Multi-Decadal Changes in Mangrove Extent, Age and Species in the Red River Estuaries of Viet Nam

This research investigated the performance of four different machine learning supervised image classifiers: artificial neural network (ANN), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM) using SPOT-7 and Sentinel-1 images to classify mangrove age and species in 2019 in a Red River estuary, typical of others found in northern Viet Nam. The four classifiers were chosen because they are considered to have high accuracy, however, their use in mangrove age and species classifications has thus far been limited. A time-series of Landsat images from 1975 to 2019 was used to map mangrove extent changes using the unsupervised classification method of iterative self-organizing data analysis technique (ISODATA) and a comparison with accuracy of K-means classification, which found that mangrove extent has increased, despite a fall in the 1980s, indicating the success of mangrove plantation and forest protection efforts by local people in the study area. To evaluate the supervised image classifiers, 183 in situ training plots were assessed, 70% of them were used to train the supervised algorithms, with 30% of them employed to validate the results. In order to improve mangrove species separations, Gram–Schmidt and principal component analysis image fusion techniques were applied to generate better quality images. All supervised and unsupervised (2019) results of mangrove age, species, and extent were mapped and accuracy was evaluated. Confusion matrices were calculated showing that the classified layers agreed with the ground-truth data where most producer and user accuracies were greater than 80%. The overall accuracy and Kappa coefficients (around 0.9) indicated that the image classifications were very good. The test showed that SVM was the most accurate, followed by DT, ANN, and RF in this case study. The changes in mangrove extent identified in this study and the methods tested for using remotely sensed data will be valuable to monitoring and evaluation assessments of mangrove plantation projects

The compensatory reserve index predicts recurrent shock in patients with severe dengue

BACKGROUND: Dengue shock syndrome (DSS) is one of the major clinical phenotypes of severe dengue. It is defined by significant plasma leak, leading to intravascular volume depletion and eventually cardiovascular collapse. The compensatory reserve Index (CRI) is a new physiological parameter, derived from feature analysis of the pulse arterial waveform that tracks real-time changes in central volume. We investigated the utility of CRI to predict recurrent shock in severe dengue patients admitted to the ICU. METHODS: We performed a prospective observational study in the pediatric and adult intensive care units at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Patients were monitored with hourly clinical parameters and vital signs, in addition to continuous recording of the arterial waveform using pulse oximetry. The waveform data was wirelessly transmitted to a laptop where it was synchronized with the patient's clinical data. RESULTS: One hundred three patients with suspected severe dengue were recruited to this study. Sixty-three patients had the minimum required dataset for analysis. Median age was 11 years (IQR 8-14 years). CRI had a negative correlation with heart rate and moderate negative association with blood pressure. CRI was found to predict recurrent shock within 12 h of being measured (OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.54-3.26), P < 0.001). The median duration from CRI measurement to the first recurrent shock was 5.4 h (IQR 2.9-6.8). A CRI cutoff of 0.4 provided the best combination of sensitivity and specificity for predicting recurrent shock (0.66 [95% CI 0.47-0.85] and 0.86 [95% CI 0.80-0.92] respectively). CONCLUSION: CRI is a useful non-invasive method for monitoring intravascular volume status in patients with severe dengue

Thermal Properties of Carbon Nanotube–Copper Composites for Thermal Management Applications

Carbon nanotube–copper (CNT/Cu) composites have been successfully synthesized by means of a novel particles-compositing process followed by spark plasma sintering (SPS) technique. The thermal conductivity of the composites was measured by a laser flash technique and theoretical analyzed using an effective medium approach. The experimental results showed that the thermal conductivity unusually decreased after the incorporation of CNTs. Theoretical analyses revealed that the interfacial thermal resistance between the CNTs and the Cu matrix plays a crucial role in determining the thermal conductivity of bulk composites, and only small interfacial thermal resistance can induce a significant degradation in thermal conductivity for CNT/Cu composites. The influence of sintering condition on the thermal conductivity depended on the combined effects of multiple factors, i.e. porosity, CNTs distribution and CNT kinks or twists. The composites sintered at 600°C for 5 min under 50 MPa showed the maximum thermal conductivity. CNT/Cu composites are considered to be a promising material for thermal management applications

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29–39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities. This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity. Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017—and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions—was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing—and in some countries reversal—of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

Background Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30–79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age. Findings The number of people aged 30–79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306–359) million women and 317 (292–344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584–668) million women and 652 (604–698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55–62) of women and 49% (46–52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43–51) of women and 38% (35–41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20–27) for women and 18% (16–21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran. Interpretation Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings. Funding WHO

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants

Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia

The Flexible Initiation Test (FIT): A new experimental test to characterize fracture initiation in mode I at the free edge of bonded assemblies

International audienc

Comparisons of regression and machine learning methods for estimating mangrove above-ground biomass using multiple remote sensing data in the red River Estuaries of Vietnam

Currently, remote sensing platforms provide state-of-the-art data for multiple purposes including applications related to coastal wetlands. Mangrove above-ground biomass (MAGB) together with its extent is considered well correlated with the habitats’ environmental and economic values. Above-ground biomass can be estimated by models that integrate remote sensing, field data and statistical information. However, it remains difficult to decide which model and which data offer the best performance for any one study location. Hence, this study aims to assess the spatial change in MAGB over a 45-year period and investigate different approaches to quantify this change through linear and multi linear regression models. Specifically, we test a non-linear model (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines; MARS), and non-parametric machine learning models, to predict MAGB using vegetation indices and biophysical variables derived from optical remote sensing data from Sentinel-2, Landsat-8, SPOT-7 and synthetic aperture radar remote sensing data from ALOS-2. The multi linear regression (MLR) and the MARS models were trained by field measured MAGB data to a good level of accuracy (R2 = 0.80 and RMSE = 5.56 Mg ha−1 for MLR and R2 = 0.89, RMSE = 5.42 Mg ha−1 for MARS). These models were subsequently applied to Landsat 2, 5 and 8 time-series images to assess changes in MAGB values and mangrove forest extent over the period 1975 to 2020. To ensure accurate training data for the models, we conducted field work to measure MAGB in 24 plots measured in May 2019. Findings showed that the MARS model generated MAGB values with higher accuracy than linear regression and multi linear regression models. Uses of vegetation indices (Normalized Differenced Vegetation Index, Soil-adjusted Vegetation Index, Green-Normalized Differenced Vegetation Index, Simple Ratio, and Red-edge Simple Ratio) generated MAGB values with accuracy slightly higher than using biophysical variables (Leaf area index, Fraction of Absorbed Radiation, Fractional vegetation cover, and Leaf chlorophyll content). Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 were effective data sources for MAGB estimates, while SPOT-7 and ALOS-2 produced acceptable MAGB accuracy. Modelling the Landsat time series found an increase in both MAGB values and forest extent over the 1975–2020 period. The MARS model, Sentinel-2, Landsat 8 and vegetation indices are the recommended models and data to use to measure MAGB and could be used to understand changes in MAGB and forest extent at national and regional scales