Economic valuation of the impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe

The objective of this study is to provide a European assessment of the potential effects of climate change on agricultural crop production computing monetary estimates of these impacts for the European agricultural sector. The future scenarios incorporate socio economic projections derived from several SRES scenarios and climate projections obtained from global climate models and regional climate models. The quantitative results are based simulations using the GTAP general equilibrium models system that includes all relevant economic activities. The estimated changes in the exports and imports of agricultural goods, value of GDP and crop prices under the climate and socio-economic scenarios show significant regional differences between northern and southern European countries. The patterns are positive effects except on Mediterranean countries. The most important increases seem to concern the continental region, where the productivity increases enlarge GDP more intensively due to the importance of agricultural sector in the region. The monetary estimates also show that in all cases uncertainty derived from socio-economic scenarios has a larger effect than the ones derived from climate scenarios.agriculture, climate change, computable general equilibrium models, Environmental Economics and Policy,

Projections of economic impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe

RESUMEN This study provides monetary estimates of the impacts of climate change in European agriculture. Future scenarios are derived from several socio-economic scenarios and experiments conducted using global climate moedls and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model across simulations based on crop productivity changes that consider no restrictions in the volume of water available for irrigation in current irrigated areas or in the application of nitrogen fertilizer. Thus the results should be considered optimistic from the production point and pessimistic from the environmental point of view. Regional differences between northern and southern European countries are found and the monetary estimates show that uncertainty derived from socio-economic scenarios has a larger effect than uncertainty derived from climate scenarios. ABSTRACT Este estudio proporciona estimaciones económicas de los efectos del cambio climático en la agricultura Europeal. Los escenarios futuros incorporan proyecciones de cambios socio-económicos y variables climáticas derivadas de modelos de clima global y regional. La valoración económica utiliza el modelo de equilibrio general (GTAP), donde las simulaciones se basan en cambios en la productividad de los cultivos sin considerar restricciones en el volumen de agua de riego en las zonas actuales de regadío ni de fertilizantes. Así, los resultados se pueden considerar optimistas desde el punto de vista productivo, pero pesimistas desde el punto de vista ambiental. Se observan diferencias significativas entre el norte y el sur de Europa y las estimaciones económicas muestran que la incertidumbre asociada a los escenarios socio-económicos es mayor que la asociada a los escenarios climáticos.agriculture, climate change, general equilibrium models, agricultura, cambio climático, modelos de equilibrio general, Environmental Economics and Policy,

ADAPTATION OF MEDITERRANEAN CROPS TO WATER PRESSURE IN THE EBRO BASIN: A WATER EFFICIENCY INDEX

In this paper, we assess the output-oriented technical efficiency of agricultural production functions in order to compare, over time, economic and environmental production processes in the different regions of the Spanish Ebro basin, in a climate change context. The measurement of technical efficiency in agriculture can provide useful information about the competitiveness of farms and their potential to increase its productivity moreover can help in the crops adaptation to water pressure by improving the management of scarce resources. Here, we generate an agricultural water efficiency index to evaluate the adaptation of some Mediterranean crops to the water pressures in this area. We estimate frontier production functions and technical efficiency measures, using panel data models. This will allow us to observe changes in production due to individual specific effects and those that are time specific. To characterize our model, we use historical data, about crop yields, water requirements and climate as well as socio-economic and geographical aspects of the most representative crops in the provinces of the Ebro basin during 1976-2007. Then we generate a ranking of the most efficient crops across geographical areas, given their water use and other inputs, to evaluate policy scenarios with adjustments in water supply.water efficiency index in agriculture, Ebro basin, climate change adaptation, Crop Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Análisis del valor económico de la información meteorológica utilizada en la toma de decisiones sobre cultivos, en un contexto dinámico de gestión de riesgos

[EN] We evaluate the added value of a forecast service that can provide probabilistic predictions for adverse weather events for two differentiated seasons, corresponding to the same productive cycle. The paper builds on a cost-loss dynamic model, by considering the role of forecasting systems in the decision making process. We present the analytical solution for this problem which is consistent with the numerical results in the literature. However, we prove that there is a range of regions for the opti-mal policy depending on the cost of crop protection, the avoided loss and the quality of the information available. Finally, we illustrate the results with a numerical example.[ES] Evaluamos el valor añadido de los servicios meteorológicos que proporcionan predicciones probabilísticas para eventos climáticos adversos considerando dos estaciones diferentes, correspondi-entes a un mismo ciclo productivo. Este artículo se apoya en un modelo coste-pérdida dinámico para considerar el papel de los sistemas de predicción y alerta temprana en los procesos de toma de decisión. Se presenta la solución analítica para este problema, que es consistente con los resultados numéricos en la literatura. Sin embargo, probamos que la política óptima presenta numerosas regiones distintas depen-diendo del coste de proteger, la pérdida evitada y la calidad de la información disponible. Finalmente, ilustramos los resultados con un ejemplo numérico.We thank Barry Readman for the linguistic revision of the text. Emilio Cerdá thanks funding from the Spanish Ministry of Economía and Competitividad through the research project ECO2012-39553-C04-01.Cerdá, E.; Quiroga, S. (2015). Analysing the economic value of meteorological information to improve crop risk management decisions in a dynamic context. Economía Agraria y Recursos Naturales - Agricultural and Resource Economics. 15(2):5-30. https://doi.org/10.7201/earn.2015.02.01SWORD53015

Adapting agriculture to climate change

We evaluate the potential impacts and measure the potential limits of adaptation of agriculture to climate change. Pressures on land and water resources are expected to intensify existing risks in low latitude areas – e.g., South-East Asia deltas – and in regions with current water scarcity – e.g. Mediterranean, and create new opportunities in some northern temperate areas – e.g., Northern Russia, Northern Europe. The need to respond to these risks and opportunities is addressed by evaluating the costs and benefits of a number of technical and policy actions. The discussion aims to assist stakeholders facing the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the sector to climate change.Adaptation, climatic change, global production, mitigation, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C51, C53, Q17, Q18,

Impacts of Climate Change in Agriculture in Europe. PESETA-Agriculture Study

The objective of the study is to provide a European assessment of the potential effects of climate change on agricultural crop production and monetary estimates of these impacts for the European agricultural sector. The future scenarios incorporate socio economic projections derived from several SRES scenarios and climate projections obtained from global climate models and regional climate models. The work links biophysical and statistical models in a rigorous and testable methodology, based on current understanding of processes of crop growth and development, to quantify crop responses to changing climate conditions. European crop yield changes were modeled under the HadCM3/HIRHAM A2 and B2 scenarios for the period 2071 - 2100 and for the ECHAM4/RCA3 A2 scenario for the period 2011 - 2040. The yield changes include the direct positive effects of CO2 on the crops, the rainfed and irrigated simulations in each district. Although each scenario projects different results, all three scenarios are consistent in the spatial distribution of effects. Crop suitability and productivity increases in Northern Europe are caused by lengthened growing season, decreasing cold effects on growth, and extension of the frost-free period. Crop productivity decreases in Southern Europe are caused by shortening of the growing period, with subsequent negative effects on grain filling. It is very important to notice that the simulations considered no restrictions in water availability for irrigation due to changes in policy. In all cases, the simulations did not include restrictions in the application of nitrogen fertilizer. Therefore the results should be considered optimistic from the production point and pessimistic from the environmental point of view.JRC.J.2-The economics of climate change, energy and transpor

Economic valuation of the impacts of climate change in Agriculture in Europe

The objective of this study is to provide a European assessment of the potential effects of climate change on agricultural crop production computing monetary estimates of these impacts for the European agricultural sector. The future scenarios incorporate socio economic projections derived from several SRES scenarios and climate projections obtained from global climate models and regional climate models. The quantitative results are based simulations using the GTAP general equilibrium models system that includes all relevant economic activities. The estimated changes in the exports and imports of agricultural goods, value of GDP and crop prices under the climate and socio-economic scenarios show significant regional differences between northern and southern European countries. The patterns are positive effects except on Mediterranean countries. The most important increases seem to concern the continental region, where the productivity increases enlarge GDP more intensively due to the importance of agricultural sector in the region. The monetary estimates also show that in all cases uncertainty derived from socio-economic scenarios has a larger effect than the ones derived from climate scenarios

Analysing Physical and Socio-economic Risk in the Adaption of Agriculture to Climate Change (ARI)

Adapting agriculture to climate change requires an understanding of both natural impacts and the underlying vulnerability of socio-economic systems. Food production systems, essential to socio-economic activity throughout the world, are beginning to face the challenge of anthropogenic climate change in addition to the challenge of population growth and changing consumer patterns. Uncertainty surrounding climate change impacts, however, poses a serious challenge to agricultural adaptation. Additionally, since the effects of climate change will vary globally, changes in crop productivity will also differ from region to region. Thus, regional adaptive capacity must be considered locally in order to capture underlying socio-economic vulnerability. Our combined analysis of changes in crop productivity and adaptive capacity specifically highlights the seriousness of climate-change-related risks in Africa and South-East Asia. Conversely it is noted that some regions stand to make gains from the anticipated changes in climate

Adaptation of mediterranean agriculture to climate change: evaluation of some uncertainties

Ponencia presentada en: VII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología: clima, ciudad y ecosistemas, celebrado en Madrid entre el 24 y 26 de noviembre de 2010.[ES]El cambio climático resulta en variaciones regionales de los riesgos y oportunidades para la mayoría de los agricultores del Mediterráneo en las próximas décadas. La identificación de políticas y acciones adaptación, políticas y acciones por parte de los agricultores, es difícil puesteo que es difícil comprender la incertidumbre asociada a los impactos en distintas zonas y en distintos cultivos. En este estudio evaluamos algunos aspectos relacionados con esta incertidumbre en la agricultura mediterránea. El resultado final es una evaluación del nivel de riesgo que tienen distintos cultivos en distintas zonas para apoyar la toma de decisiones relacionadas con la adaptación.[EN]Climate change inevitably results in large regional variations of risks and opportunities and will be felt by most farmers in the Mediterranean in the next decades. The interpretation of results to determine appropriate policy response is troubled with difficulties, such as understanding the local uncertainty and the interpretation of specific crop responses. Here we provide an analysis of the impact of climate and likelihood for Mediterranean agriculture. We generate multiple projections of impacts based on different models of climate change and crop response in order to capture uncertainties

Prevalence and prognostic impact of inhalation injury among burn patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Meta-analisis[Abstract] Background: The objective of our study was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis aimed at assessing the prevalence of inhalation injury in burn patients and its prognostic value in relation to in-hospital mortality. Methods: We searched the PubMed and EMBASE databases for noninterventional studies published between 1990 and 2018 investigating in-hospital mortality predictors among burn patients.The primary meta-analysis evaluated the association between inhalation injury and mortality. A secondary meta-analysis determined the global estimate of the prevalence of inhalation injury and the rate of mortality. Random effects models were used, and univariate meta-regressions were used to assess sources of heterogeneity. This study is registered in the PROSPERO database with code CRD42019127356. Findings: Fifty-four studies including a total of 408,157 patients were selected for the analysis. A pooled inhalation prevalence of 15.7% (95% confidence interval, 13.4%-18.3%) was calculated.The summarized odds ratio of in-hospital mortality secondary to an inhalation injury was 3.2 (95% confidence interval, 2.5-4.3). A significantly higher odd of mortality was found among the studies that included all hospitalized burn patients, those that included a lower proportion of male patients, those with a lower mean total body surface area, and those with a lower prevalence of inhalation injury. Conclusion: Despite our study's limitations due to the high risk of bias and the interstudy heterogeneity of some of our analyses, our results revealed a wide range of prevalence rates of inhalation injury and a significant association between this entity and in-hospital mortality in burn patients. However, this association is not significant if adjusted for disease severity