A two-dimensional model of the quasi biennial oscillation of ozone

The largest amplitudes of the observed Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in column ozone are found in high latitudes and this must be taken into account in any explanation of the increased depletion of ozone in the southern polar spring during the 1980's. A QBO in zonal wind, temperature and column ozone has been successfully modelled in a two-dimensional dynamical/chemical model by the introduction of a parameterization scheme to model the transfer of momentum to the zonal flow associated with the damping of vertically propagating Kelvin and Rossby-Gravity waves. The largest anomalies in column ozone of approximately 20 DU are present at high latitudes. The equatorial ozone QBO is out of phase with the mid- and high-latitude ozone QBO, in good agreement with observations

Meteorology and Cimatology: On-Line Weather Studies

Through the Virginia Earth Science Collaborative (VESC), a partnership of nine institutes of higher education, non-profit organizations, and eighty-three school divisions, a 3-credit, graduate-level meteorology course was offered six times between Spring 2006 and Fall 2007. The course, entitled Meteorology, was offered at three locations (Richmond, Abingdon, and Harrisonburg), and a local instructor facilitated each section. Funding for the course development, instructor stipends, and participant expenses (including travel, meals, and tuition) was provided through a competitive Mathematics and Science Partnership (MSP) grant funded through the federal No Child Left Behind legislation of 2001. The framework of the course was the American Meteorological Society\u27s Online Weather Studies program, which provides meteorological content and laboratory investigations, and relies heavily on the use of Internet-accessed, real-time weather data to teach meteorological topics in a distance learning format. The 115 teacher participants were required to complete text readings and written assignments, conduct laboratory investigations, design projects using real—time meteorological data, complete exams, and attend three face-to-face meetings. For the purpose of the VESC grant evaluation, pre-test and post-test data were collected on 110 of the participants which indicated an average 14.7% increase in participants‘ content knowledge and use of real-time meteorological products (weather maps, satellite images, station models, etc.) in their instructional delivery

The large-scale modulation of cosmic rays in mid-1982: Its dependence on heliospheric longitude and radius

Near solar maximum, a series of large radial solar wind shocks in June and July 1982 provided a unique opportunity to study the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays with an array of spacecraft widely separated both in heliocentric radius and longitude. By eliminating hysteresis effects it is possible to begin to separate radial and azimuthal effects in the outer heliosphere. On the large scale, changes in modulation (both the increasing and recovery phases) propagate outward at close to the solar wind velocity, except for the near-term effects of solar wind shocks, which may propagate at a significantly higher velocity. In the outer heliosphere, azimuthal effects are small in comparison with radial effects for large-scale modulation at solar maximum

Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century

The ozone radiative forcings (RFs) resulting from projected changes in climate, ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), non-methane ozone precursor emissions and methane between the years 2000 and 2100 are calculated using simulations from the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model (UK Met Office's Unified Model containing the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols sub-model). Projected measures to improve air-quality through reductions in non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor emissions present a co-benefit for climate, with a net global mean ozone RF of −0.09 W m‾². This is opposed by a positive ozone RF of 0.05 W m‾² due to future decreases in ODSs, which is driven by an increase in tropospheric ozone through stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of air containing higher ozone amounts. An increase in methane abundance by more than a factor of 2 (as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario) is found to drive an ozone RF of 0.18 W m‾², which would greatly outweigh the climate benefits of non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor reductions. A small fraction (∼ 15 %) of the ozone RF due to the projected increase in methane results from increases in stratospheric ozone. The sign of the ozone RF due to future changes in climate (including the radiative effects of greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes) is shown to be dependent on the greenhouse gas emissions pathway, with a positive RF (0.05 W m‾²) for RCP4.5 and a negative RF (−0.07 W m‾²) for the RCP8.5 scenario. This dependence arises mainly from differences in the contribution to RF from stratospheric ozone changes. Considering the increases in tropopause height under climate change causes only small differences (≤ |0.02| W m‾²) for the stratospheric, tropospheric and whole-atmosphere RFs

The 1973-1984 Solar Modulation of Cosmic Ray Nuclei

As a continuation of the program of solar modulation studies, new measurements were carried out with the cosmic ray telescope on the Earth satellite IMP-8, of the intensity time variations and the energy spectra of galactic cosmic ray protons, helium, carbon and oxygen from 1980 through 1984 including the recent solar maximum. In order to test the applicability of a steady state model of solar modulation during a period which includes times of rapidly changing modulation, these fluxes were equated with the predictions of a conventional model of solar modulation which assumes equilibrium between modulation mechanisms. It is found that for a reasonable range of variations of the diffusion coefficient the model predictions can be made to agree with the measurements at essentially all times during the studied period. The model can account also for the observed hysteresis effects between cosmic rays of different rigidities

Galactic cosmic ray radial gradients and the anomalous He component near maximum solar modulation and to radii beyond 34 AU from the Sun

Radial gradients for relativistic galactic cosmic rays (E 70 MeV) remained nearly constant at approx. 2.5%/AU from 1978-84, which includes the period of maximum solar modulation in 1981-82. For energies 30-70 MeV/n, gradients decreased at solar maximum to values of 1%/AU (protons) and 4%/AU (helium), and appear to be increasing again in 1983-84 toward the values found for solar minimum. The anomalous helium component has not reappeared, either at 1 AU or at Pioneer 10 at R 34 AU

Clouds, photolysis and regional tropospheric ozone budgets.

We use a three-dimensional chemical transport model to examine the shortwave radiative effects of clouds on the tropospheric ozone budget. In addition to looking at changes in global concentrations as previous studies have done, we examine changes in ozone chemical production and loss caused by clouds and how these vary in different parts of the troposphere. On a global scale, we find that clouds have a modest effect on ozone chemistry, but on a regional scale their role is much more significant, with the size of the response dependent on the region. The largest averaged changes in chemical budgets (±10–14%) are found in the marine troposphere, where cloud optical depths are high. We demonstrate that cloud effects are small on average in the middle troposphere because this is a transition region between reduction and enhancement in photolysis rates. We show that increases in boundary layer ozone due to clouds are driven by large-scale changes in downward ozone transport from higher in the troposphere rather than by decreases in in-situ ozone chemical loss rates. Increases in upper tropospheric ozone are caused by higher production rates due to backscattering of radiation and consequent increases in photolysis rates, mainly J(NO2). The global radiative effect of clouds on isoprene, through decreases of OH in the lower troposphere, is stronger than on ozone. Tropospheric isoprene lifetime increases by 7% when taking clouds into account. We compare the importance of clouds in contributing to uncertainties in the global ozone budget with the role of other radiatively-important factors. The budget is most sensitive to the overhead ozone column, while surface albedo and clouds have smaller effects. However, uncertainty in representing the spatial distribution of clouds may lead to a large sensitivity of the ozone budget components on regional scales

Impact of climate change on tropospheric ozone and its global budgets

International audienceWe present the chemistry-climate model UMCAM in which a relatively detailed tropospheric chemical module has been incorporated into the UK Met Office's Unified Model version 4.5. We obtain good agreements between the modelled ozone/nitrogen species and a range of observations including surface ozone measurements, ozone sonde data, and some aircraft campaigns. Four 2100 calculations assess model responses to projected changes of anthropogenic emissions (SRES A2), climate change (due to doubling CO2), and idealised climate change-associated changes in biogenic emissions (i.e. 50% increase of isoprene emission and doubling emissions of soil-NOx). The global tropospheric ozone burden increases significantly for all the 2100 A2 simulations, with the largest response caused by the increase of anthropogenic emissions. Climate change has diverse impacts on O3 and its budgets through changes in circulation and meteorological variables. Increased water vapour causes a substantial ozone reduction especially in the tropical lower troposphere (>10 ppbv reduction over the tropical ocean). On the other hand, an enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange of ozone, which increases by 80% due to doubling CO2, contributes to ozone increases in the extratropical free troposphere which subsequently propagate to the surface. Projected higher temperatures favour ozone chemical production and PAN decomposition which lead to high surface ozone levels in certain regions. Enhanced convection transports ozone precursors more rapidly out of the boundary layer resulting in an increase of ozone production in the free troposphere. Lightning-produced NOx increases by about 22% in the doubled CO2 climate and contributes to ozone production. The response to the increase of isoprene emissions shows that the change of ozone is largely determined by background NOx levels: high NOx environment increases ozone production; isoprene emitting regions with low NOx levels see local ozone decreases, and increase of ozone levels in the remote region due to the influence of PAN chemistry. The calculated ozone changes in response to a 50% increase of isoprene emissions are in the range of between ?8 ppbv to 6 ppbv. Doubling soil-NOx emissions will increase tropospheric ozone considerably, with up to 5 ppbv in source regions

Interannual variability of tropospheric composition:the influence of changes in emissions, meteorology and clouds

We have run a chemistry transport model (CTM) to systematically examine the drivers of interannual variability of tropospheric composition during 1996-2000. This period was characterised by anomalous meteorological conditions associated with the strong El Nino of 1997-1998 and intense wildfires, which produced a large amount of pollution. On a global scale, changing meteorology (winds, temperatures, humidity and clouds) is found to be the most important factor driving interannual variability of NO2 and ozone on the timescales considered. Changes in stratosphere-troposphere exchange, which are largely driven by meteorological variability, are found to play a particularly important role in driving ozone changes. The strong influence of emissions on NO2 and ozone interannual variability is largely confined to areas where intense biomass burning events occur. For CO, interannual variability is almost solely driven by emission changes, while for OH meteorology dominates, with the radiative influence of clouds being a very strong contributor. Through a simple attribution analysis for 1996-2000 we conclude that changing cloudiness drives 25% of the interannual variability of OH over Europe by affecting shortwave radiation. Over Indonesia this figure is as high as 71%. Changes in cloudiness contribute a small but non-negligible amount (up to 6%) to the interannual variability of ozone over Europe and Indonesia. This suggests that future assessments of trends in tropospheric oxidizing capacity should account for interannual variability in cloudiness, a factor neglected in many previous studies