From local monitoring to a broad‐scale viability assessment: a case study for the Bonelli's Eagle in western Europe

Population viability analysis (PVA) has become a basic tool of current conservation practice. However, if not accounted for properly, the uncertainties inherent to PVA predictions can decrease the reliability of this type of analysis. In the present study, we performed a PVA of the whole western European population (France, Portugal, and Spain) of the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata), in which we thoroughly explored the consequences of uncertainty in population processes and parameters on PVA predictions. First, we estimated key vital rates (survival, fertility, recruitment, and dispersal rates) using monitoring, ringing, and bibliographic data from the period 1990-2009 from 12 populations found throughout the studied geographic range. Second, we evaluated the uncertainty about model structure (i.e., the assumed processes that govern individual fates and population dynamics) by comparing the observed growth rates of the studied populations with model predictions for the same period. Third, using the model structures suggested in the previous step, we assessed the viability of both the local populations and the overall population. Finally, we analyzed the effects of model and parameter uncertainty on PVA predictions. Our results strongly support the idea that all local populations in western Europe belong to a single, spatially structured population operating as a source-sink system, whereby the populations in the south of the Iberian Peninsula act as sources and, thanks to dispersal, sustain all other local populations, which would otherwise decline. Predictions regarding population dynamics varied considerably, and models assuming more constrained dispersal predicted more pessimistic population trends than models assuming greater dispersal. Model predictions accounting for parameter uncertainty revealed a marked increase in the risk of population declines over the next 50 years. Sensitivity analyses indicated that adult and pre‐adult survival are the chief vital rates regulating these populations, and thus, the conservation efforts aimed at improving these survival rates should be strengthened in order to guarantee the long‐term viability of the European populations of this endangered species. Overall, the study provides a framework for the implementation of multi‐site PVAs and highlights the importance of dispersal processes in shaping the population dynamics of long‐lived birds distributed across heterogeneous landscapes

EPIdemiology of Surgery-Associated Acute Kidney Injury (EPIS-AKI) : Study protocol for a multicentre, observational trial

More than 300 million surgical procedures are performed each year. Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication after major surgery and is associated with adverse short-term and long-term outcomes. However, there is a large variation in the incidence of reported AKI rates. The establishment of an accurate epidemiology of surgery-associated AKI is important for healthcare policy, quality initiatives, clinical trials, as well as for improving guidelines. The objective of the Epidemiology of Surgery-associated Acute Kidney Injury (EPIS-AKI) trial is to prospectively evaluate the epidemiology of AKI after major surgery using the latest Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) consensus definition of AKI. EPIS-AKI is an international prospective, observational, multicentre cohort study including 10 000 patients undergoing major surgery who are subsequently admitted to the ICU or a similar high dependency unit. The primary endpoint is the incidence of AKI within 72 hours after surgery according to the KDIGO criteria. Secondary endpoints include use of renal replacement therapy (RRT), mortality during ICU and hospital stay, length of ICU and hospital stay and major adverse kidney events (combined endpoint consisting of persistent renal dysfunction, RRT and mortality) at day 90. Further, we will evaluate preoperative and intraoperative risk factors affecting the incidence of postoperative AKI. In an add-on analysis, we will assess urinary biomarkers for early detection of AKI. EPIS-AKI has been approved by the leading Ethics Committee of the Medical Council North Rhine-Westphalia, of the Westphalian Wilhelms-University Münster and the corresponding Ethics Committee at each participating site. Results will be disseminated widely and published in peer-reviewed journals, presented at conferences and used to design further AKI-related trials. Trial registration number NCT04165369

From local monitoring to a broad-scale viability assessment: A case study for the Bonelli's Eagle in western Europe

International audienc

Escherichia coli verotoxigênica: isolamento e prevalência em 60 propriedades de bovinos de leite da região de Pelotas, RS, Brasil Verotoxin-producing Escherichia coli: isolation and prevalence in 60 dairy cattle farms from Pelotas-RS, Brazil

A produção de verotoxinas foi investigada em 1.127 isolamentos de Escherichia coli feitos a partir de 243 bovinos de leite, de água de consumo humano e animal e de amostras de leite de 60 propriedades da bacia leiteira de Pelotas, no período de dezembro de 1999 a dezembro de 2000, com o objetivo de determinar a prevalência de E. coli verotoxigênicas (VTEC) nas propriedades e no rebanho, de detectar a presença de sorotipos ligados a infecções humanas e de identificar, nas propriedades e na região de Pelotas, potenciais fatores de risco de infecção para os animais. A detecção das toxinas em sobrenadante de culturas de E. coli isoladas foi realizada através do ensaio de citotoxicidade em células Vero. VTEC foi isolada em 95% (57/60) das propriedades estudadas, em 49% (119/243) dos animais testados, em 5% (3/60) das amostras de água de consumo humano, em 8,35% (5/60) das amostras de água de consumo animal e em 5% (3/60) das amostras de leite. A prevalência de bovinos infectados em cada propriedade variou de 0 a 100%. Em 2,9% (7/243) dos animais testados, foram isoladas VTEC pertencentes aos sorogrupos O157, O91 e O112, que incluem cepas responsáveis por casos de colite hemorrágica e síndrome urêmica hemolítica em humanos. Fatores de risco de contaminação, como a precipitação pluviométrica, a temperatura, o tamanho da propriedade e a concentração de animais, apresentaram evidências de influenciarem a prevalência de VTEC nos animais. Estes resultados sugerem que o grupo VTEC está amplamente distribuído na bacia leiteira de Pelotas e inclui organismos pertencentes a sorogrupos patogênicos para humanos.<br>The production of verotoxin was investigated in 1127 Escherichia coli isolated from 243 dairy cattle, water for human and animal consumption, and milk samples from 60 dairy farms from Pelotas-Brazil, from December of 1999 to December of 2000, to determine the prevalence of verotoxigenic E. coli (VTEC) in farms, to detect the presence of serotypes involved in human infections and to identify potential risk factors for animal infection. Vero cell assay was used to detect toxins in culture supernatants from E. coli isolated. VTEC was isolated in 95% (57/60) from farms and in 49% (119/243) from cattle, 5% (3/60) from water of human consumption, in 8.35% (5/60) from water animal consumption and 5% (3/60) from milk samples. The prevalence of cattle infected for each farm ranged from 0 to 100%. VTEC belonging to serogroups O157, O91 and O112, which include strains responsible for cases of hemorrhagic colitis and hemolytic uremic syndrome in humans, were isolated from 7 (2.9%) out of 243 cattle. Risk factors for contamination, such as amount of rain, farm size and cattle number, influenced cattle prevalence rate. These results suggest that VTEC is widely distributed among dairy cattle in the region surveyed and includes organisms from serogroups pathogenic for humans