Analitički hijerarhijski proces kao metod predviđanja ekonomskih pojava evaluacijom alternativnih budućih ishoda

Osnovna istraživanja u ovoj doktorskoj disertaciji predstavljaju sintezu više otvorenih,ali logički i suštinski povezanih pitanja. Polazeći od okvira istraživanja definisanog sadržajem rada, može se konstatovati da se naučni cilj ove doktorske disertacije sastojao u proučavanju sposobnosti Analitičkog hijerarhijskog procesa (AHP), kao metoda za podršku odlučivanju, da poboljša i unapredi proces predviñanja ekonomskih pojava, imajući u vidu blisku povezanost predviñanja i odlučivanja. Takoñe, doktorska disertacija je imala za cilj i da pokuša da otkloni neke dileme koje postoje u vezi sa principima korišćenja AHP a čije konsekvence na proces predviñanja nisu dovoljno jasne. Konačno, iako je univerzalnost primene AHP u svetskim okvirima dobro poznata, domaća naučna i stručna javnost, posebno analitičari u preduzećima uglavnom se oslanjaju na statističke metode predviñanja. Jedan od ciljeva disertacije je bio i upoznavanje menadžmenta domaćih preduzeća sa praktičnim prednostima implementacije AHP u procesu odlučivanja i pojedinim njegovim segmentima

Decision-making under uncertainty – the integrated approach of the AHP and Bayesian analysis

In situations where it is necessary to perform a large number of experiments in order to collect adequate statistical data which require expert analysis and assessment, there is a need to define a model that will include and coordinate statistical data and experts’ opinions. This article points out the new integrated application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Bayesian analysis, in the sense that the Bayes’ formula can improve the accuracy of input data for the Analytical Hierarchy Process, and vice versa, AHP can provide objectified inputs for the Bayesian formula in situations where the statistical estimates of probability are not possible. In this sense, the AHP can be considered as the Bayesian process that allows decision-makers to objectify their decisions and formalise the decision process through pairwise comparison of elements

Fuzzy Approach in Ranking of Banks according to Financial Performances

Evaluating bank performance on a yearly basis and making comparison among banks in certain time intervals provide an insight into general financial state of banks and their relative position with respect to the environment (creditors, investors, and stakeholders). The aim of this study is to propose a new fuzzy multicriteria model to evaluate banks respecting relative importance of financial performances and their values. The relative importance of each pair of financial performance groups is assessed linguistic expressions which are modeled by triangular fuzzy numbers. Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchical Process (FAHP) is applied to determine relative weights of the financial performances. In order to rank the treated banks, new model based on Fuzzy Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS) is deployed. The proposed model is illustrated by an example giving real life data from 12 banks having 80% share of the Serbian market. In order to verify the proposed FTOPSIS different measures of separation are used. The presented solution enables the ranking of banks, gives an insight of bank's state to stakeholders, and provides base for successful improvement in a field of strategy quality in bank business

An integrated SWOT–extended PIPRECIA model for identifying key determinants of tourism development: The case of Serbia

This paper proposes a new integrated model based on SWOT and extended PIvot Pairwise RElative Criteria Importance Assessment (PIPRECIA) that offers a systematic approach to strategic planning in tourism. The applicability of the proposed integrated model is demonstrated through a case study defining the main determinants of tourism development in Serbia. The result emphasizes the strategy Improving the organization, management, and enhancement of tourism development as the highest priority for implementation. The model facilitates decision-making in tourism, and its key advantages are its suitability for application in group decision-making and its simplicity

Fuzzy Approach in Ranking of Banks according to Financial Performances

Evaluating bank performance on a yearly basis and making comparison among banks in certain time intervals provide an insight into general financial state of banks and their relative position with respect to the environment (creditors, investors, and stakeholders). The aim of this study is to propose a new fuzzy multicriteria model to evaluate banks respecting relative importance of financial performances and their values. The relative importance of each pair of financial performance groups is assessed linguistic expressions which are modeled by triangular fuzzy numbers. Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchical Process (FAHP) is applied to determine relative weights of the financial performances. In order to rank the treated banks, new model based on Fuzzy Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS) is deployed. The proposed model is illustrated by an example giving real life data from 12 banks having 80% share of the Serbian market. In order to verify the proposed FTOPSIS different measures of separation are used. The presented solution enables the ranking of banks, gives an insight of bank's state to stakeholders, and provides base for successful improvement in a field of strategy quality in bank business

Fuzzy Approach in Ranking of Banks according to Financial Performances

Evaluating bank performance on a yearly basis and making comparison among banks in certain time intervals provide an insight into general financial state of banks and their relative position with respect to the environment (creditors, investors, and stakeholders). The aim of this study is to propose a new fuzzy multicriteria model to evaluate banks respecting relative importance of financial performances and their values. The relative importance of each pair of financial performance groups is assessed linguistic expressions which are modeled by triangular fuzzy numbers. Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchical Process (FAHP) is applied to determine relative weights of the financial performances. In order to rank the treated banks, new model based on Fuzzy Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS) is deployed. The proposed model is illustrated by an example giving real life data from 12 banks having 80% share of the Serbian market. In order to verify the proposed FTOPSIS different measures of separation are used. The presented solution enables the ranking of banks, gives an insight of bank’s state to stakeholders, and provides base for successful improvement in a field of strategy quality in bank business

Multicriteria two-stage model of assessment of museums' business strategies

This paper analyzes and evaluates the museum activities in the current social, economic and political context, in order to prove the need for the identification and evaluation of business strategy for the cultural sector in general. In addition, the paper also studies methodological issues related to the model of evaluation and assessment of the strategy in the case of The 'Kragujevački Oktobar' Memorial Park. By applying the SWOT analysis and Analytic network process (ANP) as an expert method for the support to decision making, critical success factors have been identified and their evaluation performed, in order to create optimum conditions for formulating business strategies and sustainable development of the Memorial Park

Two-stage model for the evaluation suppliers in different types of supply chains

© 2019, Centar for Quality. Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to, based on the model developed to improve supplier performance and models for supplier evaluation and ranking in different types of supply chains, contribute to the expansion of existing conceptual frameworks for measuring supplier performance, indicating that some key performance indicators used to evaluate and rank suppliers have a different relative importance in different types of supply chains. Design/methodology/approach - The research includes evaluation, ranking, and comparison of six suppliers belonging to an efficient type of supply chain and an agile type of supply chain. For the evaluation and ranking of suppliers by types of supply chains, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the data envelopment analysis (DEA) are combined. Novelty - Research in this field has dealt with supplier evaluation and ranking without taking into account the characteristics of different types of supply chains. The contribution of this paper lies in the development of a new model for supplier evaluation and ranking, taking into account the priorities of key performance indicators in different types of supply chains, providing management support in decision-making through simulation and finding the optimal solution for a particular supply chain. Practical implications - Developed and proposed models provide company management with the opportunity to apply a multiple-criteria decision-making model as a support in evaluating and ranking suppliers in different types of e-supply chains

Decision-making under uncertainty - The integrated approach of the AHP and Bayesian analysis

© 2015 The Author(s). Published by Taylor & Francis. In situations where it is necessary to perform a large number of experiments in order to collect adequate statistical data which require expert analysis and assessment, there is a need to define a model that will include and coordinate statistical data and experts’ opinions. This article points out the new integrated application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Bayesian analysis, in the sense that the Bayes’ formula can improve the accuracy of input data for the Analytical Hierarchy Process, and vice versa, AHP can provide objectified inputs for the Bayesian formula in situations where the statistical estimates of probability are not possible. In this sense, the AHP can be considered as the Bayesian process that allows decision-makers to objectify their decisions and formalise the decision process through pairwise comparison of elements

Dynamic analysis of the efficiency of research and development systems of South-European countries

© 2019 Faculty of Organizational Sciences, Belgrade. All rights reserved. The non-parametric deterministic procedure of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to measure and compare relative efficiency of research and development (R/D) activities in nine South-European countries in the period 2007-2016 is applied in this paper. To that end, we made a corresponding DEA model with nine decision-making units, two inputs and two outputs, selected by correlation analysis. The obtained results, i.e., relative R/D efficiency, were subject to correlation analysis in the context of the achieved average gross domestic product growth rate of the observed decision-making units, which showed that there was no strong correlation between those two variables at the level of the observed national economies