Numerical prediction of the Mid-Atlantic states cyclone of 18-19 February 1979

A series of forecast experiments was conducted to assess the accuracy of the GLAS model, and to determine the importance of large scale dynamical processes and diabatic heating to the cyclogenesis. The GLAS model correctly predicted intense coastal cyclogenesis and heavy precipitation. Repeated without surface heat and moisture fluxes, the model failed to predict any cyclone development. An extended range forecast, a forecast from the NMC analysis interpolated to the GLAS grid, and a forecast from the GLAS analysis with the surface moisture flux excluded predicted weak coastal low development. Diabatic heating resulting from oceanic fluxes significantly contributed to the generation of low level cyclonic vorticity and the intensification and slow rate of movement of an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic. As an upper level short wave trough approached this ridge, diabatic heating associated with the release of latent heat intensified, and the gradient of vorticity, vorticity advection and upper level divergence in advance of the trough were greatly increased, providing strong large scale forcing for the surface cyclogenesis

Atmospheric response to variations in sea surface temperature

An extended range prediction experiment was performed with the GISS atmospheric model on a global data to test the sensitivity of the model to sea surface temperature (SST) variation over a two-week forecast period. The use of an initial observed SST field in place of the climatological monthly mean sea temperatures for surface flux calculations in the model was found to have a significant effect on the predicted precipitation over the ocean, with enhanced convection computed over areas where moderately large warm SST anomalies are found. However, there was no detectable positive effect of the SST anomaly field on forecast quality. The influence of the SST anomalies on the daily predicted fields of pressure and geopotential is relatively insignificant up to about one week compared with the growth of prediction error, and is no greater over a two-week period than that resulting from random errors in the initial meteorological state. The 14-day average fields of sea level pressure and 500-mb height predicted by the model, appear to be similarly insensitive to anomalies of sea surface temperature

Simultaneous ocean cross-section and rainfall measurements from space with a nadir-pointing radar

A method to determine simultaneously the rainfall rate and the normalized backscattering cross section of the surface was evaluated. The method is based on the mirror reflected power, p sub m which corresponds to the portion of the incident power scattered from the surface to the precipitation, intercepted by the precipitation, and again returned to the surface where it is scattered a final time back to the antenna. Two approximations are obtained for P sub m depending on whether the field of view at the surface is either much greater or much less than the height of the reflection layer. Since the dependence of P sub m on the backscattering cross section of the surface differs in the two cases, two algorithms are given by which the path averaged rain rate and normalized cross section are deduced. The detectability of P sub m, the relative strength of other contributions to the return power arriving simultaneous with P sub m, and the validity of the approximations used in deriving P sub m are discussed

A comparison of GLAS SAT and NMC high resolution NOSAT forecasts from 19 and 11 February 1976

A subjective comparison of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) and the National Meteorological Center (NMC) high resolution model forecasts is presented. Two cases where NMC's operational model in 1976 had serious difficulties in forecasting for the United States were examined. For each of the cases, the GLAS model forecasts from initial conditions which included satellite sounding data were compared directly to the NMC higher resolution model forecasts, from initial conditions which excluded the satellite data. The comparison showed that the GLAS satellite forecasts significantly improved upon the current NMC operational model's predictions in both cases

Determination of rain rate from a spaceborne radar using measurements of total attenuation

Studies shows that path-integrated rain rates can be determined by means of a direct measurement of attenuation. For ground based radars this is done by measuring the backscattering cross section of a fixed target in the presence and absence of rain along the radar beam. A ratio of the two measurements yields a factor proportional to the attenuation from which the average rain rate is deduced. The technique is extended to spaceborne radars by choosing the ground as reference target. The technique is also generalized so that both the average and range-profiled rain rates are determined. The accuracies of the resulting estimates are evaluated for a narrow beam radar located on a low earth orbiting satellite

The multi-parameter remote measurement of rainfall

The measurement of rainfall by remote sensors is investigated. One parameter radar rainfall measurement is limited because both reflectivity and rain rate are dependent on at least two parameters of the drop size distribution (DSD), i.e., representative raindrop size and number concentration. A generalized rain parameter diagram is developed which includes a third distribution parameter, the breadth of the DSD, to better specify rain rate and all possible remote variables. Simulations show the improvement in accuracy attainable through the use of combinations of two and three remote measurables. The spectrum of remote measurables is reviewed. These include path integrated techniques of radiometry and of microwave and optical attenuation

Responding to the threat of bioterrorism: a microbial ecology perspective—the case of anthrax

Anthrax is a disease of herbivores caused by the gram-positive bacterium Bacillus anthracis. It can affect cattle, sheep, swine, horses and various species of wildlife. The routes for the spread among wildlife are reviewed. There are three kinds of human anthrax —inhalation, cutaneous, and intestinal anthrax— which differ in their routes of infection and outcomes. In the United States, confirmation of cases is made by the isolation of B. anthracis and by biochemical tests. Vaccination is not recommended for the general public; civilians who should be vaccinated include those who, in their work places, come in contact with products potentially contaminated with B. anthracis spores, and people engaged in research or diagnostic activities. After September 11, 2001, there were bioterrorism anthrax attacks in the United States: anthrax-laced letters sent to multiple locations were the source of infectious B. anthracis. The US Postal Service issued recommendations to prevent the danger of hazardous exposure to the bacterium. B. anthracis spores can spread easily and persist for very long times, which makes decontamination of buildings very difficult. Early detection, rapid diagnosis, and well-coordinated public health response are the key to minimizing casualties. The US Government is seeking new ways to deter bioterrorism, including a tighter control of research on infectious agents, even though pathogens such as B. anthracis are widely spread in nature and easy to grow. It is necessary to define the boundary between defensive and offensive biological weapons research. Deterring bioterrorism should not restrict critical scientific research

Measurement of elliptic and higher order flow harmonics at sNN=2.76\sqrt{s_{NN}}=2.76 TeV Pb+Pb collisions with the ATLAS Detector

The measurements of flow harmonics $v_2$-$v_6$ using the event plane and two particle correlations methods in broad $p_T$, $\eta$ and centrality ranges using the ATLAS detector at LHC are presented. ATLAS recorded about 9 $\mu \textrm{b}^{-1}$ of lead-lead collision data in the 2010 heavy ion run. The full azimuthal acceptance of the ATLAS detector in $\pm2.5$ units of pseudorapidity for charged hadrons and the large amount of data allows for a detailed study of the flow harmonics. The $p_T$, centrality and $\eta$ ranges where the two methods give consistent $v_n$ and where they disagree are discussed. It is shown that the ridge as well as the so called "mach-cone" seen in two particle correlations are largely accounted for by the collective flow. Some scaling relations in the $p_T$ dependence of the $v_n$ are also discussed

Recent Heavy Ion Results with the ATLAS Detector at the LHC

Results are presented from the ATLAS collaboration from the 2010 LHC heavy ion run, during which nearly 10 inverse microbarns of luminosity were delivered. Soft physics results include charged particle multiplicities and collective flow. The charged particle multiplicity, which tracks initial state entropy production, increases by a factor of two relative to the top RHIC energy, with a centrality dependence very similar to that already measured at RHIC. Measurements of elliptic flow out to large transverse momentum also show similar results to what was measured at RHIC, but no significant pseudorapidity dependence. Extensions of these measurements to higher harmonics have also been made, and can be used to explain structures in the two-particle correlation functions that had long been attributed to jet-medium interactions. New hard probe measurements include single muons, jets and high $p_T$ hadrons. Single muons at high momentum are used to extract the yield of $W^{\pm}$ bosons and are found to be consistent within statistical uncertainties with binary collision scaling. Conversely, jets are found to be suppressed in central events by a factor of two relative to peripheral events, with no significant dependence on the jet energy. Fragmentation functions are also found to be the same in central and peripheral events. Finally, charged hadrons have been measured out to 30 GeV, and their centrality dependence relative to peripheral events is similar to that found for jets.Comment: 9 pages, 9 figures, proceedings for Quark Matter 2011, Annecy, France, May 23-28, 201