A multi-label, dual-output deep neural network for automated bug triaging

Bug tracking enables the monitoring and resolution of issues and bugs within organizations. Bug triaging, or assigning bugs to the owner(s) who will resolve them, is a critical component of this process because there are many incorrect assignments that waste developer time and reduce bug resolution throughput. In this work, we explore the use of a novel two-output deep neural network architecture (Dual DNN) for triaging a bug to both an individual team and developer, simultaneously. Dual DNN leverages this simultaneous prediction by exploiting its own guess of the team classes to aid in developer assignment. A multi-label classification approach is used for each of the two outputs to learn from all interim owners, not just the last one who closed the bug. We make use of a heuristic combination of the interim owners (owner-importance-weighted labeling) which is converted into a probability mass function (pmf). We employ a two-stage learning scheme, whereby the team portion of the model is trained first and then held static to train the team--developer and bug--developer relationships. The scheme employed to encode the team--developer relationships is based on an organizational chart (org chart), which renders the model robust to organizational changes as it can adapt to role changes within an organization. There is an observed average lift (with respect to both team and developer assignment) of 13%-points in 11-fold incremental-learning cross-validation (IL-CV) accuracy for Dual DNN utilizing owner-weighted labels compared with the traditional multi-class classification approach. Furthermore, Dual DNN with owner-weighted labels achieves average 11-fold IL-CV accuracies of 76% (team assignment) and 55% (developer assignment), outperforming reference models by 14%- and 25%-points, respectively, on a proprietary dataset with 236,865 entries.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, 9 table

Reliable estimation of prediction uncertainty for physico-chemical property models

The predictions of parameteric property models and their uncertainties are sensitive to systematic errors such as inconsistent reference data, parametric model assumptions, or inadequate computational methods. Here, we discuss the calibration of property models in the light of bootstrapping, a sampling method akin to Bayesian inference that can be employed for identifying systematic errors and for reliable estimation of the prediction uncertainty. We apply bootstrapping to assess a linear property model linking the 57Fe Moessbauer isomer shift to the contact electron density at the iron nucleus for a diverse set of 44 molecular iron compounds. The contact electron density is calculated with twelve density functionals across Jacob's ladder (PWLDA, BP86, BLYP, PW91, PBE, M06-L, TPSS, B3LYP, B3PW91, PBE0, M06, TPSSh). We provide systematic-error diagnostics and reliable, locally resolved uncertainties for isomer-shift predictions. Pure and hybrid density functionals yield average prediction uncertainties of 0.06-0.08 mm/s and 0.04-0.05 mm/s, respectively, the latter being close to the average experimental uncertainty of 0.02 mm/s. Furthermore, we show that both model parameters and prediction uncertainty depend significantly on the composition and number of reference data points. Accordingly, we suggest that rankings of density functionals based on performance measures (e.g., the coefficient of correlation, r2, or the root-mean-square error, RMSE) should not be inferred from a single data set. This study presents the first statistically rigorous calibration analysis for theoretical Moessbauer spectroscopy, which is of general applicability for physico-chemical property models and not restricted to isomer-shift predictions. We provide the statistically meaningful reference data set MIS39 and a new calibration of the isomer shift based on the PBE0 functional.Comment: 49 pages, 9 figures, 7 table

Quantifying uncertainty in simulations of the West African monsoon with the use of surrogate models

Simulating the West African monsoon (WAM) system using numerical weather and climate models suffers from large uncertainties, which are difficult to assess due to nonlinear interactions between different components of the WAM. Here we present a fundamentally new approach to the problem by approximating the behavior of a numerical model – here the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model – through a statistical surrogate model based on universal kriging, a general form of Gaussian process regression, which allows for a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis. The main steps of our analysis are as follows: (i) identify the most important uncertain model parameters and their probability density functions, for which we employ a new strategy dealing with non-uniformity in the kriging process. (ii) Define quantities of interest (QoIs) that represent general meteorological fields, such as temperature, pressure, cloud cover and precipitation, as well as the prominent WAM features, namely the tropical easterly jet, African easterly jet, Saharan heat low (SHL) and intertropical discontinuity. (iii) Apply a sampling strategy with regard to the kriging method to identify model parameter combinations which are used for numerical modeling experiments. (iv) Conduct ICON model runs for identified model parameter combinations over a nested limited-area domain from 28° W to 34° E and from 10° S to 34° N. The simulations are run for August in 4 different years (2016 to 2019) to capture the peak northward penetration of rainfall into West Africa, and QoIs are computed based on the mean response over the whole month in all years. (v) Quantify sensitivity of QoIs to uncertain model parameters in an integrated and a local analysis. The results show that simple isolated relationships between single model parameters and WAM QoIs rarely exist. Changing individual parameters affects multiple QoIs simultaneously, reflecting the physical links between them and the complexity of the WAM system. The entrainment rate in the convection scheme and the terminal fall velocity of ice particles show the greatest effects on the QoIs. Larger values of these two parameters reduce cloud cover and precipitation and intensify the SHL. The entrainment rate primarily affects 2 m temperature and 2 m dew point temperature and causes latitudinal shifts, whereas the terminal fall velocity of ice mostly affects cloud cover. Furthermore, the parameter that controls the evaporative soil surface has a major effect on 2 m temperature, 2 m dew point temperature and cloud cover. The results highlight the usefulness of surrogate models for the analysis of model uncertainty and open up new opportunities to better constrain model parameters through a comparison of the model output with selected observations.</p

Influence of the second stage of labor on maternal and neonatal outcomes in vaginal births after caesarean section: a multicenter study in Germany

Background: The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) introduced a new standard of care in 2014, extending the duration of the second stage of labor in order to reduce caesarean delivery (CD) rates and its severe complications. The aim of the present study is to evaluate success rates of trial of labor after caesarean section (TOLAC), as well as maternal and neonatal outcomes after the establishment of the recent guidelines. Methods: A retrospective study was performed at two large departments in Germany from January 2008 to January 2018. Patients undergoing TOLAC were divided into two groups. Group I (958 patients) was constituted before the establishment of the current guidelines, and Group II (588 patients) after the establishment of the guidelines. A subgroup analysis was performed to compare neonatal outcomes after successful TOLAC and operative vaginal delivery with those after failed TOLAC and secondary CD. Results: The success rate of vaginal births after cesarean section (VBAC) fell from 66.4 in Group I to 55.8 in Group II (p < 0.001). The median duration of the second stage of labor was statistically significantly longer in Group II than in Group I (79.3 ± 61.9 vs. 69.3 ± 58.2 min) for patients without previous vaginal birth. The incidence of operative vaginal delivery decreased from Group I to Group II (9.6 vs. 6.8). The incidence of third- and fourth-degree perineal lacerations, blood loss and emergency CD were similar in the two groups. Concerning the neonatal outcome, our groups did not differ significantly in regard of rates of umbilical artery cord pH < 7.1 (p = 0.108), the 5-min Apgar scores below 7 (p = 0.224) and intubation (p = 0.547). However, the transfer rates to the neonatal care unit were significantly higher in Group II than in Group I (p < 0.001). Neonatal outcomes did not differ significantly in the subgroup analysis. Conclusion: Extending the second stage of labor does not necessarily result in more vaginal births after TOLAC. Maternal and neonatal outcomes were similar in both groups. Further studies will be needed to evaluate the role of operative vaginal delivery and the duration of the second stage of labor in TOLAC. © 2021, The Author(s)

Findings from the Peutz-Jeghers Syndrome Registry of Uruguay

Background: Peutz-Jeghers syndrome (PJS) is characterized by intestinal polyposis, mucocutaneous pigmentation and an increased cancer risk, usually caused by mutations of the STK11 gene. This study collected epidemiological, clinical and genetic data from all Uruguayan PJS patients. Methods: Clinical data were obtained from public and private medical centers and updated annually. Sequencing of the STK11 gene in one member of each family was performed. Results and discussion: 25 cases in 11 unrelated families were registered (15 males, 10 females). The average age of diagnosis and death was 18 and 41 years respectively. All patients had characteristic PJS pigmentation and gastrointestinal polyps. 72% required urgent surgery due to intestinal obstruction. 3 families had multiple cases of seizure disorder, representing 20% of cases. 28% developed cancer and two patients had more than one cancer. An STK11 mutation was found in 8 of the 9 families analyzed. A unique M136K missense mutation was noted in one family. Comparing annual live births and PJS birth records from 1970 to 2009 yielded an incidence of 1 in 155,000. Conclusion: The Uruguayan Registry for Peutz-Jeghers patients showed a high chance of emergent surgery, epilepsy, cancer and shortened life expectancy. The M136K missense mutation is a newly reported STK 11 mutation

A dataset of acoustic measurements from soundscapes collected worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic

Political responses to the COVID-19 pandemic led to changes in city soundscapes around the globe. From March to October 2020, a consortium of 261 contributors from 35 countries brought together by the Silent Cities project built a unique soundscape recordings collection to report on local acoustic changes in urban areas. We present this collection here, along with metadata including observational descriptions of the local areas from the contributors, open-source environmental data, open-source confinement levels and calculation of acoustic descriptors. We performed a technical validation of the dataset using statistical models run on a subset of manually annotated soundscapes. Results confirmed the large-scale usability of ecoacoustic indices and automatic sound event recognition in the Silent Cities soundscape collection. We expect this dataset to be useful for research in the multidisciplinary field of environmental sciences

Anthropogenic noise is associated with changes in acoustic but not visual signals in red-winged blackbirds

Some birds in noisy areas produce songs with higher frequency and/or amplitude and altered timing compared to individuals in quiet areas. These changes may function to increase the efficacy of acoustic signals by reducing masking by noise. We collected audio recordings of red-winged blackbirds and measured noise levels. We found that males in noisier places produced songs with fewer syllables and slower repeat rate of elements in some components (rattles). Birds may also improve the efficacy of communication in noise by increasing usage of other signaling modalities. Red-winged blackbirds also perform a visual display in different intensities while singing. We also tested whether this species performs the visual display in different intensities according to current noise levels, and predicted that if the efficacy of songs is impaired in noisy places, males would compensate by performing a more intense visual display. For this, we also collected visual recordings from the same males from which we obtained acoustic recordings. We found no association between acoustic noise and the intensity of the visual display; thus, our results do not support the idea that males are using the visual display as a backup signal to communicate under acoustic noise. We discuss some possible explanations of this negative finding and for the observed noise-related changes in song length and rattle rate in the context of communication under noise

Extension of the line element-less method to dynamic problems

The line element-less method is an efficient approach for the approximate solution of the Laplace or biharmonic equation on a general bidimensional domain.Introducing generalized harmonic polynomials as approximation functions, we extend the line element-less method to the inhomogeneous Helmholtz equation and to the eigenvalue problem for the Helmholtz equation. The obtained approximate solutions are critically discussed and advantages as well as limitations of the approach are pointed out