Определение возможности развития угрожающего состояния у пациентов с диабетическим кетоацидозом

The aim of the research was to create a mathematical model for determining a possibility of the threatening condition development in patients with diabetic ketoacidosis using methods of mathematical statistics.Methods. There were examined 43 patients with diabetes mellitus decompensation, who underwent intensive therapy by the offered method. Patients were divided in two groups depending on the presence of the threatening condition: group 1 – patients without hepato-intestinal dysfunction (12 persons); group 2 –patients with hepato-intestinal dysfunction (31 persons). All indicators were registered at admission to the department of intensive care at first, third and fifth day after the treatment. The method of logistic regression was used for constructing the mathematical model.Results. There were revealed 5 most important indicators for determining the threatening condition, used as prognostic factors for estimating the complications probability. The model for assessing the data, used for ROC-analysis, was constructed.Conclusions. The elaborated mathematical model of the possibility of the threatening condition development in patients with DKA allows to diagnose not only dangerous tendencies in real time, but also to use medical strategies for preventing and restoring hepato-intestinal and multiple organ dysfunction in these patientsИсследование посвящено определению возможности развития угрожающего состояния у больных с диабетическим кетоацидозом. Разработана математическая модель прогнозирования риска развития гепато-интестинальной дисфункции/недостаточности. Полученные результаты математического моделирования могут быть использованы для углублённого понимания наиболее значимых патологических процессов у больных с диабетическим кетоацидозом, что позволит на более ранних сроках начинать их профилактику и лечени

Research of Influence of Medication Preparations on the Process of Renewal of the Broken Equilibrium of Man Organism on the Doctor of Phytotherapy Workstation

In the given work by authors new approach to the exposure of degree of influencing of medications of vegetable origin in a time of renewal of broken equilibrium of man organism is offered. During realization of the given approach it is suggested to use the mathematical vehicle of

Управління врожаєм винограду в Північно-Східному регіоні України з використанням математичного моделювання

In the practical cultivation of cultures, including grapes, prediction is an inherent attribute, since, under weather actions, it is possible to immediately take measures before one or another degree of the vegetation of culture is affected. In order to develop mathematical software of an information system for determining the probability of reduction in the yield of grapes, we observed the annual variation in temperatures. Moreover, to manage this process, its comparison was conducted with the development of grapevine by the phases of its development for 16 years. By employing the method of binary logistic regression, we revealed three most significant indicators (radiation background, the sum of efficient temperatures during flowering, annual total precipitation in the previous year), which were included into the mathematical model developed. The results obtained make it possible to estimate the risk of reduction in the harvest of grapes, which is grown under conditions of the Northeastern forest-steppe region of Ukraine (Kharkiv region). The developed model as a whole and its separate coefficients are statistically significant. It is also established that all the predictors, in accordance with the chi-squared test, impact the prediction of reduction in the yield of grape. The obtained results might be used when making a decision about the need of change in the agrotechnical methods for the purpose of improving productivity by changing the course of specific phases in the vegetation of grape. На основании установленной взаимосвязи между основными метеорологическими показателями и урожаем виноградной культуры, было разработано математическое обеспечение информационной системы для управления урожайностью. Такое управление позволяет влиять на агротехнические мероприятия с целью увеличения урожайности, путем изменения протекания определенных фаз вегетации виноградаНа підставі встановленого взаємозв'язку між основними метеорологічними показниками та врожаєм виноградної культури, було розроблено математичне забезпечення інформаційної системи для управління врожайністю. Таке управління дозволяє впливати на агротехнічні заходи з метою збільшення врожайності, шляхом зміни протікання певних фаз вегетації виноград

Математичне моделювання колорометричних параметрів для дистанційного контролю стану природних біоплато

An approach to the remote determination of the character of bioproduction processes in aquatic phytocenoses is proposed. The investigated plant communities can be used as natural bioplato for the elimination of biosafety threats to water consumption. The relevance of these studies is determined by the increased need for expanding the arsenal of methods for remote diagnosis of the states of natural systems that are important for biosafety provision. In particular – to ensure biosafety when using natural feed resources by waterfowls, which are a potential reservoir of bird flu.The similarity in the dynamics of the colorimetric parameters of phytocenoses and the Margalef’s succession model makes it possible to implement a new approach to the generation of productive working hypotheses for the development of remote methods for determining the state of bioproduction processes in natural bioplato. The proposed approach is based on the use of the class of mathematical models, which is called the discrete models of dynamic systems.Based on the structure of the correlations between the colorimetric components of space photographs of the plavni in the mouth of the river Danube, a description of the structure of the intercomponent and intracomponent relations of the massifs of semi-submerged higher aquatic plants has been obtained. The resulting structure of intercomponent relations allowed us to construct idealized trajectories reflecting the dynamic changes of the system. A unique constant inverse relationship between the parameter reflecting the amount of green chlorophyll pigment affecting the level of photosynthetic production and the parameter reflecting the amount of orange-red pigments in each of the possible matrices of the ratios of colorimetric parameters has been revealed. As a result of analysis of the dynamic aspects of the RGB model, the structure of the system color parameter is shown, which is the mean square deviation of the spread in the degree of alignment of parameter values reflecting the amount of green and orange-red pigments.As a result of analysis of the systemic colorimetric parameter of photographs of the section of the Danube plavni during various periods of the vegetative season, it is shown that it is advisable to use it as a marker of the risk of secondary water pollution, which can be used for remote determination of the state of bioproduction processes in natural bioplato.Представлены результаты моделирования межкомпонентных отношений колорометрических параметров естественных биоплато. В качестве исходных данных использованы космические снимки плавней в дельте Дуная. Предложено использовать системный колорометрический параметр, отражающий размах значений степени выровненности значений колорометрических параметров. Выделенные признаки позволяют дистанционно диагностировать состояние биопродукционных процессов естественных биоплатоПредставлені результати моделювання межкомпонентних відносин колорометричних параметрів природних біоплато. В якості вихідних даних використані космічні знімки плавнів в дельті Дунаю. Запропоновано використовувати системний колорометрический параметр, що відображає розмах значень ступеня вирівняності значень колорометричних параметрів. Виділені ознаки дозволяють дистанційно діагностувати стан біопродукційних процесів природних біоплат

Розробка методу прогнозування рецидивуючого інфаркту міокарда на основі інтерполяційного діагностичного поліному

In this paper, based on the estimations of expert opinions of the persons who make decisions, we determined a set of criteria for evaluation of the states of patients and of the classes of possible states for predicting the relapsing myocardial infarction. We propose a method for predicting the relapsing myocardial infarction on the basis of the designed interpolation diagnostic polynomial to determine the probability of occurence of the relapsing myocardial infarction. The developed method is based on the methodology of verbal decision analysis. This method makes it possible, taking into account the totality of attributes of disease, their combination and mutual effect, to increase the accuracy of prediction by 2,7 % (in comparison to the method-prototype). This provides a possibility to prevent the relapse of disease and sudden coronary death. The proposed method is of practical interest and may be applied for the diagnosis and prediction of development of other human cardiovascular system diseases. Представлен метод прогнозирования рецидивирующего инфаркта миокарда (РИМ) на основе разработанного интерполяционного диагностического полинома для определения возможности возникновения и исхода РИМ. Разработанный метод базируется на методологии вербального анализа решений и позволяет, с учетом совокупности признаков заболевания, их комбинации и взаимовлияния, повысить точность прогноза на 2,7 % (по сравнению с методом-прототипом), что дает возможность предупредить рецидив и внезапную коронарную смерть. Предложенный метод представляет практический интерес и может быть использован для диагностики и прогнозирования развития других заболеваний сердечно-сосудистой системы человекаПредставлено метод прогнозування рецидивуючого інфаркту міокарда (РІМ) на основі розробленого інтерполяційного діагностичного полінома для визначення можливості виникнення і результату РІМ. Розроблений метод базується на методології вербального аналізу рішень і дозволяє, з урахуванням сукупності ознак захворювання, їх комбінації і взаємовпливу, підвищити точність прогнозу на 2,7 % (у порівнянні з методом-прототипом), що надає можливість попередити рецидив і раптову коронарну смерть. Запропонований метод становить практичний інтерес і може бути використаний для діагностики та прогнозування розвитку інших захворювань серцево-судинної системи людин

Mathematical Modeling of the Colorimetric Parameters for Remote Control Over the State of Natural Bioplato

An approach to the remote determination of the character of bioproduction processes in aquatic phytocenoses is proposed. The investigated plant communities can be used as natural bioplato for the elimination of biosafety threats to water consumption. The relevance of these studies is determined by the increased need for expanding the arsenal of methods for remote diagnosis of the states of natural systems that are important for biosafety provision. In particular – to ensure biosafety when using natural feed resources by waterfowls, which are a potential reservoir of bird flu.The similarity in the dynamics of the colorimetric parameters of phytocenoses and the Margalef's succession model makes it possible to implement a new approach to the generation of productive working hypotheses for the development of remote methods for determining the state of bioproduction processes in natural bioplato. The proposed approach is based on the use of the class of mathematical models, which is called the discrete models of dynamic systems.Based on the structure of the correlations between the colorimetric components of space photographs of the plavni in the mouth of the river Danube, a description of the structure of the intercomponent and intracomponent relations of the massifs of semi-submerged higher aquatic plants has been obtained. The resulting structure of intercomponent relations allowed us to construct idealized trajectories reflecting the dynamic changes of the system. A unique constant inverse relationship between the parameter reflecting the amount of green chlorophyll pigment affecting the level of photosynthetic production and the parameter reflecting the amount of orange-red pigments in each of the possible matrices of the ratios of colorimetric parameters has been revealed. As a result of analysis of the dynamic aspects of the RGB model, the structure of the system color parameter is shown, which is the mean square deviation of the spread in the degree of alignment of parameter values reflecting the amount of green and orange-red pigments.As a result of analysis of the systemic colorimetric parameter of photographs of the section of the Danube plavni during various periods of the vegetative season, it is shown that it is advisable to use it as a marker of the risk of secondary water pollution, which can be used for remote determination of the state of bioproduction processes in natural bioplato

Developing a Method for Prediction of Relapsing Myocardial Infarction Based on Interpolation Diagnostic Polynomial

In this paper, based on the estimations of expert opinions of the persons who make decisions, we determined a set of criteria for evaluation of the states of patients and of the classes of possible states for predicting the relapsing myocardial infarction. We propose a method for predicting the relapsing myocardial infarction on the basis of the designed interpolation diagnostic polynomial to determine the probability of occurence of the relapsing myocardial infarction. The developed method is based on the methodology of verbal decision analysis. This method makes it possible, taking into account the totality of attributes of disease, their combination and mutual effect, to increase the accuracy of prediction by 2,7 % (in comparison to the method-prototype). This provides a possibility to prevent the relapse of disease and sudden coronary death. The proposed method is of practical interest and may be applied for the diagnosis and prediction of development of other human cardiovascular system diseases