Bayesian Model Selection with Future 21cm Observations of The Epoch of Reionisation

We apply Bayesian statistics to perform model selection on different reionisation scenarios via the Multinest algorithm. Initially, we recover the results shown by 21CMMC for the parameter estimation of 21cmFAST models. We proceed to test several toy models of the Epoch of Reionisation (EoR) defined in contrasting morphology and scale. We find that LOFAR observations are unlikely to allow model selection even with long integration times. HERA would require 61 dipoles to perform the same analysis in 1080 hours, and becomes comparable to the SKA with 217 dipoles. We find the SKA requires only 324 hours of observation to conclusively distinguish between our models. Once model selection is achievable, an analysis of observational priors is performed finding that neutral fraction checks at specific redshifts add little to no inference. We show the difficulties in model selection at the level of distinguishing fiducial parameters within a model or distinguishing galaxies with a constant versus power law mass-to-light ratio. Finally, we explore the use of the Savage-Dickey density ratio to show the redundancy of the parameter Rmfp within 21cmFAST.Comment: 20 pages, 16 figures - Accepted for publication by MNRA

Senstitivty analysis and optimization of nodal point placement for vibration reduction

A method is developed for sensitivity analysis and optimization of nodal point locations in connection with vibration reduction. A straightforward derivation of the expression for the derivative of nodal locations is given, and the role of the derivative in assessing design trends is demonstrated. An optimization process is developed which uses added lumped masses on the structure as design variables to move the node to a preselected location - for example, where low response amplitude is required or to a point which makes the mode shape nearly orthogonal to the force distribution, thereby minimizing the generalized force. The optimization formulation leads to values for added masses that adjust a nodal location while minimizing the total amount of added mass required to do so. As an example, the node of the second mode of a cantilever box beam is relocated to coincide with the centroid of a prescribed force distribution, thereby reducing the generalized force substantially without adding excessive mass. A comparison with an optimization formulation that directly minimizes the generalized force indicates that nodal placement gives essentially a minimum generalized force when the node is appropriately placed

Safety, the Preface Paradox and Possible Worlds Semantics

This paper contains an argument to the effect that possible worlds semantics renders semantic knowledge impossible, no matter what ontological interpretation is given to possible worlds. The essential contention made is that possible worlds semantic knowledge is unsafe and this is shown by a parallel with the preface paradox

BRAVO economic study of LANDSAT follow-on

The LANDSAT Follow-On satellite consists of two major systems: the instrument module and the Multi-Mission Modular Spacecraft (MMS). The instrument module contains the thematic mapper and the five-band multispectral scanner instruments. The instrument module also includes the solar array, the tracking and data relay satellite (TDRS) antenna, and the wideband data module. The MMS contains the modularized and standardized power, propulsion, attitude control, and command and data handling subsystems. The Shuttle will be supporting the LANDSAT Follow-On system. The LANDSAT Follow-On Project plans two Delta 3910 launches. The first is scheduled for 1981; the second Delta launch will occur as needed to keep one satellite operational on orbit. The second satellite will be ready six months after the first. It could be launched any time after that. Shuttle support of the system could begin in early 1983 but would be scheduled to start after the second Delta launch

Low velocity quantum reflection of Bose-Einstein condensates

We studied quantum reflection of Bose-Einstein condensates at normal incidence on a square array of silicon pillars. For incident velocities of 2.5-26 mm/s observations agreed with theoretical predictions that the Casimir-Polder potential of a reduced density surface would reflect slow atoms with much higher probability. At low velocities (0.5-2.5 mm/s), we observed that the reflection probability saturated around 60% rather than increasing towards unity. We present a simple model which explains this reduced reflectivity as resulting from the combined effects of the Casimir-Polder plus mean field potential and predicts the observed saturation. Furthermore, at low incident velocities, the reflected condensates show collective excitations.Comment: 4 figure

Global 21cm signal experiments: a designer's guide

[Abridged] The spatially averaged global spectrum of the redshifted 21cm line has generated much experimental interest, for it is potentially a direct probe of the Epoch of Reionization and the Dark Ages. Since the cosmological signal here has a purely spectral signature, most proposed experiments have little angular sensitivity. This is worrisome because with only spectra, the global 21cm signal can be difficult to distinguish from foregrounds such as Galactic synchrotron radiation, as both are spectrally smooth and the latter is orders of magnitude brighter. We establish a mathematical framework for global signal data analysis in a way that removes foregrounds optimally, complementing spectra with angular information. We explore various experimental design trade-offs, and find that 1) with spectral-only methods, it is impossible to mitigate errors that arise from uncertainties in foreground modeling; 2) foreground contamination can be significantly reduced for experiments with fine angular resolution; 3) most of the statistical significance in a positive detection during the Dark Ages comes from a characteristic high-redshift trough in the 21cm brightness temperature; and 4) Measurement errors decrease more rapidly with integration time for instruments with fine angular resolution. We show that if observations and algorithms are optimized based on these findings, an instrument with a 5 degree beam can achieve highly significant detections (greater than 5-sigma) of even extended (high Delta-z) reionization scenarios after integrating for 500 hrs. This is in contrast to instruments without angular resolution, which cannot detect gradual reionization. Abrupt ionization histories can be detected at the level of 10-100's of sigma. The expected errors are also low during the Dark Ages, with a 25-sigma detection of the expected cosmological signal after only 100 hrs of integration.Comment: 34 pages, 30 figures. Replaced (v2) to match accepted PRD version (minor pedagogical additions to text; methods, results, and conclusions unchanged). Fixed two typos (v3); text, results, conclusions etc. completely unchange

Optimized Coplanar Waveguide Resonators for a Superconductor-Atom Interface

We describe the design and characterization of superconducting coplanar waveguide cavities tailored to facilitate strong coupling between superconducting quantum circuits and single trapped Rydberg atoms. For initial superconductor-atom experiments at 4.2 K, we show that resonator quality factors above $10^4$ can be readily achieved. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the incorporation of thick-film copper electrodes at a voltage antinode of the resonator provides a route to enhance the zero-point electric fields of the resonator in a trapping region that is 40 $\mu$m above the chip surface, thereby minimizing chip heating from scattered trap light. The combination of high resonator quality factor and strong electric dipole coupling between the resonator and the atom should make it possible to achieve the strong coupling limit of cavity quantum electrodynamics with this system.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Coreless vortex formation in a spinor Bose-Einstein condensate

Coreless vortices were phase-imprinted in a spinor Bose-Einstein condensate. The three-component order parameter of F=1 sodium condensates held in a Ioffe-Pritchard magnetic trap was manipulated by adiabatically reducing the magnetic bias field along the trap axis to zero. This distributed the condensate population across its three spin states and created a spin texture. Each spin state acquired a different phase winding which caused the spin components to separate radially.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figure

Geodetic, teleseismic, and strong motion constraints on slip from recent southern Peru subduction zone earthquakes

We use seismic and geodetic data both jointly and separately to constrain coseismic slip from the 12 November 1996 M_w 7.7 and 23 June 2001 M_w 8.5 southern Peru subduction zone earthquakes, as well as two large aftershocks following the 2001 earthquake on 26 June and 7 July 2001. We use all available data in our inversions: GPS, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) from the ERS-1, ERS-2, JERS, and RADARSAT-1 satellites, and seismic data from teleseismic and strong motion stations. Our two-dimensional slip models derived from only teleseismic body waves from South American subduction zone earthquakes with M_w > 7.5 do not reliably predict available geodetic data. In particular, we find significant differences in the distribution of slip for the 2001 earthquake from models that use only seismic (teleseismic and two strong motion stations) or geodetic (InSAR and GPS) data. The differences might be related to postseismic deformation or, more likely, the different sensitivities of the teleseismic and geodetic data to coseismic rupture properties. The earthquakes studied here follow the pattern of earthquake directivity along the coast of western South America, north of 5°S, earthquakes rupture to the north; south of about 12°S, directivity is southerly; and in between, earthquakes are bilateral. The predicted deformation at the Arequipa GPS station from the seismic-only slip model for the 7 July 2001 aftershock is not consistent with significant preseismic motion