Development of post-COVID-19 cardiovascular events: An analysis of clinical features and risk factors from a single hospital retrospective study

Cardiovascular complications after a SARS-CoV-2 infection are a phenomenon of relevant scientific inter-est. The aim of this study was to analyze the onset of post-COVID-19 cardiovascular events in patients hospitalized in a tertiary care center. This is a retrospective study conducted on patients hospitalized over a period of three months. The patients were older than 18 years of age and had a diagnosis of COVID-19 infection confirmed from a nasopharyngeal swab sample. Anamnestic and clinical-laboratory data were collected. Cardiovascular events at 30 days were defined as follows: arrhythmias, myocardial infarction, myocarditis, and pulmonary embolism. Univariate analysis (Student\u2019s t-test or Mann-Whitney U test, as appropriate) and multivariate analysis (multinomial logistic regression) were applied to the data. A total of 394 patients were included; they were mostly males and had a median age of 65.5 years. Previous cardiovascular disease was present in 14.7% of patients. Oxygen therapy was required for 77.9%, and 53% received anticoagulant therapy. The overall 30-day mortality was 20.3%. A cardiovascular event developed in 15.7% of the subjects. These were mainly pulmonary embolism (9.4%), followed by arrhythmias (3.3%), myocardial infarction (2.3%), and myocarditis (0.8%). Patients who developed cardiovascular events upon univariate analysis were significantly older, with major comorbidities, a more compromised respiratory situation, and a higher mortality rate. Multivariate analysis revealed independent factors that were significantly associated with the development of cardiovascular events: hypertension, endotracheal intubation, and age older than 75 years. In patients with COVID-19, the development of a cardiovascular event occurs quite frequently and is mainly seen in elderly subjects with comorbidities (especially hypertension) in the presence of a severe respiratory picture

Tocilizumab in patients with severe COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study

Background: No therapy is approved for COVID-19 pneumonia. The aim of this study was to assess the role of tocilizumab in reducing the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation and death in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia who received standard of care treatment. Methods: This retrospective, observational cohort study included adults ( 6518 years) with severe COVID-19 pneumonia who were admitted to tertiary care centres in Bologna and Reggio Emilia, Italy, between Feb 21 and March 24, 2020, and a tertiary care centre in Modena, Italy, between Feb 21 and April 30, 2020. All patients were treated with the standard of care (ie, supplemental oxygen, hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, antiretrovirals, and low molecular weight heparin), and a non-randomly selected subset of patients also received tocilizumab. Tocilizumab was given either intravenously at 8 mg/kg bodyweight (up to a maximum of 800 mg) in two infusions, 12 h apart, or subcutaneously at 162 mg administered in two simultaneous doses, one in each thigh (ie, 324 mg in total), when the intravenous formulation was unavailable. The primary endpoint was a composite of invasive mechanical ventilation or death. Treatment groups were compared using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analysis after adjusting for sex, age, recruiting centre, duration of symptoms, and baseline Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score. Findings: Of 1351 patients admitted, 544 (40%) had severe COVID-19 pneumonia and were included in the study. 57 (16%) of 365 patients in the standard care group needed mechanical ventilation, compared with 33 (18%) of 179 patients treated with tocilizumab (p=0\ub741; 16 [18%] of 88 patients treated intravenously and 17 [19%] of 91 patients treated subcutaneously). 73 (20%) patients in the standard care group died, compared with 13 (7%; p<0\ub70001) patients treated with tocilizumab (six [7%] treated intravenously and seven [8%] treated subcutaneously). After adjustment for sex, age, recruiting centre, duration of symptoms, and SOFA score, tocilizumab treatment was associated with a reduced risk of invasive mechanical ventilation or death (adjusted hazard ratio 0\ub761, 95% CI 0\ub740\u20130\ub792; p=0\ub7020). 24 (13%) of 179 patients treated with tocilizumab were diagnosed with new infections, versus 14 (4%) of 365 patients treated with standard of care alone (p<0\ub70001). Interpretation: Treatment with tocilizumab, whether administered intravenously or subcutaneously, might reduce the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation or death in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia. Funding: None

Impact of social determinants on antiretroviral therapy access and outcomes entering the era of universal treatment for people living with HIV in Italy

Background: Social determinants are known to be a driving force of health inequalities, even in high income countries. Aim of our study was to determine if these factors can limit antiretroviral therapy (ART) access, outcome and retention in care of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Italy. Methods: All ART naïve HIV+ patients (pts) of Italian nationality enrolled in the ICONA Cohort from 2002 to 2016 were included. The association of socio-demographic characteristics (age, sex, risk factor for HIV infection, educational level, occupational status and residency area) with time to: ART initiation (from the first positive anti-HIV test), ART regimen discontinuation, and first HIV-RNA &lt; 50 cp/mL, were evaluated by Cox regression analysis, Kaplan Meier method and log-rank test. Results: A total of 8023 HIV+ pts (82% males, median age at first pos anti-HIV test 36 years, IQR: 29-44) were included: 6214 (77.5%) started ART during the study period. Women, people who inject drugs (PWID) and residents in Southern Italy presented the lowest levels of education and the highest rate of unemployment compared to other groups. Females, pts aged &gt; 50 yrs., unemployed vs employed, and people with lower educational levels presented the lowest CD4 count at ART initiation compared to other groups. The overall median time to ART initiation was 0.6 years (yrs) (IQR 0.1-3.7), with a significant decrease over time [2002-2006 = 3.3 yrs. (0.2-9.4); 2007-2011 = 1.0 yrs. (0.1-3.9); 2012-2016 = 0.2 yrs. (0.1-2.1), p &lt; 0.001]. By multivariate analysis, females (p &lt; 0.01) and PWID (p &lt; 0.001), presented a longer time to ART initiation, while older people (p &lt; 0.001), people with higher educational levels (p &lt; 0.001), unemployed (p = 0.02) and students (p &lt; 0.001) were more likely to initiate ART. Moreover, PWID, unemployed vs stable employed, and pts. with lower educational levels showed a lower 1-year probability of achieving HIV-RNA suppression, while females, older patients, men who have sex with men (MSM), unemployed had higher 1-year risk of first-line ART discontinuation. Conclusions: Despite median time to ART start decreased from 2002 to 2016, socio-demographic factors still contribute to disparities in ART initiation, outcome and durability

Machine learning in predicting respiratory failure in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia - challenges, strengths, and opportunities in a global health emergency.

Aims- The aim of this study was to estimate a 48 hour prediction of moderate to severe respiratory failure, requiring mechanical ventilation, in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods- This was an observational study that comprised consecutive patients with COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to hospital from 21 February to 6 April 2020. The patients\u2019 medical history, demographic, epidemiologic and clinical data were collected in an electronic patient chart. The dataset was used to train predictive models using an established machine learning framework leveraging a hybrid approach where clinical expertise is applied alongside a data-driven analysis. The study outcome was the onset of moderate to severe respiratory failure defined as PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio &lt;150 mmHg in at least one of two consecutive arterial blood gas analyses in the following 48 hours. Shapley Additive exPlanations values were used to quantify the positive or negative impact of each variable included in each model on the predicted outcome. Results- A total of 198 patients contributed to generate 1068 usable observations which allowed to build 3 predictive models based respectively on 31-variables signs and symptoms, 39-variables laboratory biomarkers and 91-variables as a composition of the two. A fourth \u201cboosted mixed model\u201d included 20 variables was selected from the model 3, achieved the best predictive performance (AUC=0.84) without worsening the FN rate. Its clinical performance was applied in a narrative case report as an example. Conclusion- This study developed a machine model with 84% prediction accuracy, which is able to assist clinicians in decision making process and contribute to develop new analytics to improve care at high technology readiness levels

Effects of cytokine blocking agents on hospital mortality in patients admitted to ICU with acute respiratory distress syndrome by SARS-CoV-2 infection: Retrospective cohort study

Background: The use of cytokine-blocking agents has been proposed to modulate the inflammatory response in patients with COVID-19. Tocilizumab and anakinra were included in the local protocol as an optional treatment in critically ill patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) by SARS-CoV-2 infection. This cohort study evaluated the effects of therapy with cytokine blocking agents on in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients requiring mechanical ventilation and admitted to intensive care unit. Methods: The association between therapy with tocilizumab or anakinra and in-hospital mortality was assessed in consecutive adult COVID-19 patients admitted to our ICU with moderate to severe ARDS. The association was evaluated by comparing patients who received to those who did not receive tocilizumab or anakinra and by using different multivariable Cox models adjusted for variables related to poor outcome, for the propensity to be treated with tocilizumab or anakinra and after patient matching. Results: Sixty-six patients who received immunotherapy (49 tocilizumab, 17 anakinra) and 28 patients who did not receive immunotherapy were included. The in-hospital crude mortality was 30,3% in treated patients and 50% in non-treated (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.56-1.05, p=0.069). The adjusted Cox model showed an association between therapy with immunotherapy and in-hospital mortality (HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.19-0.83, p=0.015). This protective effect was further confirmed in the analysis adjusted for propensity score, in the propensity-matched cohort and in the cohort of patients with invasive mechanical ventilation within 2 hours after ICU admission. Conclusions: Although important limitations, our study showed that cytokine-blocking agents seem to be safe and to improve survival in COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU with ARDS and the need for mechanical ventilation

Incidence and factors associated with the risk of sexually transmitted diseases in HIV-infected people seen for care in Italy: data from the Icona Foundation cohort.

Objectives: The aims of this study were to identify temporal trends in the incidence of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in a cohort of HIV-infected people and to evaluate factors associated with the risk of a new STD diagnosis. Methods: All HIV-infected patients in the Icona Foundation Study cohort enrolled after 1998 were included in this study. STD incidence rates (IRs) were calculated and stratified by calendar period. Predictors of STDs were identified using a Poisson regression model with sandwich estimates for standard errors. Results: Data for 9168 participants were analysed [median age 37.3 (range 18-81) years; 74% male; 30% men who have sex with men (MSM)]. Over 46 736 person-years of follow-up (PYFU), 996 episodes of STDs were observed [crude IR 21.3/1000 PYFU; 95% confidence interval (CI) 20.0-22.6/1000 PYFU]. In multivariable Poisson regression analysis, MSM [rate ratio (RR) 3.03; 95% CI 2.52-3.64 versus heterosexuals], calendar period (RR 1.67; 95% CI 1.42-1.97 for 2008-2012 versus 1998-2002), HIV RNA &gt; 50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL (RR 1.44; 95% CI 1.19-1.74 versus HIV RNA ≤ 50 copies/mL) and a current CD4 count &lt; 100 cells/μL (RR 4.66; 95% CI 3.69-5.89; P &lt; 0.001 versus CD4 count &gt; 500 cells/μL) were associated with an increased risk of STDs. In contrast, older age (RR 0.82 per 10 years older; 95% CI 0.77-0.89) and being currently on ART (RR 0.38; 95% CI 0.33-0.45) compared with being ART-naïve or on a treatment interruption were associated with a lower risk of developing STDs. Conclusions: An increase in the incidence of STDs was observed in more recent years. Interventions to prevent STDs and potential spread of HIV should target the younger population, MSM and people currently not receiving ART

Prognostic Value of the Fibrosis-4 Index in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type-1 Infected Patients Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy with or without Hepatitis C Virus

Objective: To evaluate the Fibrosis (FIB)-4 index as a predictor of major liver-related events (LRE) and liver-related death (LRD) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type-1 patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Design: Retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort study. Setting: Italian HIV care centers participating to the ICONA Foundation cohort. Participants: Treatment-naive patients enrolled in ICONA were selected who: initiated cART, had hepatitis C virus (HCV) serology results, were HBsAg negative, had an available FIB-4 index at cART start and during follow up. Methods: Cox regression models were used to determine the association of FIB4 with the risk of major LRE (gastrointestinal bleeding, ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, hepato-renal syndrome or hepatocellular carcinoma) or LRD. Results: Three-thousand four-hundred seventy-five patients were enrolled: 73.3% were males, 27.2% HCV seropositive. At baseline (time of cART initiation) their median age was 39 years, had a median CD4+ T cell count of 260 cells/uL, and median HIV RNA 4.9 log copies/ mL, 65.9% had a FIB-4 &lt; 1.45, 26.4% 1.45-3.25 and 7.7% &gt; 3.25. Over a follow up of 18,662 person-years, 41 events were observed: 25 major LRE and 16 LRD (incidence rate, IR, 2.2 per 1,000 PYFU [95% confidence interval, CI 1.6-3.0]). IR was higher in HCV seropositives as compared to negatives (5.9 vs 0.5 per 1,000 PYFU). Higher baseline FIB-4 category as compared to &lt; 1.45 (FIB-4 1.45-3.25: HR 3.55, 95% CI 1.09-11.58; FIB-4 &gt; 3.25: HR 4.25, 1.21-14.92) and time-updated FIB-4 (FIB-4 1.45-3.25: HR 3.40, 1.02-11.40; FIB- 4&gt; 3.25: HR 21.24, 6.75-66.84) were independently predictive of major LRE/LRD, after adjusting for HIV- and HCV-related variables, alcohol consumption and type of cART. Conclusions: The FIB-4 index at cART initiation, and its modification over time are risk factors for major LRE or LRD, independently of infection with HCV and could be used to monitor patients on cART

Evaluation of the prognostic value of impaired renal function on clinical progression in a large cohort of HIV-infected people seen for care in Italy

Whilst renal dysfunction, especially mild impairment (60 die;ve (Icona) Foundation Study collected between January 2000 and February 2014 with at least two creatinine values available. eGFR (CKD-epi) and renal dysfunction defined using a priori cut-offs of 60 (severely impaired) and 90 ml/min/1.73m2 (mildly impaired). Characteristics of patients were described after stratification in these groups and compared using chi-square test (categorical variables) or Kruskal Wallis test comparing median values. Follow-up accrued from baseline up to the date of the CCVD or AIDS related events or death or last available visit. Kaplan Meier curves were used to estimate the cumulative probability of occurrence of the events over time. Adjusted analysis was performed using a proportional hazards Cox regression model. We included 7,385 patients, observed for a median follow-up of 43 months (interquartile range [IQR]: 21-93 months). Over this time, 130 cerebro-cardiovascular events (including 11 deaths due to CCVD) and 311 AIDS-related events (including 45 deaths) were observed. The rate of CCVD events among patients with eGFR &gt;90, 60-89, &lt;60 ml/min, was 2.91 (95% CI 2.30-3.67), 4.63 (95% CI 3.51-6.11) and 11.9 (95% CI 6.19-22.85) per 1,000 PYFU respectively, with an unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 4.14 (95%CI 2.07-8.29) for patients with eGFR &lt;60 ml/min and 1.58 (95%CI 1.10-2.27) for eGFR 60-89 compared to those with eGFR ≥90. Of note, these estimates are adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors (e.g. smoking, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia). Incidence of AIDS-related events was 9.51 (95%CI 8.35-10.83), 6.04 (95%CI 4.74-7.71) and 25.0 (95% CI 15.96-39.22) per 1,000 PYFU, among patients with eGFR &gt;90, 60-89, &lt;60 ml/min, respectively, with an unadjusted HR of 2.49 (95%CI 1.56-3.97) for patients with eGFR &lt;60 ml/min and 0.68 (95%CI 0.52-0.90) for eGFR 60-89. The risk of AIDS events was significantly lower in mild renal dysfunction group even after adjustment for HIV-related characteristics. Our data confirm that impaired renal function is an important risk marker for CCVD events in the HIV-population; importantly, even those with mild renal impairment (90&lt;60)&gt

Is physician assessment of alcohol consumption useful in predicting risk of severe liver disease among people with HIV and HIV/HCV co-infection?

Background: Alcohol consumption is a known risk factor for liver disease in HIV-infected populations. Therefore, knowledge of alcohol consumption behaviour and risk of disease progression associated with hazardous drinking are important in the overall management of HIV disease. We aimed at assessing the usefulness of routine data collected on alcohol consumption in predicting risk of severe liver disease (SLD) among people living with HIV (PLWHIV) with or without hepatitis C infection seen for routine clinical care in Italy. Methods: We included PLWHIV from two observational cohorts in Italy (ICONA and HepaICONA). Alcohol consumption was assessed by physician interview and categorized according to the National Institute for Food and Nutrition Italian guidelines into four categories: abstainer; moderate; hazardous and unknown. SLD was defined as presence of FIB4 &gt; 3.25 or a clinical diagnosis of liver disease or liver-related death. Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between level of alcohol consumption at baseline and risk of SLD. Results: Among 9542 included PLWHIV the distribution of alcohol consumption categories was: abstainers 3422 (36%), moderate drinkers 2279 (23%), hazardous drinkers 637 (7%) and unknown 3204 (34%). Compared to moderate drinkers, hazardous drinking was associated with higher risk of SLD (adjusted hazard ratio, aHR = 1.45; 95% CI: 1.03-2.03). After additionally controlling for mode of HIV transmission, HCV infection and smoking, the association was attenuated (aHR = 1.32; 95% CI: 0.94-1.85). There was no evidence that the association was stronger when restricting to the HIV/HCV co-infected population. Conclusions: Using a brief physician interview, we found evidence for an association between hazardous alcohol consumption and subsequent risk of SLD among PLWHIV, but this was not independent of HIV mode of transmission, HCV-infection and smoking. More efforts should be made to improve quality and validity of data on alcohol consumption in cohorts of HIV/HCV-infected individuals

Increased risk of virologic failure to the first antiretroviral regimen in HIV-infected migrants compared to natives: Data from the ICONA cohort

Migrant and Italian HIV-infected patients (n = 5773) enrolled in the ICONA cohort in 2004-2014 were compared for disparities in access to an initial antiretroviral regimen and/or risk of virologic failure (VF), and determinants of failure were evaluated. Variables associated with initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) were analysed. Primary endpoint was time to failure after at least 6 months of ART and was defined as: VF, first of two consecutive virus loads (VL) &gt;200 copies/mL; treatment discontinuation (TD) for any reason; and treatment failure as confirmed VL &gt;200 copies/mL or TD. A Poisson multivariable analysis was performed to control for confounders. Migrants presented significantly lower CD4 counts and more frequent AIDS events at baseline. When adjusting for baseline confounders, migrants presented a lower likelihood to begin ART (odds ratio 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67-0.95, p 0.012). After initiating ART, the incidence VF rate was 6.4 per 100 person-years (95% CI 4.8-8.5) in migrants and 2.7 in natives (95% CI 2.2-3.3). Multivariable analysis confirmed that migrants had a higher risk of VF (incidence rate ratio 1.90, 95% CI 1.25-2.91, p 0.003) and treatment failure (incidence rate ratio 1.16, 95% CI 1.01-1.33, p 0.031), with no differences for TD. Among migrants, variables associated with VF were age, unemployment and use of a boosted protease inhibitor-based regimen versus nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. Despite the use of more potent and safer drugs in the last 10 years, and even in a universal health care setting, migrants living with HIV still present barriers to initiating ART and an increased risk of VF compared to natives