Test your surrogate data before you test for nonlinearity

The schemes for the generation of surrogate data in order to test the null hypothesis of linear stochastic process undergoing nonlinear static transform are investigated as to their consistency in representing the null hypothesis. In particular, we pinpoint some important caveats of the prominent algorithm of amplitude adjusted Fourier transform surrogates (AAFT) and compare it to the iterated AAFT (IAAFT), which is more consistent in representing the null hypothesis. It turns out that in many applications with real data the inferences of nonlinearity after marginal rejection of the null hypothesis were premature and have to be re-investigated taken into account the inaccuracies in the AAFT algorithm, mainly concerning the mismatching of the linear correlations. In order to deal with such inaccuracies we propose the use of linear together with nonlinear polynomials as discriminating statistics. The application of this setup to some well-known real data sets cautions against the use of the AAFT algorithm.Comment: 14 pages, 15 figures, submitted to Physical Review

Measuring Information Transfer

An information theoretic measure is derived that quantifies the statistical coherence between systems evolving in time. The standard time delayed mutual information fails to distinguish information that is actually exchanged from shared information due to common history and input signals. In our new approach, these influences are excluded by appropriate conditioning of transition probabilities. The resulting transfer entropy is able to distinguish driving and responding elements and to detect asymmetry in the coupling of subsystems.Comment: 4 pages, 4 Figures, Revte

Taxing the Informal Economy: The Current State of Knowledge and Agendas for Future Research

This paper reviews the literature on taxation of the informal economy, taking stock of key debates and drawing attention to recent innovations. Conventionally, the debate on whether to tax has frequently focused on the limited revenue potential, high cost of collection, and potentially adverse impact on small firms. Recent arguments have increasingly emphasised the more indirect benefits of informal taxation in relation to economic growth, broader tax compliance, and governance. More research is needed, we argue, into the relevant costs and benefits for all, including quasi-voluntary compliance, political and administrative incentives for reform, and citizen-state bargaining over taxation

Chaos or Noise - Difficulties of a Distinction

In experiments, the dynamical behavior of systems is reflected in time series. Due to the finiteness of the observational data set it is not possible to reconstruct the invariant measure up to arbitrary fine resolution and arbitrary high embedding dimension. These restrictions limit our ability to distinguish between signals generated by different systems, such as regular, chaotic or stochastic ones, when analyzed from a time series point of view. We propose to classify the signal behavior, without referring to any specific model, as stochastic or deterministic on a certain scale of the resolution $\epsilon$, according to the dependence of the $(\epsilon,\tau)$-entropy, $h(\epsilon, \tau)$, and of the finite size Lyapunov exponent, $\lambda(\epsilon)$, on $\epsilon$.Comment: 24 pages RevTeX, 9 eps figures included, two references added, minor corrections, one section has been split in two (submitted to PRE

How Should We Foster the Professional Integrity of Engineers in Japan? A Pride-Based Approach

I discuss the predicament that engineering-ethics education in Japan now faces and propose a solution to this. The predicament is professional motivation, i.e., the problem of how to motivate engineering students to maintain their professional integrity. The special professional responsibilities of engineers are often explained either as an implicit social contract between the profession and society (the “social-contract” view), or as requirements for membership in the profession (the “membership-requirement” view). However, there are empirical data that suggest that such views will not do in Japan, and this is the predicament that confronts us. In this country, the profession of engineering did not exist 10 years ago and is still quite underdeveloped. Engineers in this country do not have privileges, high income, or high social status. Under such conditions, neither the social-contract view nor the membership-requirement view is convincing. As an alternative approach that might work in Japan, I propose a pride-based view. The notion of pride has been analyzed in the virtue-ethics literature, but the full potential of this notion has not been explored. Unlike other kinds of pride, professional pride can directly benefit the general public by motivating engineers to do excellent work even without social rewards, since being proud of themselves is already a reward. My proposal is to foster a particular kind of professional pride associated with the importance of professional services in society, as the motivational basis for professional integrity. There is evidence to suggest that this model works

Inter-species variation in colour perception

Inter-species variation in colour perception poses a serious problem for the view that colours are mind-independent properties. Given that colour perception varies so drastically across species, which species perceives colours as they really are? In this paper, I argue that all do. Specifically, I argue that members of different species perceive properties that are determinates of different, mutually compatible, determinables. This is an instance of a general selectionist strategy for dealing with cases of perceptual variation. According to selectionist views, objects simultaneously instantiate a plurality of colours, all of them genuinely mind-independent, and subjects select from amongst this plurality which colours they perceive. I contrast selectionist views with relationalist views that deny the mind-independence of colour, and consider some general objections to this strategy

Implications of Debunking the "Critical Positivity Ratio" for Humanistic Psychology:Introduction to Special Issue

An extraordinary claim was made by one of the leading researchers within positive psychology, namely, there is a universal-invariant ratio between positive to negative emotions that serves as a unique tipping point between flourishing and languishing in individuals, marriages, organizations, and other human systems across all cultures and times. Known as the "critical positivity ratio," this finding was supposedly derived from the famous Lorenz equation in physics by using the mathematics of nonlinear dynamic systems, and was defined precisely as "2.9013." This exact number was widely touted as a great discovery by many leaders of positive psychology, had tremendous impact in various applied areas of psychology, and, more broadly, and was extensively cited in both the scientific literature and in the global popular media. However, this finding has been demonstrated to be bogus. Since its advent as a relatively new subdiscipline, positive psychology has claimed superiority to its precursor, the subdiscipline of humanistic psychology, in terms of supposedly both using more rigorous science and avoiding popularizing nonsense. The debunking of the critical positivity ratio demonstrates that positive psychology did not live up to these claims, and this has important implications, which are discussed in terms of "romantic scientism" and "voodoo science." In addition, articles in the special issue on the "Implications of Debunking the 'Critical Positivity Ratio' for Humanistic Psychology" are introduced, as they also delve into these concerns

Genome-wide analysis of ivermectin response by Onchocerca volvulus reveals that genetic drift and soft selective sweeps contribute to loss of drug sensitivity

Treatment of onchocerciasis using mass ivermectin administration has reduced morbidity and transmission throughout Africa and Central/South America. Mass drug administration is likely to exert selection pressure on parasites, and phenotypic and genetic changes in several Onchocerca volvulus populations from Cameroon and Ghana-exposed to more than a decade of regular ivermectin treatment-have raised concern that sub-optimal responses to ivermectin's anti-fecundity effect are becoming more frequent and may spread.Pooled next generation sequencing (Pool-seq) was used to characterise genetic diversity within and between 108 adult female worms differing in ivermectin treatment history and response. Genome-wide analyses revealed genetic variation that significantly differentiated good responder (GR) and sub-optimal responder (SOR) parasites. These variants were not randomly distributed but clustered in ~31 quantitative trait loci (QTLs), with little overlap in putative QTL position and gene content between the two countries. Published candidate ivermectin SOR genes were largely absent in these regions; QTLs differentiating GR and SOR worms were enriched for genes in molecular pathways associated with neurotransmission, development, and stress responses. Finally, single worm genotyping demonstrated that geographic isolation and genetic change over time (in the presence of drug exposure) had a significantly greater role in shaping genetic diversity than the evolution of SOR.This study is one of the first genome-wide association analyses in a parasitic nematode, and provides insight into the genomics of ivermectin response and population structure of O. volvulus. We argue that ivermectin response is a polygenically-determined quantitative trait (QT) whereby identical or related molecular pathways but not necessarily individual genes are likely to determine the extent of ivermectin response in different parasite populations. Furthermore, we propose that genetic drift rather than genetic selection of SOR is the underlying driver of population differentiation, which has significant implications for the emergence and potential spread of SOR within and between these parasite populations

Evaluation and Comparison of a Habitat Suitability Model for Postdrift Larval Lake Sturgeon in the St. Clair and Detroit Rivers

We evaluated composition and spatial distribution of riverine nursery habitat for larval Lake Sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens in the Middle Channel of the St. Clair River, Michigan, and Fighting Island Channel of the Detroit River, Ontario, using a habitat suitability model (HSM) and fish collections. Although model outputs indicated similar portions of high‐quality habitat in the Middle Channel (16.9%) and Fighting Island Channel (15.7%), larval abundance and dispersal patterns varied between these systems. Analysis with Akaike’s information criterion indicated that a regression model using sand–silt substrate performed best at predicting the observed water‐volume‐standardized CPUE (number of larvae·h−1·m−3) in the Middle Channel. Of 93 larvae that were collected in the Middle Channel, most were found to cluster at three distinct areas of high‐ and moderate‐quality habitat, which was composed predominately of sand–silt substrate. Lengths of larvae varied by as much as 9 mm, and the degree of yolk sac absorption also varied, indicating that larvae in the Middle Channel remained within the channel after a short drift downstream. Of the 25 larvae that were collected in Fighting Island Channel, distribution was sporadic, and occurrence did not significantly correlate with measured habitat variables. Larvae were relatively homogeneous in size and yolk sac stage, indicating that newly emerged larvae did not utilize available habitat in Fighting Island Channel but instead drifted into the main channel of the Detroit River. Dispersal patterns indicate variability in young Lake Sturgeon ecology, which is dependent on local habitat conditions—most notably, substrate composition. Furthermore, modeled larval–habitat associations found in this study were compared to a similar study on larval Lake Sturgeon from the North Channel of the St. Clair River. Model outputs from all three systems accurately accounted for observed larval dispersal patterns among both rivers. This supports the transferability of an HSM parameterized for Lake Sturgeon from individual river reaches within two large river systems.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146299/1/nafm10217.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146299/2/nafm10217_am.pd