Population aging and endogenous economic growth

This article investigates the consequences of population aging for long-run economic growth perspectives. We introduce age specific heterogeneity of households into a model of research and development (R&D) based technological change. We show that the framework incorporates two standard specifications as special cases: endogenous growth models with scale eects and semi-endogenous growth models without scale effects. The introduction of an age structured population implies that aggregate laws of motion for capital and consumption have to be obtained by integrating over different cohorts. It is analytically shown that these laws of motion depend on the underlying demographic assumptions. Our results are that (i) increases in longevity have positive effects on per capita output growth, (ii) decreases in fertility have negative effects on per capita output growth, (iii) the longevity effect dominates the fertility eect in case of endogenous growth models and (iv) population aging fosters long-run growth in endogenous growth models, while the converse holds true in semiendogenous growth frameworks.population aging, endogenous technological change, longrun economic growth

Population ageing and endogenous economic growth

This article investigates the consequences of population ageing for longrun economic growth perspectives. We introduce population ageing into a generalized model of endogenous technological change incorporating the model of Romer (1990) and Jones (1995) as special cases. We find that increases in longevity have positive effects on steady state per capita output growth in endogenous as well as in semiendogenous growth models. In the latter case, the positive dependence can also be shown for the equilibrium growth rate during transition to the steady state.population ageing, endogenous technological change, long-run economic growth.

Increasing life expectancy and optimal retirement:does population aging necessarily undermine economic prosperity?

In this paper we analyze the eects of changes in longevity and the pace of technological progress on interest rates, savings behaviour and optimal retirement decisions. In so doing we embed the dynamic optimization problem of choosing a life-cycle consumption path and the retirement age into a general equilibrium setting. Thereby we assume that technology evolves exogenously and the production side of the economy can be described by means of a neoclassical production function. Our results show that (i) the aggregate capital to consumption ratio increases and interest rates decrease in response to increases in longevity; (ii) the response of the optimal retirement age to increases in longevity is ambiguous. However, for reasonable parameter values the optimal retirement age increases in longevity; (iii) the aggregate capital to consumption ratio decreases and interest rates increase in response to faster technological progress; (iv) the response of the optimal retirement age to faster technological progress is ambiguous. However, for reasonable parameter values the optimal retirement age increases in the pace of technological improvements.endogenous retirement, life-cycle savings, population aging, technological progress, economic prosperity

Demographic Change in Models of Endogenous Economic Growth. A Survey.

The purpose of this article is to identify the role of population size, population growth and population ageing in models of endogenous economic growth. While in exogenous growth models demographic variables are linked to economic prosperity mainly via the population size, the structure of the workforce, and the capital intensity of workers, endogenous growth models and their successors also allow for interrelationships between demography and technological change. However, most of the existing literature considers only the interrelationships based on population size and its growth rate and does not explicitly account for population ageing. The aim of this paper is (a) to review the role of population size and population growth in the most commonly used economic growth models (with a focus on endogenous economic growth models), (b) discuss models that also allow for population ageing, and (c) sketch out the policy implications of the most commonly used endogenous growth models and compare them to each other.Demographic change, endogenous R&D, economic growth

R&D-based Growth in the Post-modern Era

Conventional R&D-based growth theory suggests that productivity growth is positively correlated with population size or population growth, an implication which is hard to see in the data. Here we integrate R&D-based growth into a unified growth setup with micro-founded fertility and schooling behavior. We then show how a Beckerian child quality-quantity trade-off explains why higher growth of productivity and income per capita are associated with lower population growth. The medium-run prospects for future economic growth - when fertility is going to be below replacement level in virtually all developed countries - are thus much better than predicted by conventional R&D-based growth theory.R&D, unified growth theory, declining population, fertility, schooling, human capital, post-modern society.

Agglomeration and population ageing in a two region model of exogenous growth

This article investigates the effects of introducing demography into the New Economic Geography. We generalize the constructed capital approach, which relies on infinite individual planning horizons, by introducing mortality. The resulting overlapping generation framework with heterogeneous individuals allows us to study the effects of ageing on agglomeration processes by analytically identifying the level of trade costs that triggers catastrophic agglomeration. Interestingly, this threshold value is rather sensitive to changes in mortality. In particular, the introduction of a positive mortality rate makes the symmetric equilibrium more stable and therefore counteracts agglomeration tendencies. In sharp contrast to other New Economic Geography approaches, this implies that deeper integration is not necessarily associated with higher interregional inequality.Agglomeration, New Economic Geography, Trade and Growth, Constructed Capital Model, Population Ageing.

The Dynamic Interrelations between Unequal Neighbors: An Austro-German Case Study

This article investigates the effects and transmission channels of shocks between two asymmetric neighboring countries. In particular, we investigate Austria and Germany which are highly integrated due to their common language and common membership of the European Monetary Union. Generalized impulse response functions reveal that there are large and significant effects of shocks to the German economy on Austria. In contrast, the effects of shocks to the Austrian economy on Germany are barely significant and if they are, their magnitude is comparatively small. Furthermore we can show that multiplier effects are present in Germany but not in Austria and we identify hysteretic properties in Austrian unemployment.

A Study of Chloride Levels in Pine Creek, Allegheny County, PA

Pine Creek is a 22.8-mile long tributary to the Allegheny River draining over 67 square miles of northern Allegheny County, PA. The main stem runs along Route 8 and receives extensive runoff from road salt from deicing. A site near Etna, PA sampled biweekly in 2013 consistently showed elevated conductivity that correlated with increased chloride levels. Winter road deicing runoff produced acute chloride concentrations up to 678 mg/L. Chloride fluctuated in the summer and autumn months but did not exceed the USEPA Secondary Drinking Water Standard (250 mg/L) or the aquatic life criterion for chronic concentrations (230 mg/L). Sampling throughout Pine Creek failed to identify point sources but chronic chloride contamination throughout the watershed, including the headwaters. Seasonal chemical parameters of surface and groundwater their associations with fish surveys of the watershed were examined. The results suggest deicing is a main contributor to chloride in the Pine Creek watershed

R&D-Based Growth in the Post-Modern Era.

Conventional R&D-based growth theory suggests that productivity growth is positively correlated with population size or population growth, an implication which is hard to see in the data. Here we integrate micro-founded fertility and schooling into an otherwise standard R&D-based growth model. We then show how a Beckerian child quality-quantity trade-off explains why higher growth of productivity and income per capita are associated with lower population growth. The medium-run prospects for future economic growth - when fertility is going to be below replacement level in virtually all fully developed countries - are thus much better than predicted by conventional R&D-based growth theory..Endogenous growth, R&D, declining population, fertility, schooling, human capital, postmodern society, post-transitional fertility.

Declining fertility and economic well-being: do education and health ride to the rescue?

It is widely argued that declining fertility slows the pace of economic growth through its negative effect on labor supply. There are, however, theoretical arguments suggesting that the effect of falling fertility on effective labor supply can be offset by the associated behavioral changes. We formalize these arguments by setting forth a dynamic consumer optimization model that incorporates endogenous fertility as well as endogenous educational and health investments. The model shows that a fertility decline induces higher education and health investments that are able to compensate for declining fertility under certain circumstances. We assess the theoretical implications by investigating panel data for 118 countries over the period 1980 to 2005 and show that behavioral changes partly mitigate the negative impact of declining fertility on effective labor supply.demographic change, effective labor supply, human capital,population health, economic growth