Subjective Beliefs about Contract Enforceability

This article assesses the content, role, and adaptability of subjective beliefs about contract enforceability in the context of postemployment covenants not to compete (“noncompetes”). We show that employees tend to believe that their noncompetes are enforceable, even when they are not. We provide evidence for both supply- and demand-side stories that explain employees’ persistently inaccurate beliefs. Moreover, we show that believing that unenforceable noncompetes are enforceable likely causes employees to forgo better job options and to perceive that their employer is more likely to take legal action against them if they choose to compete. Finally, we use an information experiment to inform employees about the enforceability of their noncompete. While this information matters for employee beliefs and prospective behavior, it does not appear to eliminate an unenforceable noncompete as a factor in the decision to take a new job. We discuss the implications of our results for the policy debate regarding the enforceability of noncompetes

The Behavioral Effects of (Unenforceable) Contracts

Do contracts influence behavior independent of the law governing their enforceability? We explore this question in the context of employment noncompetes using nationally representative data for 11,500 labor force participants. We show that noncompetes are associated with reductions in employee mobility and changes in the direction of that mobility (i.e., toward noncompetitors) in both states that do and do not enforce noncompetes. Decomposing mobility into job offer generation and acceptance, we detect no evidence of differences in job search, recruitment, or offer activity associated with noncompetes. Rather, we find that employees with noncompetes—even in states that do not enforce them—frequently point to their noncompete as an important reason for declining offers from competitors. Our data further show that these employees’ beliefs about the likelihood of a lawsuit or legal enforcement are important predictors of their citing a noncompete as a factor in their decision to decline competitor offers

Targeting Poverty in the Courts: Improving the Measurement of Ability to Pay

Ability-to-pay determinations are essential when governments use money-based alternative sanctions, like fines, to enforce laws. One longstanding difficulty in the U.S. has been the extreme lack of guidance on how courts are to determine a litigant’s ability to pay. The result has been a seat-of-the-pants approach that is inefficient and inaccurate, and, as a consequence, very socially costly. Fortunately, online platform technology presents a promising avenue for reform. In particular, platform technology offers the potential to increase litigant access, reduce costs, and ensure consistent and fair treatment—all of which should lead to more accurate sanctions. We use interviews, surveys, and case-level data to evaluate and discuss the experiences of six courts that recently adopted an online ability-to-pay assessment tool that streamlines and standardizes ability-to-pay determinations. Our findings suggest that the online tool improves accuracy and therefore the effectiveness of fines as punishments, and so it may make the use of fines as sanctions more socially attractive

The Problem with Assumptions: Revisiting the Dark Figure of Sexual Recidivism

What is the actual rate of sexual recidivism given the well-known fact that many crimes go unreported? This is a difficult and important problem, and in The Dark Figure of Sexual Recidivism, Nicholas Scurich and Richard S. John (2019) attempt to make progress on it by “estimate[ing] actual recidivism rates given observed rates of reoffending” (p.172). In this article, we show that the math in their probabilistic model is flawed, but more important, we demonstrate that their conclusions follow ineluctably from their empirical assumptions and the unrepresentative empirical research they cite to benchmark their calculations. Scurich and John contend that their analysis undermines what they call the “orthodoxy in academic circles” (p.172) of low sexual recidivism rates among individuals convicted of sex offenses, but we underscore that their article does not analyze data in the traditional sense; instead, it just interprets past scholarly work through the use of strong assumptions in a way that, for practitioners, is likely to be opaque and misleading (and, for us, strays into speculation, argument, or advocacy and away from objective research). Our simple calculations show that their findings are highly sensitive to their assumptions, and we conclude that courts and others should recognize Scurich and John’s work for what it is—a set of complex hypotheticals that are no more reliable than what judges and lawyers accomplish on their own by simply recognizing the basic problem that not all sex offenses are reported

Resistance studies of erythromycin and rifampin for Rhodococcus equi over a 10-year period

This study sought to determine whether an increase in resistance of Rhodococcus equi to the antibiotics rifampin and erythromycin occurred over a 10-year period. This was carried out by the use of E test strips for rifampin and erythromycin to determine the MIC (minimum inhibitory concentration) values of Rhodococcus equi to this combination of antibiotics

Common carp (Cyprinus carpio L.) alters its feeding niche in response to changing food resources: direct observations in simulated ponds

We used customized fish tanks as model fish ponds to observe grazing, swimming, and conspecific social behavior of common carp (Cyprinus carpio) under variable food-resource conditions to assess alterations in feeding niche. Different food and feeding situations were created by using only pond water or pond water plus pond bottom sediment or pond water plus pond bottom sediment and artificial feeding. All tanks were fertilized twice, prior to stocking and 2 weeks later after starting the experiment to stimulate natural food production. Common carp preferred artificial feed over benthic macroinvertebrates, followed by zooplankton. Common carp did not prefer any group of phytoplankton in any treatment. Common carp was mainly benthic in habitat choice, feeding on benthic macroinvertebrates when only plankton and benthic macroinvertebrates were available in the system. In the absence of benthic macroinvertebrates, their feeding niche shifted from near the bottom of the tanks to the water column where they spent 85% of the total time and fed principally on zooplankton. Common carp readily switched to artificial feed when available, which led to better growth. Common carp preferred to graze individually. Behavioral observations of common carp in tanks yielded new information that assists our understanding of their ecological niche. This knowledge could be potentially used to further the development of common carp aquaculture

Macroscopic effects of the spectral structure in turbulent flows

Two aspects of turbulent flows have been the subject of extensive, split research efforts: macroscopic properties, such as the frictional drag experienced by a flow past a wall, and the turbulent spectrum. The turbulent spectrum may be said to represent the fabric of a turbulent state; in practice it is a power law of exponent \alpha (the "spectral exponent") that gives the revolving velocity of a turbulent fluctuation (or "eddy") of size s as a function of s. The link, if any, between macroscopic properties and the turbulent spectrum remains missing. Might it be found by contrasting the frictional drag in flows with differing types of spectra? Here we perform unprecedented measurements of the frictional drag in soap-film flows, where the spectral exponent \alpha = 3 and compare the results with the frictional drag in pipe flows, where the spectral exponent \alpha = 5/3. For moderate values of the Reynolds number Re (a measure of the strength of the turbulence), we find that in soap-film flows the frictional drag scales as Re^{-1/2}, whereas in pipe flows the frictional drag scales as Re^{-1/4} . Each of these scalings may be predicted from the attendant value of \alpha by using a new theory, in which the frictional drag is explicitly linked to the turbulent spectrum. Our work indicates that in turbulence, as in continuous phase transitions, macroscopic properties are governed by the spectral structure of the fluctuations.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figure

NT-proBNP by Itself Predicts Death and Cardiovascular Events in High-Risk Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

BACKGROUND: NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) improves the discriminatory ability of risk-prediction models in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) but is not yet used in clinical practice. We assessed the discriminatory strength of NT-proBNP by itself for death and cardiovascular events in high-risk patients with T2DM. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cox proportional hazards were used to create a base model formed by 20 variables. The discriminatory ability of the base model was compared with that of NT-proBNP alone and with NT-proBNP added, using C-statistics. We studied 5509 patients (with complete data) of 8561 patients with T2DM and cardiovascular and/or chronic kidney disease who were enrolled in the ALTITUDE (Aliskiren in Type 2 Diabetes Using Cardiorenal Endpoints) trial. During a median 2.6-year follow-up period, 469 patients died and 768 had a cardiovascular composite outcome (cardiovascular death, resuscitated cardiac arrest, nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure hospitalization). NT-proBNP alone was as discriminatory as the base model for predicting death (C-statistic, 0.745 versus 0.744, P=0.95) and the cardiovascular composite outcome (C-statistic, 0.723 versus 0.731, P=0.37). When NT-proBNP was added, it increased the predictive ability of the base model for death (C-statistic, 0.779 versus 0.744, P<0.001) and for cardiovascular composite outcome (C-statistic, 0.763 versus 0.731, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In high-risk patients with T2DM, NT-proBNP by itself demonstrated discriminatory ability similar to a multivariable model in predicting both death and cardiovascular events and should be considered for risk stratification. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00549757

Bargaining with Optimism

Excessive optimism is a prominent explanation for bargaining delays. Recent results demonstrate that optimism plays a subtle role in bargaining, and its careful analysis may shed valuable insights into negotiation behavior. This article reviews some of these results, focusing on the following findings. First, when there is a nearby deadline, optimistic players delay the agreement to the last period before the deadline, replicating a broad empirical regularity known as the deadline effect. Second, there cannot be a substantial delay under persistent optimism; i.e., excessive optimism alone cannot explain delays. Third, when optimistic players are expected to learn during the negotiation, they delay the agreement in order to persuade their opponents. The delays in these results can be quite costly, Pareto inefficient, and common knowledge at the beginning of the game

The challenges faced in the design, conduct and analysis of surgical randomised controlled trials

Randomised evaluations of surgical interventions are rare; some interventions have been widely adopted without rigorous evaluation. Unlike other medical areas, the randomised controlled trial (RCT) design has not become the default study design for the evaluation of surgical interventions. Surgical trials are difficult to successfully undertake and pose particular practical and methodological challenges. However, RCTs have played a role in the assessment of surgical innovations and there is scope and need for greater use. This article will consider the design, conduct and analysis of an RCT of a surgical intervention. The issues will be reviewed under three headings: the timing of the evaluation, defining the research question and trial design issues. Recommendations on the conduct of future surgical RCTs are made. Collaboration between research and surgical communities is needed to address the distinct issues raised by the assessmentof surgical interventions and enable the conduct of appropriate and well-designed trials.The Health Services Research Unit is funded by the Scottish Government Health DirectoratesPeer reviewedPublisher PD