Health and economic impact of rotavirus vaccination in GAVI-eligible countries

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Rotavirus infection is responsible for about 500,000 deaths annually, and the disease burden is disproportionately borne by children in low-income countries. Recently the World Health Organization (WHO) has released a global recommendation that all countries include infant rotavirus vaccination in their national immunization programs. Our objective was to provide information on the expected health, economic and financial consequences of rotavirus vaccines in the 72 GAVI support-eligible countries.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We synthesized population-level data from various sources (primarily from global-level databases) for the 72 countries eligible for the support by the GAVI Alliance (GAVI-eligible countries) in order to estimate the health and economic impact associated with rotavirus vaccination programs. The primary outcome measure was incremental cost (in 2005 international dollars [I$]) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. We also projected the expected reduction in rotavirus disease burden and financial resources required associated with a variety of scale-up scenarios.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Under the base-case assumptions (70$25 per vaccinated child (~$5 per dose), the number of countries with the incremental cost per DALY averted less than I$200 was 47. Using the WHO's cost-effectiveness threshold based on per capita GDP, the vaccines were considered cost-effective in 68 of the 72 countries (~94%). A 10-year routine rotavirus vaccination would prevent 0.9-2.8 million rotavirus associated deaths among children under age 5 in the poorest parts of the world, depending on vaccine scale-up scenarios. Over the same intervention period, rotavirus vaccination programs would also prevent 4.5-13.3 million estimated cases of hospitalization and 41-107 million cases of outpatient clinic visits in the same population.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our findings suggest that rotavirus vaccination would be considered a worthwhile investment for improving general development as well as childhood health level in most low-income countries, with a favorable cost-effectiveness profile even under a vaccine price ($1.5-$5.0 per dose) higher than those of traditional childhood vaccines.</p

Risk of cancer-specific, cardiovascular, and all-cause mortality among Asian and Pacific Islander breast cancer survivors in the United States, 1991–2011

Asian and Pacific Islander (API) women in the United States (U.S.) are a heterogeneous group reported to have better prognosis after breast cancer (BC) compared to their Non-Hispanic White (NHW) counterparts. Few studies have examined differences in BC survival between individual API ethnic groups. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 462,005 NHW and 44,531 API women diagnosed with incident, stage I–III BC between 1991 and 2011 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) 18 registries. SEER-reported API ethnicity was grouped as Chinese, Japanese, Filipino, Hawaiian, Korean, Vietnamese, Asian Indian and Pakistani, and Pacific Islander. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for risk of BC-specific, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality comparing API to NHW women. We also estimated mortality risk comparing U.S.-born to non-U.S.-born women. Compared to NHW women, API women overall had lower BC-specific, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. BC-specific mortality risk was lowest among Japanese women (HR 0.69, 95 % CI 0.63–0.77). Other women had similar (Filipino, HR 0.93, 0.86–1.00; Hawaiian, HR 1.01, 0.89–1.17) or greater (Pacific Islander, HR 1.44, 1.17–1.78) risk of BC-specific death. Compared to non-U.S. born API women, findings were suggestive of increased cardiovascular (HR 1.12, 1.03–1.20) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.29, 1.08–1.54) among U.S.-born API women. Mortality risk varies greatly between BC survivors from different API backgrounds. Further research is warranted to understand these disparities in BC survivorship and the social and cultural factors that possibly contribute to greater mortality among later-generation API women born in the United States

Construction of predictive models for recurrence and progression in &gt;1000 patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) from a single centre.

OBJECTIVE: To construct predictive models based on the objectively calculated risks of progression and recurrence of non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) in a large cohort of patients from a single centre. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between October 1984 and March 2009 a cohort of 1019 patients (877 males; 142 females; median age 44 years) with histologically confirmed NMIBC was included in this study. Among these patients, 74% received bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG)-based therapy. Complete transurethral resection of bladder tumour of all visible tumours was carried out in all patients, and the stage and grade were determined. Univariate analysis and multivariate Cox regression were used to identify predictors of recurrence and progression. The studied predictors included age, sex, stage, grade, associated carcinoma in situ, tumour size, multiplicity, macroscopic appearance of the tumour, history of recurrence and type of adjuvant intravesical therapy. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to develop the 12- and 60-month recurrence and progression predictive models. The predictive accuracy of the models was assessed for discrimination as well as calibration. RESULTS: The median (range) follow-up was 44 (6-254) months. On multivariate analysis, stage, multiplicity, history of recurrence and adjuvant intravesical therapy were significantly associated with recurrence, whereas for progression only tumour grade and size were significant independent predictors. The constructed nomograms had a 64.9% and 69.4% chance of correctly distinguishing between two patients, one destined to have a recurrence and one not at 12 and 60 months, respectively. The constructed nomograms had a 70.2% and 73.5% chance of correctly distinguishing between two patients, one destined to progress and one not at 12 and 60 months, respectively. All predictive models were well calibrated. CONCLUSIONS: Based on multivariate analysis of the studied prognostic factors nomograms for predicting recurrence and progression in NMIBC were constructed. Most of the studied patients had received BCG-based therapy, making these models more closely applicable to contemporary practice than others. These predictive models have reasonable discriminative ability and are well calibrated, but require external validation before they can be applied to other populations

Predicting Life Expectancy in Men Diagnosed with Prostate Cancer

Context: The widespread use of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening has led to the detection of more indolent prostate cancer (PCa) in healthy men. PCa treatment and screening must therefore balance the potential for life gained against the potential for harm. Fundamental to this balance is physician awareness of a patient's estimated life expectancy (LE). Objective: To review the evidence on LE differences between men diagnosed with PCa and the general population. To examine clinician-and model-predicted LE and publicly available LE calculators. Evidence acquisition: A comprehensive search of the PubMed database between 1990 and September 2014 was performed according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. Free text protocols of the following search terms were used "life expectancy prostate cancer", "life expectancy non-cancer", "non-cancer mortality prostate", and "comorbidity-adjusted life expectancy". Two internet search engines were queried daily for 1 mo for the search term "life expectancy calculator", and the top 20 results were examined. Evidence synthesis: Of 992 articles and 32 websites screened, 17 articles and nine websites were selected for inclusion. Men with non-screening-detected PCa and distant disease at diagnosis were found to have shorter LE than age-matched peers, whereas men with localized PCa had prolonged LE. In general, clinician-predicted 10-yr LE was pessimistic and of limited accuracy; however, model-predicted LE provided only modest improvements in accuracy (c-index of models 0.65-0.84). Online LE calculators provide consistent LE estimates, but government life tables provide LE estimates near the mean for all calculators examined. Conclusions: The accuracy of clinician-predicted survival is limited, and while available statistical models offer improvement in discrimination, it is unclear whether they provide advantages over freely available government life tables. Patient summary: We examined differences in life expectancy between men diagnosed with prostate cancer and the general population, and ways of predicting life expectancy to help guide treatment decisions. We found that current models for predicting life expectancy specific to prostate cancer might not be any better than government life tables or simple rules of thumb. (C) 2015 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved