On the Practicality of Deterministic Epistemic Uncertainty

A set of novel approaches for estimating epistemic uncertainty in deep neural networks with a single forward pass has recently emerged as a valid alternative to Bayesian Neural Networks. On the premise of informative representations, these deterministic uncertainty methods (DUMs) achieve strong performance on detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) data while adding negligible computational costs at inference time. However, it remains unclear whether DUMs are well calibrated and can seamlessly scale to real-world applications - both prerequisites for their practical deployment. To this end, we first provide a taxonomy of DUMs, and evaluate their calibration under continuous distributional shifts. Then, we extend them to semantic segmentation. We find that, while DUMs scale to realistic vision tasks and perform well on OOD detection, the practicality of current methods is undermined by poor calibration under distributional shifts.Comment: International Conference on Machine Learning 202

{SHIFT}: {A} Synthetic Driving Dataset for Continuous Multi-Task Domain Adaptation

Adapting to a continuously evolving environment is a safety-critical challenge inevitably faced by all autonomous-driving systems. Existing image- and video-based driving datasets, however, fall short of capturing the mutable nature of the real world. In this paper, we introduce the largest multi-task synthetic dataset for autonomous driving, SHIFT. It presents discrete and continuous shifts in cloudiness, rain and fog intensity, time of day, and vehicle and pedestrian density. Featuring a comprehensive sensor suite and annotations for several mainstream perception tasks, SHIFT allows to investigate how a perception systems' performance degrades at increasing levels of domain shift, fostering the development of continuous adaptation strategies to mitigate this problem and assessing the robustness and generality of a model. Our dataset and benchmark toolkit are publicly available at www.vis.xyz/shift

Mechanisms of Transcranial Doppler Ultrasound phenotypes in paediatric cerebral malaria remain elusive.

BACKGROUND: Cerebral malaria (CM) results in significant paediatric death and neurodisability in sub-Saharan Africa. Several different alterations to typical Transcranial Doppler Ultrasound (TCD) flow velocities and waveforms in CM have been described, but mechanistic contributors to these abnormalities are unknown. If identified, targeted, TCD-guided adjunctive therapy in CM may improve outcomes. METHODS: This was a prospective, observational study of children 6 months to 12 years with CM in Blantyre, Malawi recruited between January 2018 and June 2021. Medical history, physical examination, laboratory analysis, electroencephalogram, and magnetic resonance imaging were undertaken on presentation. Admission TCD results determined phenotypic grouping following a priori definitions. Evaluation of the relationship between haemodynamic, metabolic, or intracranial perturbations that lead to these observed phenotypes in other diseases was undertaken. Neurological outcomes at hospital discharge were evaluated using the Paediatric Cerebral Performance Categorization (PCPC) score. RESULTS: One hundred seventy-four patients were enrolled. Seven (4%) had a normal TCD examination, 57 (33%) met criteria for hyperaemia, 50 (29%) for low flow, 14 (8%) for microvascular obstruction, 11 (6%) for vasospasm, and 35 (20%) for isolated posterior circulation high flow. A lower cardiac index (CI) and higher systemic vascular resistive index (SVRI) were present in those with low flow than other groups (p \u3c 0.003), though these values are normal for age (CI 4.4 [3.7,5] l/min/m2, SVRI 1552 [1197,1961] dscm-5m2). Other parameters were largely not significantly different between phenotypes. Overall, 118 children (68%) had a good neurological outcome. Twenty-three (13%) died, and 33 (19%) had neurological deficits. Outcomes were best for participants with hyperaemia and isolated posterior high flow (PCPC 1-2 in 77 and 89% respectively). Participants with low flow had the least likelihood of a good outcome (PCPC 1-2 in 42%) (p \u3c 0.001). Cerebral autoregulation was significantly better in children with good outcome (transient hyperemic response ratio (THRR) 1.12 [1.04,1.2]) compared to a poor outcome (THRR 1.05 [0.98,1.02], p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Common pathophysiological mechanisms leading to TCD phenotypes in non-malarial illness are not causative in children with CM. Alternative mechanistic contributors, including mechanical factors of the cerebrovasculature and biologically active regulators of vascular tone should be explored

Safety of lumbar puncture in comatose children with clinical features of cerebral malaria

Objective: We assessed the independent association of lumbar puncture (LP) and death in Malawian children admitted to the hospital with the clinical features of cerebral malaria (CM). Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study in Malawian children with clinical features of CM. Allocation to LP was nonrandom and was associated with severity of illness. Propensity score-based analyses were used to adjust for this bias and assess the independent association between LP and mortality. Results: Data were available for 1,075 children: 866 (80.6%) underwent LP and 209 (19.4%) did not. Unadjusted mortality rates were lower in children who underwent LP (15.3% vs 26.7% in the no-LP group) but differences in covariates between the 2 groups suggested bias in LP allocation. After propensity score matching, all covariates were balanced. Propensity score-based analyses showed no change in mortality rate associated with LP: by inverse probability weighting, the average risk reduction was 2.0% at 12 hours (95% confidence interval -1.5% to 5.5%, p = 0.27) and 1.7% during hospital admission (95% confidence interval -4.5% to 7.9%, p = 0.60). Undergoing LP did not change the risk of mortality in subanalyses of children with severe brain swelling on MRI or in those with papilledema. Conclusion: In comatose children with suspected CM who were clinically stable, we found no evidence that LP increases mortality, even in children with objective signs of raised intracranial pressur