A fuzzy approach to similarity in Case-Based Reasoning suitable to SQL implementation

The aim of this paper is to formally introduce a notion of acceptance and similarity, based on fuzzy logic, among case features in a case retrieval system. This is pursued by rst reviewing the relationships between distance-based similarity (i.e. the standard approach in CBR) and fuzzy-based similarity, with particular attention to the formalization of a case retrieval process based on fuzzy query specication. In particular, we present an approach where local acceptance relative to a feature can be expressed through fuzzy distributions on its domain, abstracting the actual values to linguistic terms. Furthermore, global acceptance is completely grounded on fuzzy logic, by means of the usual combinations of local distributions through specic dened norms. We propose a retrieval architecture, based on the above notions and realized through a fuzzy extension of SQL, directly implemented on a standard relational DBMS. The advantage of this approach is that the whole power of an SQL engine can be fully exploited, with no need of implementing specic retrieval algorithms. The approach is illustrated by means of some examples from a recommender system called MyWine, aimed at recommending the suitable wine bottles to a customer providing her requirements in both crisp and fuzzy way

ARPHA: an FDIR architecture for Autonomous Spacecrafts based on Dynamic Probabilistic Graphical Models

This paper introduces a formal architecture for on-board diagnosis, prognosis and recovery called ARPHA. ARPHA is designed as part of the ESA/ESTEC study called VERIFIM (Veri\ufb01cation of Failure Impact by Model checking). The goal is to allow the design of an innovative on-board FDIR process for autonomous systems, able to deal with uncertain system/environment interactions, uncertain dynamic system evolution, partial observability and detection of recovery actions taking into account imminent failures. We show how the model needed by ARPHA can be built through a standard fault analysis phase, \ufb01nally producing an extended version of a fault tree called EDFT; we discuss how EDFT can be adopted as a formal language to represent the needed FDIR knowledge, that can be compiled into a corresponding Dynamic Decision Network to be used for the analysis. We also discuss the software architecture we are implementing following this approach, where on-board FDIR can be implemented by exploiting on-line inference based on the junction tree approach typical of probabilisticgraphical models

A GSPN semantics for Continuous Time Bayesian Networks with Immediate Nodes

In this report we present an extension to Continuous Time Bayesian Networks (CTBN) called Generalized Continuous Time Bayesian Networks (GCTBN). The formalism allows one to model, in addition to continuous time delayed variables (with exponentially distributed transition rates), also non delayed or "immediate" variables, which act as standard chance nodes in a Bayesian Network. This allows the modeling of processes having both a continuous-time temporal component and an immediate (i.e. non-delayed) component capturing the logical/probabilistic interactions among the model\u2019s variables. The usefulness of this kind of model is discussed through an example concerning the reliability of a simple component-based system. A semantic model of GCTBNs, based on the formalism of Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets (GSPN) is outlined, whose purpose is twofold: to provide a well-de\ufb01ned semantics for GCTBNs in terms of the underlying stochastic process, and to provide an actual mean to perform inference (both prediction and smoothing) on GCTBNs. The example case study is then used, in order to highlight the exploitation of GSPN analysis for posterior probability computation on the GCTBN model

Decision Networks for modeling and analysis of attack/defense scenarios in critical infrastructures

We propose to exploit Decision Networks (DN) for the analysis of attack/defense scenarios. We show that DN extend both the modeling and the analysis capabilities of formalisms based on Attack Trees, which are the main reference model in such a context. Uncertainty can be addressed at every system level and a decision-theoretic analysis of the risk and of the selection of the best countermeasures can be implemented, by exploiting standard inference algorithms on DN

Evidence-Based Analysis of Cyber Attacks to Security Monitored Distributed Energy Resources

This work proposes an approach based on dynamic Bayesian networks to support the cybersecurity analysis of network-based controllers in distributed energy plants. We built a system model that exploits real world context information from both information and operational technology environments in the energy infrastructure, and we use it to demonstrate the value of security evidence for time-driven predictive and diagnostic analyses. The innovative contribution of this work is in the methodology capability of capturing the causal and temporal dependencies involved in the assessment of security threats, and in the introduction of security analytics supporting the configuration of anomaly detection platforms for digital energy infrastructures

Osteology and relationships of Rhinopycnodus gabriellae gen. et sp. nov. (Pycnodontiformes) from the marine Late Cretaceous of Lebanon

The osteology of Rhinopycnodus gabriellae gen. and sp. nov., a pycnodontiform fish from the marine Cenomanian (Late Cretaceous) of Lebanon, is studied in detail. This new fossil genus belongs to the family Pycnodontidae, as shown by the presence of a posterior brush-like process on its parietal. Its long and broad premaxilla, bearing one short and very broad tooth is the principal autapomorphy of this fish. Within the phylogeny of Pycnodontidae, Rhinopycnodus occupies an intermediate position between Ocloedus and Tepexichthys

Bayesian Belief Networks in Reliability

Tutorial tenuto al 58th Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS 2012