Optimism as a Prior Belief about the Probability of Future Reward

Optimists hold positive a priori beliefs about the future. In Bayesian statistical theory, a priori beliefs can be overcome by experience. However, optimistic beliefs can at times appear surprisingly resistant to evidence, suggesting that optimism might also influence how new information is selected and learned. Here, we use a novel Pavlovian conditioning task, embedded in a normative framework, to directly assess how trait optimism, as classically measured using self-report questionnaires, influences choices between visual targets, by learning about their association with reward progresses. We find that trait optimism relates to an a priori belief about the likelihood of rewards, but not losses, in our task. Critically, this positive belief behaves like a probabilistic prior, i.e. its influence reduces with increasing experience. Contrary to findings in the literature related to unrealistic optimism and self-beliefs, it does not appear to influence the iterative learning process directly

We are safe but you are not: exploring comparative optimism and cyber bullying

Individuals tend to believe that when comparing themselves to others they are less vulnerable to potential risks. This is referred to as comparative optimism, whereby individuals believe that they are immune from negative experiences that can happen to others. The current study examined comparative optimism judgements for the likelihood of experiencing cyber bullying. Comparative optimism was examined in three age groups: older adolescents (n = 130, 57% female, Mage = 16.82, SDage = .38), emerging adults (n = 355, 92% female, Mage = 19.26, SDage = .27), and adults (n = 147, 66% female, Mage = 33.24, SDage = 9.77). All participants reported the likelihood that they, their friends, other students [forum users] younger than them, other students [forum users] their age, people older than them, and strangers would experience cyber bullying. Participants displayed an optimistic bias, reporting that they were less likely to experience cyber bullying than others. However, the relative risk of experiencing cyber bullying varied according to comparator group. Comparator groups that were socially close to the participants (e.g. friends) were generally rated as less likely to experience cyber bullying than socially distant comparator groups (e.g. strangers). Also, comparator groups that were younger than the participants were consistently judged to be most at risk of experiencing cyber bullying. Together, the findings have implications for the design of anti-cyber bullying interventions and campaigns to promote digital safety