Modelling and Simulation in Service of Energy Policy

AbstractModelling and simulation has long and well served the actors and various decision makers in the domain of energy policy. Various modelling approaches and models have been applied to address a variety of energy policy related issues. However, the journey continues. This paper provides an overview of these modelling approaches and models and identifies their key challenges in the face of emerging issues. The identified energy policy modelling related issues include the characterization of energy systems as complex, dynamic system with numerous uncertainties, non-linearities, time lags, and intertwined feedback loops. System dynamics modelling as a viable solution to address these issues is also suggested

Spate Irrigation: Impact of Climate Change with Specific Reference to Pakistan

Spate irrigation is a unique system of agriculture practiced in the piedmont plains by harvesting of floods received after rainfall in the mountains. This system is practiced in different parts of the world; in Pakistan, it is extensive in the western belt. The system is based on water distribution from head to tail. There are laws for distribution of water, but due to the magnitude of flood, it sometimes retains in the upstream and sometimes finds its way to the river. Agriculture practiced in this system depends on floods, which brings sedimentation, useful in replenishing soil fertility. Soil has the ability to hold moisture for long. The changing climatic pattern has greatly influenced the system both under droughts and floods. Livelihood of the spate farmers depends on agricultural crops and livestock. In either case of the extreme climate, they have to cope with limited options. Changing climatic pattern is responsible for extending the climatic seasons and enhancing the irrationality of floods. Construction of huge dam on the torrential watershed is a great project executed by the government for large floods, overcomes energy crisis, and has potential to irrigate land through canal. This chapter is a brief comprehension of spate irrigation under changing climate with special focus on Pakistan

System dynamics based learning environments: a technology for decision support and assessment

Traditionally decision support systems (DSS) are designed to help the users make better decisions. However, the empirical evidence concerning the impact of DSS on improved decision making and leaning in dynamic tasks is equivocal at best. In this article, we introduce a new type of DSS based system dynamics technology as tool not only to support users’ decision making and leaning but can also provide an effective assessment of the performance and learning as well

System dynamics advances strategic economic transition planning in a developing nation

The increasingly complex environment of today's world, characterized by technological innovation and global communication, generates myriads of possible and actual interactions while limited physical and intellectual resources severely impinge on decision makers, be it in the public or private domains. At the core of the decision-making process is the need for quality information that allows the decision maker to better assess the impact of decisions in terms of outcomes, nonlinear feedback processes and time delays on the performance of the complex system invoked. This volume is a timely review on the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic envrionments and of the various modeling approaches used. The book consists of five parts, each composed of several chapters: I: Complex Decision Making: Concepts, Theories and Empirical Evidence II: Tools and Techniques for Decision Making in Complex Environments and Systems III: System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling IV: Methodological Issues V: Future Direction

Role of Social Media in Civic-State Engagement and Political Apathy in New Public Sphere: A Survey of Faculty/Research-Scholars from Gomal & Qurtuba Universities DIK KP Pakistan

Social media [SM] has become a political platform in new public sphere for the politicians, governments and citizens. It is rapidly becoming a popular tool for political and social activism. It has become a smart instrument of protests and communication. Digital revolution is igniting political and social revolutions through social media using leading edge communication and data sharing gadgets. Social media has been found supporting civic-state engagement [CSE] and helpful in reducing political apathy [PA] particularly in the developing states like Pakistan. The events of last decade in the ‘Middle East have verified the powers of SM in political activism and breaking the ice of PA. This study explores the same theory of relationships among the academicians of higher education in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. The results confirm the hypotheses by giving significant statistics regarding both positive and negative relations of SM with CSE and PA respectively

Risk Factors of Diarrhoea in Malnourished Children Under Age of 5 Years

Background: Acute infectious enteritis remains one of the commonest causes of death among infants and children in developing countries. Acute enteritis is defined as a loss of stool consistency with pasty or liquid stools, and/or an increase in stool frequency to more than three stools in 24 hours with or without fever or vomiting. Human survival depends on the secretion and reabsorption of fluid and electrolytes in the intestinal tract. The objective of the study is to evaluate the risk factors of diarrhoea in children under age of 5 years. Methodology: It was an observational study. Study was completed in about six months. Non-probability purposive sampling technique was used. In this study, 270 samples were taken from Diarrheal ward of The Children Hospital Lahore, Pakistan. Results: In this study, out of 270 patients, 58.52% were males and 41.48% were females. 90.37% patients were vaccinated. 54.81% had weaning history. 91.85% patients had feeding history. 29.26% had blood in stool. 96.67% patients were dehydrated. 95.56% patients had loose watery diarrhoea. 62.96% patients used boiled water. 58.52% patients consumed less than half litre of water, 30.00% patients consumed 1 litre of water and 11.48% patients consumed > 1 litre of water. 49.18% patients had proper hygiene. 38.15% mothers of patients were well educated. 40.37% patients had model household condition. 57.41% patients lived in rural area and 42.59% patients lived in urban area. Conclusion: The variation in the level of diarrheal morbidity was well explained by maternal education, income, personal hygiene, refuse disposal system and the effect of health extension programme

Frequency of HIV in Obstructive Lung Disease Patients

Abstract Background: Obstructive lung disease (OLD) is one of the main causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Obstructive lung disease is the narrowing of bronchioles mainly due to excessive smooth muscle contraction. The objective of this study is to evaluate the Frequency of HIV in obstructive lung disease patients. Methodology: Samples were collected randomly, and study was completed in almost six months. 100 samples were taken with an informed consent taken from all the patients. EDTA and Clotted blood was collected for HIV ELISA and HIV screening. Results: In this study, 69% Males and 31%Females, 34% Smokers, 26% patients were Hypertensive, 10% patients were diabetic, 3% patients were diagnosed HIV positive by screening and ELISA. Conclusion: The frequency of HIV in obstructive lung disease patients in this research is not very high as compared to the previous researches, showing high frequency and relationship between HIV and obstructive lung disease patients. The reason behind low frequency is due to low sample size so by increasing the sample size we can get better understanding of frequency of HIV in obstructive lung disease patients. Another reason of insignificant results is low prevalence of HIV in Pakistan as compared to the previous researches in certain countries

Studying the Factors of Deprivation of Women from Inheritance in Afghan Society

Ignorance and illiteracy have had negative effects on various areas of life in Afghan society, including the deprivation of women from the right to inheritance. In fact, some ignorant and oblivious families have violated the indisputable right of women and are not ready to consider girls and women as their children regarding giving them the right of inheritance like sons. As Women are afraid of threats from their house guardians, has prevented them from claiming inheritance rights. In addition, Women are sometimes threatened with severance of social ties and access to their paternal family, so they dare not to claim their inheritance rights. Now the question is, why are Afghan women not given their inheritance right, although, it is their legitimate right in Islam? This is the question which rises in the mind of every wise, adult and sensible person. In this article, the above question is answered and the factors, consequences and ways to protect women from being deprived of the right to inheritance from the Islamic point of view are introduced. Finally, the research ends with the conclusion and the list of references

Analysis of the Dynamic Relationships among Renewable Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, Financial Development, and Carbon Dioxide Emission in Five Sub-Saharan African Countries

This research investigates the relationships among renewable energy consumption, economic growth, and financial development in five sub-Saharan African nations utilizing panel data from 2000 to 2020. Econometric methods are used to ascertain the existence or absence of cross-sectional dependence and the short-run and long-run connections between the following factors: Pesaran cross-sectional dependence (CD) and cross-sectionally augmented IPS (CIPS) unit root tests, pooled mean group (PMG), and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimations. The presence of cross-sectional dependence is found and represented with the CIPS unit root test. No significant short-run relationship is found between the variables of the study, yet a significant long-run relationship is present among them. A positive relationship exists between CO2 emissions and financial development, while financial development and renewable energy consumption are found to have negative relationships with CO2 emissions. The study also supports the scale effect of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. Additionally, no causality is found among the variables, and impulse response and variance decomposition estimation are carried out to recommend future effects. Policy implications of findings are discussed, with accompanying suggestions

Studying the Factors of Deprivation of Women from Inheritance in Afghan Society

Ignorance and illiteracy have had negative effects on various areas of life in Afghan society, including the deprivation of women from the right to inheritance. In fact, some ignorant and oblivious families have violated the indisputable right of women and are not ready to consider girls and women as their children regarding giving them the right of inheritance like sons. As Women are afraid of threats from their house guardians, has prevented them from claiming inheritance rights. In addition, Women are sometimes threatened with severance of social ties and access to their paternal family, so they dare not to claim their inheritance rights. Now the question is, why are Afghan women not given their inheritance right, although, it is their legitimate right in Islam? This is the question which rises in the mind of every wise, adult and sensible person. In this article, the above question is answered and the factors, consequences and ways to protect women from being deprived of the right to inheritance from the Islamic point of view are introduced. Finally, the research ends with the conclusion and the list of references