A new hybrid approach to human error probability quantification-applications in maritime operations

Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) has always been an essential research issue in safety critical systems. Cognitive Reliability Error Analysis Method (CREAM), as a well-known second generation HRA method is capable of conducting both retrospective and prospective analysis, thus being widely used in many sectors. However, the needs of addressing the use of a deterministic approach to configure common performance conditions (CPCs) and the assignment of the same importance to all the CPCs in a traditional CREAM method reveal a significant research gap to be fulfilled. This paper describes a modified CREAM methodology based on an Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach and a Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique for making human error probability quantification in CREAM rational. An illustrative case study associated with maritime operations is presented. The proposed method is validated by sensitivity analysis and the quantitative analysis result is verified through comparing the real data collected from Shanghai coastal waters. Its main contribution lies in that it for the first time addresses the data incompleteness in HEP, given that the previous relevant studies mainly focus on the fuzziness in data. The findings will provide useful insights for quantitative assessment of seafarers' errors to reduce maritime risks due to human errors

Interaction of a novel red-region fluorescent probe, Nile Blue, with DNA and its application to nucleic acids assay

A novel fluorimetric method was developed for the rapid determination of DNA and RNA based on their quenching effect on the cationic red-region fluorescent dye Nile Blue (NB) In the investigation of the interaction of NE with DNA by steady-state polarization measurements, thermal denaturing study, determination of absorption and fluorescence characteristics, salt effect study and electrophoresis experiments, the results supported the suggestion that NE served as an intercalator to the stack base pairs of nucleic acids. Further evidence showed that the quenching could be ascribed to the static quenching mode. A binding constant of about 10(6) M-1 and a binding site size of about three base pairs were obtained by spectral methods. Under optimum conditions, the calibration curves for the determination of calf thymus DNA (CT DNA) and yeast RNA were linear over the ranges 3.0 ng mL(-1)-2.0 mu g mL(-1) and 27 ng mL(-1)-10 mu g mL(-1), respectively, The detection limits were 3.0 ng mL(-1) for CT DNA and 27 ng mL(-1) for RNA. The relative standard deviation (n = 6) was within 2.1% in the middle of the linear range. Interferences from some interesting co-existing substances in the determination of DNA were also examined

Large-scale Synthesis of β-SiC Nanochains and Their Raman/Photoluminescence Properties

Although the SiC/SiO2 nanochain heterojunction has been synthesized, the chained homogeneous nanostructure of SiC has not been reported before. Herein, the novel β-SiC nanochains are synthesized assisted by the AAO template. The characterized results demonstrate that the nanostructures are constructed by spheres of 25–30 nm and conjoint wires of 15–20 nm in diameters. Raman and photoluminescence measurements are used to explore the unique optical properties. A speed-alternating vapor–solid (SA-VS) growth mechanism is proposed to interpret the formation of this typical nanochains. The achieved nanochains enrich the species of one-dimensional (1D) nanostructures and may hold great potential applications in nanotechnology

Wettability of amorphous and nanocrystalline Fe78B13Si9 substrates by molten Sn and Bi

The wettability of amorphous and annealing-induced nanocrystalline Fe78B13Si9 ribbons by molten Sn and Bi at 600 K was measured using an improved sessile drop method. The results demonstrate that the structural relaxation and crystallization in the amorphous substrates do not substantially change the wettability with molten Bi because of their invariable physical interaction, but remarkably deteriorate the wettability and interfacial bonding with molten Sn as a result of changing a chemical interaction to a physical one for the atoms at the interface

Synthesis and Photoluminescence Property of Silicon Carbide Nanowires Via Carbothermic Reduction of Silica

Silicon carbide nanowires have been synthesized at 1400 °C by carbothermic reduction of silica with bamboo carbon under normal atmosphere pressure without metallic catalyst. X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, energy-dispersive spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy and Fourier transformed infrared spectroscopy were used to characterize the silicon carbide nanowires. The results show that the silicon carbide nanowires have a core–shell structure and grow along <111> direction. The diameter of silicon carbide nanowires is about 50–200 nm and the length from tens to hundreds of micrometers. The vapor–solid mechanism is proposed to elucidate the growth process. The photoluminescence of the synthesized silicon carbide nanowires shows significant blueshifts, which is resulted from the existence of oxygen defects in amorphous layer and the special rough core–shell interface

Acetylation of the Pro-Apoptotic Factor, p53 in the Hippocampus following Cerebral Ischemia and Modulation by Estrogen

Recent studies demonstrate that acetylation of the transcription factor, p53 on lysine(373) leads to its enhanced stabilization/activity and increased susceptibility of cells to stress. However, it is not known whether acetylation of p53 is altered in the hippocampus following global cerebral ischemia (GCI) or is regulated by the hormone, 17β-estradiol (17β-E(2)), and thus, this study examined these issues.The study revealed that Acetyl p53-Lysine(373) levels were markedly increased in the hippocampal CA1 region after GCI at 3 h, 6 h and 24 h after reperfusion, an effect strongly attenuated by 17β-E(2). 17β-E(2) also enhanced interaction of p53 with the ubiquitin ligase, Mdm2, increased ubiquitination of p53, and induced its down-regulation, as well as attenuated elevation of the p53 transcriptional target, Puma. We also observed enhanced acetylation of p53 at a different lysine (Lys(382)) at 3 h after reperfusion, and 17β-E(2) also markedly attenuated this effect. Furthermore, administration of an inhibitor of CBP/p300 acetyltransferase, which acetylates p53, was strongly neuroprotective of the CA1 region following GCI. In long-term estrogen deprived (LTED) animals, the ability of 17β-E(2) to attenuate p53 acetylation was lost, and intriguingly, Acetyl p53-Lysine(373) levels were markedly elevated in sham (non-ischemic) LTED animals. Finally, intracerebroventricular injections of Gp91ds-Tat, a specific NADPH oxidase (NOX2) inhibitor, but not the scrambled tat peptide control (Sc-Tat), attenuated acetylation of p53 and reduced levels of Puma following GCI.The studies demonstrate that p53 undergoes enhanced acetylation in the hippocampal CA1 region following global cerebral ischemia, and that the neuroprotective agent, 17β-E(2), markedly attenuates the ischemia-induced p53 acetylation. Furthermore, following LTED, the suppressive effect of 17β-E(2) on p53 acetylation is lost, and p53 acetylation increases in the hippocampus, which may explain previous reports of increased sensitivity of the hippocampus to ischemic stress following LTED

Highly Efficient Near-IR Photoluminescence of Er3+ Immobilized in Mesoporous SBA-15

SiO2 mesoporous molecular sieve SBA-15 with the incorporation of erbium ions is studied as a novel type of nanoscopic composite photoluminescent material in this paper. To enhance the photoluminescence efficiency, two schemes have been used for the incorporation of Er3+ where (1) Er3+ is ligated with bis-(perfluoromethylsulfonyl)-aminate (PMS) forming Er(PMS)x-SBA-15 and (2) Yb3+ is codoped with Er3+ forming Yb-Er-SBA-15. As high as 11.17 × 10−21cm2 of fluorescent cross section at 1534 nm and 88 nm of “effective bandwidth” have been gained. It is a 29.3% boost in fluorescent cross section compared to what has been obtained in conventional silica. The upconversion coefficient in Yb-Er-SBA-15 is relatively small compared to that in other ordinary glass hosts. The increased fluorescent cross section and lowered upconversion coefficient could benefit for the high-gain optical amplifier. Finally, the Judd–Ofelt theory has also been used for the analyses of the optical spectra of Er(PMS)x-SBA-15

The Interactive Effects of Ammonia and Microcystin on Life-History Traits of the Cladoceran Daphnia magna: Synergistic or Antagonistic?

The occurrence of Microcystis blooms is a worldwide concern that has caused numerous adverse effects on water quality and lake ecology. Elevated ammonia and microcystin concentrations co-occur during the degradation of Microcystis blooms and are toxic to aquatic organisms; we studied the relative and combined effects of these on the life history of the model organism Daphnia magna. Ammonia and microcystin-LR treatments were: 0, 0.366, 0.581 mg L−1 and 0, 10, 30, 100 µg L−1, respectively. Experiments followed a fully factorial design. Incubations were 14 d and recorded the following life-history traits: number of moults, time to first batch of eggs, time to first clutch, size at first batch of eggs, size at first clutch, number of clutches per female, number of offspring per clutch, and total offspring per female. Both ammonia and microcystin were detrimental to most life-history traits. Interactive effects of the toxins occurred for five traits: the time to first batch of eggs appearing in the brood pouch, time to first clutch, size at first clutch, number of clutches, and total offspring per female. The interactive effects of ammonia and microcystin appeared to be synergistic on some parameters (e.g., time to first eggs) and antagonistic on others (e.g., total offspring per female). In conclusion, the released toxins during the degradation of Microcystis blooms would result, according to our data, in substantially negative effect on D. magna

Validation and refinement of two interpretable models for coronavirus disease 2019 prognosis prediction

Objective: To validate two proposed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prognosis models, analyze the characteristics of different models, consider the performance of models in predicting different outcomes, and provide new insights into the development and use of artificial intelligence (AI) predictive models in clinical decision-making for COVID-19 and other diseases. Materials and Methods: We compared two proposed prediction models for COVID-19 prognosis that use a decision tree and logistic regression modeling. We evaluated the effectiveness of different model-building strategies using laboratory tests and/or clinical record data, their sensitivity and robustness to the timings of records used and the presence of missing data, and their predictive performance and capabilities in single-site and multicenter settings. Results: The predictive accuracies of the two models after retraining were improved to 93.2% and 93.9%, compared with that of the models directly used, with accuracies of 84.3% and 87.9%, indicating that the prediction models could not be used directly and require retraining based on actual data. In addition, based on the prediction model, new features obtained by model comparison and literature evidence were transferred to integrate the new models with better performance. Conclusions: Comparing the characteristics and differences of datasets used in model training, effective model verification, and a fusion of models is necessary in improving the performance of AI models