How will increased demand for electric vehicles influence the price and production of cobalt and lithium?

The demand for electric vehicles is predicted to increase drastically mainly due to climate concerns. Lithium and cobalt, two metals used in the battery for electric vehicles have therefore gained more attention as there is uncertainty regarding future availability. The prices of cobalt and lithium have risen considerably in the last two years due to increased demand for electric vehicles, hence increased demand for the metals. Thus, in this thesis we investigated how increased demand for electric vehicles will influence the price and production of cobalt and lithium. By simplifying the demand and supply functions and modelling them on reduced form, we obtain the covariation between electric vehicle sales and the metal prices. Thereafter, we discuss whether these relationships remain stable. The results of the estimations indicate that the price of cobalt and lithium will rise by 5.5 and 6.3 percent per annum, respectively, if the demand for electric vehicles rise sharply. In order to reduce the risk of running out of input factors for the electric vehicle production, it is reasonable to believe that battery and electric vehicle manufacturers will store cobalt and lithium. Thus, the demand for the metals will be higher than what the assumed growth in electric vehicle sales suggests. An inelastic supply curve, in combination with a greater shift in demand, will lead to a higher short-term price growth of both cobalt and lithium than the model predicts. Technological development in extraction, increased secondary supply from batteries, and the completion of new mines following 2022, lead to a positive shift in the supply curve and make it more elastic. Advancements in battery technology will reduce the amount of cobalt and lithium in the battery. Consequently, the impact of increased demand for electric vehicles will have less effect on the demand for the metals in the long run. Due to these dynamics in interaction, the price of cobalt and lithium will in the long term stabilize at a lower level than the observed prices in December 2017.Det er spådd en meget sterk global økning i etterspørselen etter elbiler hovedsakelig på grunn av et mål om å redusere CO2 utslipp. Litium og kobolt, to metaller som anvendes i elbilbatteriet har dermed fått økt oppmerksomhet da det er usikkerhet vedrørende fremtidig tilgjengelighet. Som følge av økt etterspørsel etter elbiler og dermed økt etterspørsel etter metallene, har prisen på kobolt og litium steget betraktelig de to siste årene. I denne masteroppgaven undersøkte vi dermed hvordan økt etterspørsel etter elbiler vil påvirke pris og produksjon av kobolt og litium. Ved å modellere forenklede etterspørsels- og tilbudsfunksjoner på redusert form, finner vi sammenhenger mellom metallprisene og elbilsalg. Deretter diskuteres det om disse relasjonene forblir stabile. Resultatene fra estimeringen viser at prisen på kobolt og litium vil stige årlig med henholdsvis 5,5 og 6,3 prosent dersom etterspørsel etter elbiler stiger kraftig. For å redusere risikoen for å gå tom for innsatsfaktorer til elbilproduksjonen, er det rimelig å anta at batteri- og elbilprodusenter vil lagre kobolt og litium. Dermed blir etterspørselen etter metallene høyere enn den antatte veksten i elbilsalg tilsier. En uelastisk tilbudskurve kombinert med større skift i etterspørselen vil føre til at den kortsiktige prisveksten på metallene blir høyere enn de modellerte prisøkningene. Teknologisk utvikling i gruvedrift, resirkulering av kobolt og litium fra elbilbatteriet og ferdigstillelse av nye gruver etter 2022, er faktorer som fører til positivt skift i tilbudskurven og gjør kurven mer elastisk. Utvikling i batteriteknologi vil redusere mengden kobolt og litium i batteriet. Dette resulterer i at økt etterspørsel etter elbiler har en mindre innvirkning på etterspørselen etter metallene. Disse dynamikkene vil i samspill føre til at prisen på kobolt og litium på sikt vil stabiliseres på et lavere nivå enn de observerte prisene i desember 2017.M-Ø

Efficacy and safety of baricitinib in hospitalized adults with severe or critical COVID-19 (Bari-SolidAct): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial

International audienceBackground Baricitinib has shown efficacy in hospitalized patients with COVID-19, but no placebo-controlled trials have focused specifically on severe/critical COVID, including vaccinated participants. Methods Bari-SolidAct is a phase-3, multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, enrolling participants from June 3, 2021 to March 7, 2022, stopped prematurely for external evidence. Patients with severe/critical COVID-19 were randomised to Baricitinib 4 mg once daily or placebo, added to standard of care. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality within 60 days. Participants were remotely followed to day 90 for safety and patient related outcome measures. Results Two hundred ninety-nine patients were screened, 284 randomised, and 275 received study drug or placebo and were included in the modified intent-to-treat analyses (139 receiving baricitinib and 136 placebo). Median age was 60 (IQR 49–69) years, 77% were male and 35% had received at least one dose of SARS-CoV2 vaccine. There were 21 deaths at day 60 in each group, 15.1% in the baricitinib group and 15.4% in the placebo group (adjusted absolute difference and 95% CI − 0.1% [− 8·3 to 8·0]). In sensitivity analysis censoring observations after drug discontinuation or rescue therapy (tocilizumab/increased steroid dose), proportions of death were 5.8% versus 8.8% (− 3.2% [− 9.0 to 2.7]), respectively. There were 148 serious adverse events in 46 participants (33.1%) receiving baricitinib and 155 in 51 participants (37.5%) receiving placebo. In subgroup analyses, there was a potential interaction between vaccination status and treatment allocation on 60-day mortality. In a subsequent post hoc analysis there was a significant interaction between vaccination status and treatment allocation on the occurrence of serious adverse events, with more respiratory complications and severe infections in vaccinated participants treated with baricitinib. Vaccinated participants were on average 11 years older, with more comorbidities.Conclusion This clinical trial was prematurely stopped for external evidence and therefore underpowered to conclude on a potential survival benefit of baricitinib in severe/critical COVID-19. We observed a possible safety signal in vaccinated participants, who were older with more comorbidities. Although based on a post-hoc analysis, these findings warrant further investigation in other trials and real-world studies. Trial registration Bari-SolidAct is registered at NCT04891133 (registered May 18, 2021) and EUClinicalTrials.eu ( 2022-500385-99-00 )

Efficacy and safety of baricitinib in hospitalized adults with severe or critical COVID-19 (Bari-SolidAct): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial

International audienceAbstract Background Baricitinib has shown efficacy in hospitalized patients with COVID-19, but no placebo-controlled trials have focused specifically on severe/critical COVID, including vaccinated participants. Methods Bari-SolidAct is a phase-3, multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, enrolling participants from June 3, 2021 to March 7, 2022, stopped prematurely for external evidence. Patients with severe/critical COVID-19 were randomised to Baricitinib 4 mg once daily or placebo, added to standard of care. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality within 60 days. Participants were remotely followed to day 90 for safety and patient related outcome measures. Results Two hundred ninety-nine patients were screened, 284 randomised, and 275 received study drug or placebo and were included in the modified intent-to-treat analyses (139 receiving baricitinib and 136 placebo). Median age was 60 (IQR 49–69) years, 77% were male and 35% had received at least one dose of SARS-CoV2 vaccine. There were 21 deaths at day 60 in each group, 15.1% in the baricitinib group and 15.4% in the placebo group (adjusted absolute difference and 95% CI − 0.1% [− 8·3 to 8·0]). In sensitivity analysis censoring observations after drug discontinuation or rescue therapy (tocilizumab/increased steroid dose), proportions of death were 5.8% versus 8.8% (− 3.2% [− 9.0 to 2.7]), respectively. There were 148 serious adverse events in 46 participants (33.1%) receiving baricitinib and 155 in 51 participants (37.5%) receiving placebo. In subgroup analyses, there was a potential interaction between vaccination status and treatment allocation on 60-day mortality. In a subsequent post hoc analysis there was a significant interaction between vaccination status and treatment allocation on the occurrence of serious adverse events, with more respiratory complications and severe infections in vaccinated participants treated with baricitinib. Vaccinated participants were on average 11 years older, with more comorbidities. Conclusion This clinical trial was prematurely stopped for external evidence and therefore underpowered to conclude on a potential survival benefit of baricitinib in severe/critical COVID-19. We observed a possible safety signal in vaccinated participants, who were older with more comorbidities. Although based on a post-hoc analysis, these findings warrant further investigation in other trials and real-world studies. Trial registration Bari-SolidAct is registered at NCT04891133 (registered May 18, 2021) and EUClinicalTrials.eu ( 2022-500385-99-00 )