Laboratory earthquake forecasting. A machine learning competition

Earthquake prediction, the long-sought holy grail of earthquake science, continues to confound Earth scientists. Could we make advances by crowdsourcing, drawing from the vast knowledge and creativity of the machine learning (ML) community? We used Google’s ML competition platform, Kaggle, to engage the worldwide ML community with a competition to develop and improve data analysis approaches on a forecasting problem that uses laboratory earthquake data. The competitors were tasked with predicting the time remaining before the next earthquake of successive laboratory quake events, based on only a small portion of the laboratory seismic data. The more than 4,500 participating teams created and shared more than 400 computer programs in openly accessible notebooks. Complementing the now well-known features of seismic data that map to fault criticality in the laboratory, the winning teams employed unexpected strategies based on rescaling failure times as a fraction of the seismic cycle and comparing input distribution of training and testing data. In addition to yielding scientific insights into fault processes in the laboratory and their relation with the evolution of the statistical properties of the associated seismic data, the competition serves as a pedagogical tool for teaching ML in geophysics. The approach may provide a model for other competitions in geosciences or other domains of study to help engage the ML community on problems of significance

Analysis of compound heterozygotes reveals that the mouse floxed Pax6 tm1Ued allele produces abnormal eye phenotypes

Analysis of abnormal phenotypes produced by different types of mutations has been crucial for our understanding of gene function. Some floxed alleles that retain a neomycin-resistance selection cassette (neo cassette) are not equivalent to wild-type alleles and provide useful experimental resources. Pax6 is an important developmental gene and the aim of this study was to determine whether the floxed Pax6(tm1Ued) (Pax6(fl)) allele, which has a retained neo cassette, produced any abnormal eye phenotypes that would imply that it differs from the wild-type allele. Homozygous Pax6(fl/fl) and heterozygous Pax6(fl/+) mice had no overt qualitative eye abnormalities but morphometric analysis showed that Pax6(fl/fl) corneas tended be thicker and smaller in diameter. To aid identification of weak effects, we produced compound heterozygotes with the Pax6(Sey-Neu) (Pax6(−)) null allele. Pax6(fl/−) compound heterozygotes had more severe eye abnormalities than Pax6(+/−) heterozygotes, implying that Pax6(fl) differs from the wild-type Pax6(+) allele. Immunohistochemistry showed that the Pax6(fl/−) corneal epithelium was positive for keratin 19 and negative for keratin 12, indicating that it was abnormally differentiated. This Pax6(fl) allele provides a useful addition to the existing Pax6 allelic series and this study demonstrates the utility of using compound heterozygotes with null alleles to unmask cryptic effects of floxed alleles. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11248-016-9962-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Large-Scale Phenotyping of an Accurate Genetic Mouse Model of JNCL Identifies Novel Early Pathology Outside the Central Nervous System

Cln3Δex7/8 mice harbor the most common genetic defect causing juvenile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis (JNCL), an autosomal recessive disease involving seizures, visual, motor and cognitive decline, and premature death. Here, to more thoroughly investigate the manifestations of the common JNCL mutation, we performed a broad phenotyping study of Cln3Δex7/8 mice. Homozygous Cln3Δex7/8 mice, congenic on a C57BL/6N background, displayed subtle deficits in sensory and motor tasks at 10–14 weeks of age. Homozygous Cln3Δex7/8 mice also displayed electroretinographic changes reflecting cone function deficits past 5 months of age and a progressive decline of retinal post-receptoral function. Metabolic analysis revealed increases in rectal body temperature and minimum oxygen consumption in 12–13 week old homozygous Cln3Δex7/8mice, which were also seen to a lesser extent in heterozygous Cln3Δex7/8 mice. Heart weight was slightly increased at 20 weeks of age, but no significant differences were observed in cardiac function in young adults. In a comprehensive blood analysis at 15–16 weeks of age, serum ferritin concentrations, mean corpuscular volume of red blood cells (MCV), and reticulocyte counts were reproducibly increased in homozygous Cln3Δex7/8 mice, and male homozygotes had a relative T-cell deficiency, suggesting alterations in hematopoiesis. Finally, consistent with findings in JNCL patients, vacuolated peripheral blood lymphocytes were observed in homozygous Cln3Δex7/8 neonates, and to a greater extent in older animals. Early onset, severe vacuolation in clear cells of the epididymis of male homozygous Cln3Δex7/8 mice was also observed. These data highlight additional organ systems in which to study CLN3 function, and early phenotypes have been established in homozygous Cln3Δex7/8 mice that merit further study for JNCL biomarker development

Phenotypic expansion of the BPTF-related neurodevelopmental disorder with dysmorphic facies and distal limb anomalies

Neurodevelopmental disorder with dysmorphic facies and distal limb anomalies (NEDDFL), defined primarily by developmental delay/intellectual disability, speech delay, postnatal microcephaly, and dysmorphic features, is a syndrome resulting from heterozygous variants in the dosage-sensitive bromodomain PHD finger chromatin remodeler transcription factor BPTF gene. To date, only 11 individuals with NEDDFL due to de novo BPTF variants have been described. To expand the NEDDFL phenotypic spectrum, we describe the clinical features in 25 novel individuals with 20 distinct, clinically relevant variants in BPTF, including four individuals with inherited changes in BPTF. In addition to the previously described features, individuals in this cohort exhibited mild brain abnormalities, seizures, scoliosis, and a variety of ophthalmologic complications. These results further support the broad and multi-faceted complications due to haploinsufficiency of BPTF.Genetics of disease, diagnosis and treatmen

Nat Genet

The function of the majority of genes in the mouse and human genomes remains unknown. The mouse embryonic stem cell knockout resource provides a basis for the characterization of relationships between genes and phenotypes. The EUMODIC consortium developed and validated robust methodologies for the broad-based phenotyping of knockouts through a pipeline comprising 20 disease-oriented platforms. We developed new statistical methods for pipeline design and data analysis aimed at detecting reproducible phenotypes with high power. We acquired phenotype data from 449 mutant alleles, representing 320 unique genes, of which half had no previous functional annotation. We captured data from over 27,000 mice, finding that 83% of the mutant lines are phenodeviant, with 65% demonstrating pleiotropy. Surprisingly, we found significant differences in phenotype annotation according to zygosity. New phenotypes were uncovered for many genes with previously unknown function, providing a powerful basis for hypothesis generation and further investigation in diverse systems.Comment in : Genetic differential calculus. [Nat Genet. 2015] Comment in : Scaling up phenotyping studies. [Nat Biotechnol. 2015

The Rabbitfish Siganus virgatus as Key Macroalgae Browser in Coral Reefs of the Gulf of Thailand

Coral reef resilience is greatly influenced by herbivory. There is a need to identify key fish species fulfilling this critical function in biogeographically distinct regions. This experimental in situ study investigated fish herbivory in coral reefs of the lower Gulf of Thailand characterized by a considerably low herbivorous fish biomass and diversity, but high live coral and low macroalgal cover. This provided an intriguing situation for macroalgal browsing research. Visual census techniques assessed the abundance of local herbivorous fish species, and filmed single-choice assays using the macroalga Turbinaria evaluated mass-standardized bites (ms-bites) and biomass removal. Multiple-choice assays offering four locally abundant macroalgae identified specific biomass removal and ms-bites to uncover selection and avoidance patterns of observed fish species. The rabbitfish Siganusvirgatus constituted only 39% of herbivore biomass but accounted for 90% of ms-bites. In multiple-choice assays, fishes took most (61%) bites on Sargassum, followed by Padina (28%) and Turbinaria (11%), while Lobophora was avoided. S. virgatus exhibited the most generalized browsing pattern of all species observed. Coinciding with recent studies, our findings suggest that S. virgatus plays a key functional role in reefs characterized by low diversity of herbivores and low functional redundancy

Novel allele of crybb2 in the mouse and its expression in the brain.

O377 was identified as a new dominant cataract mutation in mice after radiation experiments. The purpose of this study was to genetically characterize the mutation and to analyze its biological consequences. METHODS: Linkage analysis of the O377 mouse mutant was performed; candidate genes including Crybb2 were sequenced. The authors analyzed eyes and brains of the mutants by histology and the expression domains of Crybb2 by in situ hybridization and immunohistochemistry. RNA was isolated from whole brains of heterozygous and homozygous O377 mutants, and differential expression arrays were performed. All studies were compared with age- and strain-matched wild-type mice. RESULTS: The mutation was mapped to chromosome 5 and characterized as an A-->T substitution at the end of intron 5 of the Crybb2 gene. It led to alternative splicing with a 57-bp insertion in the mRNA and to 19 additional amino acids in the protein. In the brain, betaB2-crystallin was expressed in the cerebellum, olfactory bulb, cerebral cortex, and hippocampus. The only morphologic difference in the brain is the increased number of Purkinje cells in the cerebellum of homozygous strain-matched mutants. Differential expression analysis revealed the upregulation of calpain-3 in the brain of homozygous mutants, which was confirmed by quantitative real-time PCR. CONCLUSIONS: These results confirm the third allele of Crybb2 in the mouse that also affected exon 6 and the fourth Greek key motif. Moreover, expression analysis of Crybb2 identified for the first time distinct regions of expression in the brain, and the differential expression analysis points to the participation of Ca(2+) in the corresponding pathologic processes