que ejercen las fuerzas productivas y la naturaleza sobre el entorno geográfico donde tiene lugar la producción agropecuaria, que constituye el objeto de estudio del Ingeniero Agrónomo. Como es conocido, la tendencia de las universidades de perfil agropecuario en el mundo, es incluir estos contenidos en la enseñanza de pre-grado, por el impacto positivo que esto puede proporcionar en la eficiencia de la gestión agraria y medioambiental, como consecuencia de una exigente formación del profesional para encarar los retos actuales y puedan en consecuencia, tomar decisiones que alcanzan dimensiones locales, territoriales y globales. En el trabajo se exponen los fundamentos científicos y pedagógicos en los cuales se basó el diseño curricular, para satisfacer las restricciones impuestas en cuanto a volumen horario disponible y las funciones estructurales que rigen el programa de estudio vigente y se presenta una versión generalizada de los planes temáticos de las asignaturas contempladas en la primera fase.For first time in the history of Higher Education in Cuba, an University is being prepares for introducing in the Plans and Programs of undergraduate teaching, contents on Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) technologies applied in the Agriculture. Initially these contents jointly to the existent subject Topography; to conform a trilogy of matters that will assume an integral disciplinary focus in a second phase, when being interrelated with others as Cartography, the of Global Positioning Systems and Agricultural Geoestatistics. The discipline this way conformed denominated A g r i c u l t u r a l Geoinformatics, it will have as fundamental objective to provide the knowledge, the necessary competitions and abilities needy to the new professionals for appreciating and evaluating actions that provokes the productive forces and nature on the geographical environment where takes place the agricultural production process that constitutes their object of study. As it is known, the current world tendency of the universities of agricultural profile, is to include these contents in the ubdergraduate teaching for the positive impact that this can provide in the efficiency of the agrarian and environmental administration, as consequence of the professional's demanding formation to face the current challenges outlined to these specialists and they can in consequence, to make decisions that reach local, territorial and global dimensions. In the work the scientific and pedagogic foundations are exposed in which the curricular design was based to satisfy the restrictions imposed both for volume of the time available and the structural functions that govern the current program of study and a widespread version of the thematic plans of the subjects contemplated in the first phase is presented.Eje: Educación universitaria: Experiencias uso NTICRed de Universidades con Carreras en Informática (RedUNCI

Fundamentación científico-pedagogica del diseño curricular para la educacion geoinformatica en la Universidad Agraria de La Habana

Por vez primera en la historia de la Educación Superior en Cuba, una Universidad se apresta a introducir en el Plan y Programa de estudio de pregrado, contenidos de las tecnologías de Teledetección Aerospacial y Sistemas de Información Geográficos (SIG) aplicados en la Agricultura. Estos contenidos unidos a los de la ya existente asignatura Topografía, conformarán una trilogía de materias, que en una segunda fase asumirán un enfoque disciplinario integral, al interrelacionarse con otras como la Cartografía, los Sistemas de Posicionamiento Global y la Geoestadística Agrícola. La disciplina así conformada denominada Geoinformática Agrícola, tendrá como objetivo fundamental proporcionar el conocimiento, las competencias y destrezas necesarias al nuevo profesional, necesitado de apreciar y evaluar acciones que ejercen las fuerzas productivas y la naturaleza sobre el entorno geográfico donde tiene lugar la producción agropecuaria, que constituye el objeto de estudio del Ingeniero Agrónomo. Como es conocido, la tendencia de las universidades de perfil agropecuario en el mundo, es incluir estos contenidos en la enseñanza de pre-grado, por el impacto positivo que esto puede proporcionar en la eficiencia de la gestión agraria y medioambiental, como consecuencia de una exigente formación del profesional para encarar los retos actuales y puedan en consecuencia, tomar decisiones que alcanzan dimensiones locales, territoriales y globales. En el trabajo se exponen los fundamentos científicos y pedagógicos en los cuales se basó el diseño curricular, para satisfacer las restricciones impuestas en cuanto a volumen horario disponible y las funciones estructurales que rigen el programa de estudio vigente y se presenta una versión generalizada de los planes temáticos de las asignaturas contempladas en la primera fase.For first time in the history of Higher Education in Cuba, an University is being prepares for introducing in the Plans and Programs of undergraduate teaching, contents on Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) technologies applied in the Agriculture. Initially these contents jointly to the existent subject Topography; to conform a trilogy of matters that will assume an integral disciplinary focus in a second phase, when being interrelated with others as Cartography, the of Global Positioning Systems and Agricultural Geoestatistics. The discipline this way conformed denominated A g r i c u l t u r a l Geoinformatics, it will have as fundamental objective to provide the knowledge, the necessary competitions and abilities needy to the new professionals for appreciating and evaluating actions that provokes the productive forces and nature on the geographical environment where takes place the agricultural production process that constitutes their object of study. As it is known, the current world tendency of the universities of agricultural profile, is to include these contents in the ubdergraduate teaching for the positive impact that this can provide in the efficiency of the agrarian and environmental administration, as consequence of the professional's demanding formation to face the current challenges outlined to these specialists and they can in consequence, to make decisions that reach local, territorial and global dimensions. In the work the scientific and pedagogic foundations are exposed in which the curricular design was based to satisfy the restrictions imposed both for volume of the time available and the structural functions that govern the current program of study and a widespread version of the thematic plans of the subjects contemplated in the first phase is presented.Eje: Educación universitaria: Experiencias uso NTICRed de Universidades con Carreras en Informática (RedUNCI

Unusual Dengue Virus 3 Epidemic in Nicaragua, 2009

The four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1–4) cause the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans worldwide. In 2009, Nicaragua experienced the largest dengue epidemic in over a decade, marked by unusual clinical presentation, as observed in two prospective studies of pediatric dengue in Managua. From August 2009–January 2010, 212 dengue cases were confirmed among 396 study participants at the National Pediatric Reference Hospital. In our parallel community-based cohort study, 170 dengue cases were recorded in 2009–10, compared to 13–65 cases in 2004–9. In both studies, significantly more patients experienced “compensated shock” (poor capillary refill plus cold extremities, tachycardia, tachypnea, and/or weak pulse) in 2009–10 than in previous years (42.5% [90/212] vs. 24.7% [82/332] in the hospital study (p<0.001) and 17% [29/170] vs. 2.2% [4/181] in the cohort study (p<0.001). Signs of poor peripheral perfusion presented significantly earlier (1–2 days) in 2009–10 than in previous years according to Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. In the hospital study, 19.8% of subjects were transferred to intensive care, compared to 7.1% in previous years – similar to the cohort study. DENV-3 predominated in 2008–9, 2009–10, and 2010–11, and full-length sequencing revealed no major genetic changes from 2008–9 to 2010–11. In 2008–9 and 2010–11, typical dengue was observed; only in 2009–10 was unusual presentation noted. Multivariate analysis revealed only “2009–10” as a significant risk factor for Dengue Fever with Compensated Shock. Interestingly, circulation of pandemic influenza A-H1N1 2009 in Managua was shifted such that it overlapped with the dengue epidemic. We hypothesize that prior influenza A H1N1 2009 infection may have modulated subsequent DENV infection, and initial results of an ongoing study suggest increased risk of shock among children with anti-H1N1-2009 antibodies. This study demonstrates that parameters other than serotype, viral genomic sequence, immune status, and sequence of serotypes can play a role in modulating dengue disease outcome

On the radioecological issues of natural radionuclides in water and sediment of a highly contaminated lagoon from Mexico

Se han determinado las concentraciones de actividad de radionucleidos naturales en el agua y los sedimentos de la laguna El Pedernalillo, Zacatecas, México

An assessment of upper ocean salinity content from the ocean reanalyses inter-comparison project (ORA-IP)

Many institutions worldwide have developed ocean reanalyses systems (ORAs) utilizing a variety of ocean models and assimilation techniques. However, the quality of salinity reanalyses arising from the various ORAs has not yet been comprehensively assessed. In this study, we assess the upper ocean salinity content (depth-averaged over 0–700 m) from 14 ORAs and 3 objective ocean analysis systems (OOAs) as part of the Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project. Our results show that the best agreement between estimates of salinity from different ORAs is obtained in the tropical Pacific, likely due to relatively abundant atmospheric and oceanic observations in this region. The largest disagreement in salinity reanalyses is in the Southern Ocean along the Antarctic circumpolar current as a consequence of the sparseness of both atmospheric and oceanic observations in this region. The West Pacific warm pool is the largest region where the signal to noise ratio of reanalysed salinity anomalies is >1. Therefore, the current salinity reanalyses in the tropical Pacific Ocean may be more reliable than those in the Southern Ocean and regions along the western boundary currents. Moreover, we found that the assimilation of salinity in ocean regions with relatively strong ocean fronts is still a common problem as seen in most ORAs. The impact of the Argo data on the salinity reanalyses is visible, especially within the upper 500m, where the interannual variability is large. The increasing trend in global-averaged salinity anomalies can only be found within the top 0–300m layer, but with quite large diversity among different ORAs. Beneath the 300m depth, the global-averaged salinity anomalies from most ORAs switch their trends from a slightly growing trend before 2002 to a decreasing trend after 2002. The rapid switch in the trend is most likely an artefact of the dramatic change in the observing system due to the implementation of Argo

Exploring strategies for coupled 4D-Var data assimilation using an idealised atmosphere-ocean model

Operational forecasting centres are currently developing data assimilation systems for coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Strongly coupled assimilation, in which a single assimilation system is applied to a coupled model, presents significant technical and scientific challenges. Hence weakly coupled assimilation systems are being developed as a first step, in which the coupled model is used to compare the current state estimate with observations, but corrections to the atmosphere and ocean initial conditions are then calculated independently. In this paper we provide a comprehensive description of the different coupled assimilation methodologies in the context of four dimensional variational assimilation (4D-Var) and use an idealised framework to assess the expected benefits of moving towards coupled data assimilation. We implement an incremental 4D-Var system within an idealised single column atmosphere-ocean model. The system has the capability to run both strongly and weakly coupled assimilations as well as uncoupled atmosphere or ocean only assimilations, thus allowing a systematic comparison of the different strategies for treating the coupled data assimilation problem. We present results from a series of identical twin experiments devised to investigate the behaviour and sensitivities of the different approaches. Overall, our study demonstrates the potential benefits that may be expected from coupled data assimilation. When compared to uncoupled initialisation, coupled assimilation is able to produce more balanced initial analysis fields, thus reducing initialisation shock and its impact on the subsequent forecast. Single observation experiments demonstrate how coupled assimilation systems are able to pass information between the atmosphere and ocean and therefore use near-surface data to greater effect. We show that much of this benefit may also be gained from a weakly coupled assimilation system, but that this can be sensitive to the parameters used in the assimilation

An assessment of air-sea heat fluxes from ocean and coupled reanalyses

Sixteen monthly air–sea heat flux products from global ocean/coupled reanalyses are compared over 1993–2009 as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP). Objectives include assessing the global heat closure, the consistency of temporal variability, comparison with other flux products, and documenting errors against in situ flux measurements at a number of OceanSITES moorings. The ensemble of 16 ORA-IP flux estimates has a global positive bias over 1993–2009 of 4.2 ± 1.1 W m−2. Residual heat gain (i.e., surface flux + assimilation increments) is reduced to a small positive imbalance (typically, +1–2 W m−2). This compensation between surface fluxes and assimilation increments is concentrated in the upper 100 m. Implied steady meridional heat transports also improve by including assimilation sources, except near the equator. The ensemble spread in surface heat fluxes is dominated by turbulent fluxes (>40 W m−2 over the western boundary currents). The mean seasonal cycle is highly consistent, with variability between products mostly <10 W m−2. The interannual variability has consistent signal-to-noise ratio (~2) throughout the equatorial Pacific, reflecting ENSO variability. Comparisons at tropical buoy sites (10°S–15°N) over 2007–2009 showed too little ocean heat gain (i.e., flux into the ocean) in ORA-IP (up to 1/3 smaller than buoy measurements) primarily due to latent heat flux errors in ORA-IP. Comparisons with the Stratus buoy (20°S, 85°W) over a longer period, 2001–2009, also show the ORA-IP ensemble has 16 W m−2 smaller net heat gain, nearly all of which is due to too much latent cooling caused by differences in surface winds imposed in ORA-IP

The PreVOCA experiment: modeling the lower troposphere in the Southeast Pacific

The Preliminary VOCALS Model Assessment (PreVOCA) aims to assess contemporary atmospheric modeling of the subtropical South East Pacific, with a particular focus on the clouds and the marine boundary layer (MBL). Models results from fourteen modeling centers were collected including operational forecast models, regional models, and global climate models for the month of October 2006. Forecast models and global climate models produced daily forecasts, while most regional models were run continuously during the study period, initialized and forced at the boundaries with global model analyses. Results are compared in the region from 40&amp;deg; S to the equator and from 110&amp;deg; W to 70&amp;deg; W, corresponding to the Pacific coast of South America. Mean-monthly model surface winds agree well with QuikSCAT observed winds and models agree fairly well on mean weak large-scale subsidence in the region next to the coast. However they have greatly differing geographic patterns of mean cloud fraction with only a few models agreeing well with MODIS observations. Most models also underestimate the MBL depth by several hundred meters in the eastern part of the study region. The diurnal cycle of liquid water path is underestimated by most models at the 85&amp;deg; W 20&amp;deg; S stratus buoy site compared with satellite, consistent with previous modeling studies. The low cloud fraction is also underestimated during all parts of the diurnal cycle compared to surface-based climatologies. Most models qualitatively capture the MBL deepening around 15 October 2006 at the stratus buoy, associated with colder air at 700 hPa