Adaptive Governance for Energy System Decentralisation: A case study of the National Electricity Market in Eastern Australia

This thesis investigates how the role of an adaptive governance framework, adapted from social-ecological transition (SET) theory, could assist in the challenges associated with electricity system decarbonisation and decentralisation through a case study of the National Electricity Market (NEM) in eastern Australia. The NEM is currently undergoing change at the household, distribution and system level due to the rapid uptake of solar PV and increasingly, domestic battery storage. By using a case study of an area where rapid change is happening, the thesis offers insights in the form of a general framework for adaptive governance that could assist policymakers in meeting decarbonisation targets in Great Britain. SET theory suggests that adaptive governance is needed within social-ecological systems (SES) to manage the transformation of a system that is locked-in to an undesirable state. Adaptive governance is achieved by the empowerment of local actors to create local policy, thereby increasing the innovation potential of the local areas to meet the local policy strategy. Policy and innovation are then coordinated to meet an overarching national vision. The NEM is currently experiencing a form of carbon lock-in. While the federal system of government has allowed State initiatives to incentivise the use of DER, a lack of a national vision and coordination of State policy and the innovations stemming from these policies has created challenges in maintaining the functionality of the electricity system. Taking lessons learnt from the NEM case study and SET theory, this thesis suggests an adaptive governance framework that could assist in electricity system decentralisation, through the empowerment of local policy which is coordinated to meet a national vision. This has lessons for GB, in particular, because GB has set a target for net-zero emissions by 2050. Reaching this target requires increasing the use of distributed energy resources (DER). Enabling decentralisation to work in conjunction with the traditional centralised system requires new rules, new regulations, new markets and new institutions. Taking lessons learnt from an energy system that has already undergone this type of change, an alternative approach for GB policymakers is suggested that may assist with the challenge of enabling decentralisation in the GB energy system.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC

15N-labeled Escherichia coli tRNAfMet, tRNAGlu, tRNATyr, and tRNAPhe. Double resonance and two-dimensional NMR of N1-labeled pseudouridine.

Journal ArticleThe N1 imino units in Escherichia coli tRNAfMet, tRNAGlu, tRNAPhe, and tRNATyr were studied by 1H-15N NMR using three different techniques to suppress signals of protons not attached to 15N. Two of the procedures, Fourier internuclear difference spectroscopy and two-dimensional forbidden echo spectroscopy permitted 1H and 15N chemical shifts to be measured simultaneously at 1H sensitivity. The tRNAs were labeled by fermentation of the uracil auxotroph S phi 187 on a minimal medium containing [1-15N]uracil. 1H and 15N resonances were detected for all of the N1 psi imino units except psi 13 at the end of the dihydrouridine stem in tRNAGlu. Chemical shifts for imino units in the tRNAs were compared with "intrinsic" values in model systems. The comparisons show that the A X psi pairs at the base of the anticodon stem in E. coli tRNAPhe and tRNATyr have psi in an anti conformation. The N1 protons of psi in other locations, including psi 32 in the anticodon loop of tRNAPhe, form internal hydrogen bonds to bridging water molecules or 2'-hydroxyl groups in nearby ribose units. These interactions permit psi to stabilize the tertiary structure of a tRNA beyond what is provided by the U it replaces

Domain wall entropy of the bimodal two-dimensional Ising spin glass

We report calculations of the domain wall entropy for the bimodal two-dimensional Ising spin glass in the critical ground state. The L * L system sizes are large with L up to 256. We find that it is possible to fit the variance of the domain wall entropy to a power function of L. However, the quality of the data distributions are unsatisfactory with large L > 96. Consequently, it is not possible to reliably determine the fractal dimension of the domain walls.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, submitted to PR

Economic evaluation of ASCOT-BPLA: Antihypertensive treatment with an amlodipine-based regimen is cost-effective compared to an atenolol-based regimen

Copyright © 2010 BMJ Publishing Group Ltd & British Cardiovascular Society. Internal or personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material must be obtained from the Publisher.Objective: To compare the cost effectiveness of an amlodipine-based strategy and an atenolol-based strategy in the treatment of hypertension in the UK and Sweden. Design: A prospective, randomised trial complemented with a Markov model to assess long-term costs and health effects. Setting: Primary care. Patients: Patients with moderate hypertension and three or more additional risk factors. Interventions: Amlodipine 5–10 mg with perindopril 4–8 mg added as needed or atenolol 50–100 mg with bendroflumethiazide 1.25–2.5 mg and potassium added as needed Main outcome measures: Cost per cardiovascular event and procedure avoided, and cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Results: In the UK, the cost to avoid one cardiovascular event or procedure would be €18 965, and the cost to gain one quality-adjusted life-year would be €21 875. The corresponding figures for Sweden were €13 210 and €16 856. Conclusions: Compared with the thresholds applied by NICE and in the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare’s Guidelines for Cardiac Care, an amlodipine-based regimen is cost effective for the treatment of hypertension compared with an atenolol-based regimen in the population studied.The study was supported by the principal funding source, Pfizer, New York, USA

Energy gap of the bimodal two-dimensional Ising spin glass

An exact algorithm is used to compute the degeneracies of the excited states of the bimodal Ising spin glass in two dimensions. It is found that the specific heat at arbitrary low temperature is not a self-averaging quantity and has a distribution that is neither normal or lognormal. Nevertheless, it is possible to estimate the most likely value and this is found to scale as L^3 T^(-2) exp(-4J/kT), for a L*L lattice. Our analysis also explains, for the first time, why a correlation length \xi ~ exp(2J/kT) is consistent with an energy gap of 2J. Our method allows us to obtain results for up to 10^5 disorder realizations with L <= 64. Distributions of second and third excitations are also shown.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

ATOS-1: Designing the infrastructure for an advanced spacecraft operations system

The space industry has identified the need to use artificial intelligence and knowledge based system techniques as integrated, central, symbolic processing components of future mission design, support and operations systems. Various practical and commercial constraints require that off-the-shelf applications, and their knowledge bases, are reused where appropriate and that different mission contractors, potentially using different KBS technologies, can provide application and knowledge sub-modules of an overall integrated system. In order to achieve this integration, which we call knowledge sharing and distributed reasoning, there needs to be agreement on knowledge representations, knowledge interchange-formats, knowledge level communications protocols, and ontology. Research indicates that the latter is most important, providing the applications with a common conceptualization of the domain, in our case spacecraft operations, mission design, and planning. Agreement on ontology permits applications that employ different knowledge representations to interwork through mediators which we refer to as knowledge agents. This creates the illusion of a shared model without the constraints, both technical and commercial, that occur in centralized or uniform architectures. This paper explains how these matters are being addressed within the ATOS program at ESOC, using techniques which draw upon ideas and standards emerging from the DARPA Knowledge Sharing Effort. In particular, we explain how the project is developing an electronic Ontology of Spacecraft Operations and how this can be used as an enabling component within space support systems that employ advanced software engineering. We indicate our hope and expectation that the core ontology developed in ATOS, will permit the full development of standards for such systems throughout the space industry

Cost-effectiveness of community-based strategies for blood pressure control in a low-income developing country: findings from a cluster-randomized, factorial-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on economically efficient strategies to lower blood pressure (BP) from low- and middle-income countries remains scarce. The Control of Blood Pressure and Risk Attenuation (COBRA) trial randomized 1341 hypertensive subjects in 12 randomly selected communities in Karachi, Pakistan, to 3 intervention programs: (1) combined home health education (HHE) plus trained general practitioner (GP); (2) HHE only; and (3) trained GP only. The comparator was no intervention (or usual care). The reduction in BP was most pronounced in the combined group. The present study examined the cost-effectiveness of these strategies. METHODS AND RESULTS: Total costs were assessed at baseline and 2 years to estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios based on (1) intervention cost; (2) cost of physician consultation, medications, diagnostics, changes in lifestyle, and productivity loss; and (3) change in systolic BP. Precision of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio estimates was assessed by 1000 bootstrapping replications. Bayesian probabilistic sensitivity analysis was also performed. The annual costs per participant associated with the combined HHE plus trained GP, HHE alone, and trained GP alone were $3.99,$3.34, and $0.65, respectively. HHE plus trained GP was the most cost-effective intervention, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of$23 (95 confidence interval, 6-99) per mm Hg reduction in systolic BP compared with usual care, and remained so in 97.7 of 1000 bootstrapped replications. CONCLUSIONS: The combined intervention of HHE plus trained GP is potentially affordable and more cost-effective for BP control than usual care or either strategy alone in some communities in Pakistan, and possibly other countries in Indochina with similar healthcare infrastructure

Molecular pathway reconstruction and analysis of disturbed gene expression in depressed individuals who died by suicide

Molecular mechanisms behind the etiology and pathophysiology of major depressive disorder and suicide remain largely unknown. Recent molecular studies of expression of serotonin, GABA and CRH receptors in various brain regions have demonstrated that molecular factors may contribute to the development of depressive disorder and suicide behaviour. Here, we used microarray analysis to examine the expression of genes in brain tissue (frontopolar cortex) of individuals who had been diagnosed with major depressive disorder and died by suicide, and those who had died suddenly without a history of depression. We analyzed the list of differentially expressed genes using pathway analysis, which is an assumption-free approach to analyze microarray data. Our analysis revealed that the differentially expressed genes formed functional networks that were implicated in cell to cell signaling related to synapse maturation, neuronal growth and neuronal complexity. We further validated these data by randomly choosing (100 times) similarly sized gene lists and subjecting these lists to the same analyses. Random gene lists did not provide highly connected gene networks like those generated by the differentially expressed list derived from our samples. We also found through correlational analysis that the gene expression of control participants was more highly coordinated than in the MDD/suicide group. These data suggest that among depressed individuals who died by suicide, wide ranging perturbations of gene expression exist that are critical for normal synaptic connectively, morphology and cell to cell communication

A protocol for an economic evaluation of a polypill in patients with established or at high risk of cardiovascular disease in a UK NHS setting: RUPEE (NHS) study.

INTRODUCTION: The 'Use of a Multi-drug Pill in Reducing cardiovascular Events' (UMPIRE) trial was a randomised controlled clinical trial evaluating the impact of a polypill strategy on adherence to indicated medication in a population with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) of or at high risk thereof. The aim of Researching the UMPIRE Processes for Economic Evaluation in the National Health Service (RUPEE NHS) is to estimate the potential health economic impact of a polypill strategy for CVD prevention within the NHS using UMPIRE trial and other relevant data. This paper describes the design of a modelled economic evaluation of the impact of increased adherence to the polypill versus usual care among the UK UMPIRE participants. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: As recommended by the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and the Society for Medical Decision Making modelling guidelines, a review of published CVD models was undertaken to identify the most appropriate modelling approach and structure. The review was carried out in the electronic databases, MEDLINE and EMBASE. 40 CVD models were identified from 57 studies, the majority of economic models were health state transition cohort models and individual-level simulation models. The findings were discussed with clinical experts to confirm the approach and structure. An individual simulation approach was identified as the most suitable method to capture the heterogeneity in the population at CVD risk. RUPEE-NHS will use UMPIRE trial data on adherence to estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of the polypill strategy. DISSEMINATION: The evaluation findings will be presented in open-access scientific and healthcare policy journals and at national and international conferences. We will also present findings to NHS policy makers and pharmaceutical companies

A Protocol for an economic evaluation of a polypill in patients with established or at high risk of cardiovascular disease in a UK NHS setting: RUPEE (NHS) study

Copyright © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. Introduction: The ‘Use of a Multi-drug Pill in Reducing cardiovascular Events’ (UMPIRE) trial was a randomised controlled clinical trial evaluating the impact of a polypill strategy on adherence to indicated medication in a population with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) of or at high risk thereof. The aim of Researching the UMPIRE Processes for Economic Evaluation in the National Health Service (RUPEE NHS) is to estimate the potential health economic impact of a polypill strategy for CVD prevention within the NHS using UMPIRE trial and other relevant data. This paper describes the design of a modelled economic evaluation of the impact of increased adherence to the polypill versus usual care among the UK UMPIRE participants. Methods and analysis: As recommended by the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and the Society for Medical Decision Making modelling guidelines, a review of published CVD models was undertaken to identify the most appropriate modelling approach and structure. The review was carried out in the electronic databases, MEDLINE and EMBASE. 40 CVD models were identified from 57 studies, the majority of economic models were health state transition cohort models and individual-level simulation models. The findings were discussed with clinical experts to confirm the approach and structure. An individual simulation approach was identified as the most suitable method to capture the heterogeneity in the population at CVD risk. RUPEE-NHS will use UMPIRE trial data on adherence to estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of the polypill strategy. Dissemination: The evaluation findings will be presented in open-access scientific and healthcare policy journals and at national and international conferences. We will also present findings to NHS policy makers and pharmaceutical companies