Reconciling diverse lacustrine and terrestrial system response to penultimate deglacial warming in southern Europe

Unlike the most recent deglaciation, the regional expression of climate changes during the penultimate deglaciation remains understudied, even though it led into a period of excess warmth with estimates of global average temperature 1–2 °C, and sea level ∼6 m, above pre-industrial values. We present the first complete high-resolution southern European diatom record capturing the penultimate glacial-interglacial transition, from Lake Ioannina (northwest Greece). It forms part of a suite of proxies selected to assess the character and phase relationships of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem response to rapid climate warming, and to resolve apparent conflicts in proxy evidence for regional paleohydrology. The diatom data suggest a complex penultimate deglaciation driven primarily by multiple oscillations in lake level, and provide firm evidence for the regional influence of abrupt changes in North Atlantic conditions. There is diachroneity in lake and terrestrial ecosystem response to warming at the onset of the last interglacial, with an abrupt increase in lake level occurring ∼2.7 k.y. prior to sustained forest expansion with peak precipitation. We identify the potentially important role of direct input of snow melt and glacial meltwater transfer to the subterranean karst system in response to warming, which would cause rising regional groundwater levels. This explanation, and the greater sensitivity of diatoms to subtle changes in temperature, reconciles the divergent lacustrine and terrestrial proxy evidence and highlights the sensitivity of lakes situated in mountainous karstic environments to past climate warming

An ice–climate oscillatory framework for Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles

Intermediate glacial states were characterized by large temperature changes in Greenland and the North Atlantic, referred to as Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) variability, with some transitions occurring over a few decades. D–O variability included changes in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), temperature changes of opposite sign and asynchronous timing in each hemisphere, shifts in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and variations in atmospheric CO2. Palaeorecords and numerical studies indicate that the AMOC, with a tight coupling to Nordic Seas sea ice, is central to D–O variability, yet, a complete theory remains elusive. In this Review, we synthesize the climatic expression and processes proposed to explain D–O cyclicity. What emerges is an oscillatory framework of the AMOC–sea-ice system, arising through feedbacks involving the atmosphere, cryosphere and the Earth’s biogeochemical system. Palaeoclimate observations indicate that the AMOC might be more sensitive to perturbations than climate models currently suggest. Tighter constraints on AMOC stability are, thus, needed to project AMOC changes over the coming century as a response to anthropogenic carbon emissions. Progress can be achieved by additional observational constraints and numerical simulations performed with coupled climate–ice-sheet models

Extreme glacial cooling likely led to hominin depopulation of Europe in the Early Pleistocene

The oldest known hominin remains in Europe [~1.5 to ~1.1 million years ago (Ma)] have been recovered from Iberia, where paleoenvironmental reconstructions have indicated warm and wet interglacials and mild glacials, supporting the view that once established, hominin populations persisted continuously. We report analyses of marine and terrestrial proxies from a deep-sea core on the Portugese margin that show the presence of pronounced millennial-scale climate variability during a glacial period ~1.154 to ~1.123 Ma, culminating in a terminal stadial cooling comparable to the most extreme events of the last 400,000 years. Climate envelope–model simulations reveal a drastic decrease in early hominin habitat suitability around the Mediterranean during the terminal stadial. We suggest that these extreme conditions led to the depopulation of Europe, perhaps lasting for several successive glacial-interglacial cycles

Fast and slow components of interstadial warming in the North Atlantic during the last glacial

The abrupt nature of warming events recorded in Greenland ice-cores during the last glacial has generated much debate over their underlying mechanisms. Here, we present joint marine and terrestrial analyses from the Portuguese Margin, showing a succession of cold stadials and warm interstadials over the interval 35–57 ka. Heinrich stadials 4 and 5 contain considerable structure, with a short transitional phase leading to an interval of maximum cooling and aridity, followed by slowly increasing sea-surface temperatures and moisture availability. A climate model experiment reproduces the changes in western Iberia during the final part of Heinrich stadial 4 as a result of the gradual recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. What emerges is that Greenland ice-core records do not provide a unique template for warming events, which involved the operation of both fast and slow components of the coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice system, producing adjustments over a range of timescales

Extreme glacial cooling likely led to hominin depopulation of Europe in the Early Pleistocene

The oldest known hominin remains in Europe [~1.5 to ~1.1 million years ago (Ma)] have been recovered from Iberia, where paleoenvironmental reconstructions have indicated warm and wet interglacials and mild glacials, supporting the view that once established, hominin populations persisted continuously. We report analyses of marine and terrestrial proxies from a deep-sea core on the Portugese margin that show the presence of pronounced millennial-scale climate variability during a glacial period ~1.154 to ~1.123 Ma, culminating in a terminal stadial cooling comparable to the most extreme events of the last 400,000 years. Climate envelope-model simulations reveal a drastic decrease in early hominin habitat suitability around the Mediterranean during the terminal stadial. We suggest that these extreme conditions led to the depopulation of Europe, perhaps lasting for several successive glacial-interglacial cycles.We gratefully acknowledge financial support from The Leverhulme Trust grant RPG-2014-417 (P.C.T., V.M., and D.A.H.); the Catalan Government, Research Group 2021SGR00986 (J.O.G.); IBS, South Korea grant IBS-R028-D1 (A.T., K.-S.Y., and H.K.); the Human Origins Research Fund (C.B.S.); and the Calleva Foundation (C.B.S., S.A.P., and N.M.A.).Peer reviewe

Fast and slow components of interstadial warming in the North Atlantic during the last glacial

Abstract: The abrupt nature of warming events recorded in Greenland ice-cores during the last glacial has generated much debate over their underlying mechanisms. Here, we present joint marine and terrestrial analyses from the Portuguese Margin, showing a succession of cold stadials and warm interstadials over the interval 35–57 ka. Heinrich stadials 4 and 5 contain considerable structure, with a short transitional phase leading to an interval of maximum cooling and aridity, followed by slowly increasing sea-surface temperatures and moisture availability. A climate model experiment reproduces the changes in western Iberia during the final part of Heinrich stadial 4 as a result of the gradual recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. What emerges is that Greenland ice-core records do not provide a unique template for warming events, which involved the operation of both fast and slow components of the coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice system, producing adjustments over a range of timescales

The marine isotope stage 1–5 cryptotephra record of Tenaghi Philippon, Greece:Towards a detailed tephrostratigraphic framework for the Eastern Mediterranean region

The iconic climate archive of Tenaghi Philippon (TP), NE Greece, allows the study of short-term palaeoclimatic and environmental change throughout the past 1.3 Ma. To provide high-quality age control for detailed palaeoclimate reconstructions based on the TP archive, (crypto)tephra studies of a peat core ‘TP-2005’ have been carried out for the 0–130 ka interval. The results show that the TP basin is ideally positioned to receive tephra fall from both the Italian and Aegean Arc volcanic provinces. Two visible tephra layers, the Santorini Cape Riva/Y-2 (c. 22 ka) and the Campanian Ignimbrite (CI)/Y-5 (c. 39.8 ka) tephras, and six primary cryptotephra layers, namely the early Holocene E1 tephra from the Aeolian Islands (c. 8.3 ka), the Campanian Y-3 (c. 29 ka) and X-6 tephras (c. 109.5 ka), as well as counterpart tephras TM-18-1d (c. 40.4 ka), TM-23-11 (c. 92.4 ka) and TM-33-1a (c. 116.7 ka) from the Lago Grande di Monticchio sequence (southern Italy), were identified along with repeatedly redeposited Y-2 and CI tephra material. Bayesian modelling of the ages of seven of the primary tephra layers, 60 radiocarbon measurements and 20 palynological control points have been applied to markedly improve the chronology of the TP archive. This revised chronology constrains the age of tephra TM-18-1d to 40.90–41.66 cal ka BP (95.4% range). Several tephra layers identified in the TP record form important isochrons for correlating this archive with other terrestrial (e.g., Lago Grande di Monticchio, Sulmona Basin and Lake Ohrid) and marine (e.g., Adriatic Sea core PRAD 1-2 and Aegean Sea core LC21) palaeoclimate records in the Mediterranean region

A 1.5-million-year record of orbital and millennial climate variability in the North Atlantic

Climate during the last glacial period was marked by abrupt instability on millennial timescales that included large swings of temperature in and around Greenland (Daansgard-Oeschger events) and smaller, more gradual changes in Antarctica (AIM events). Less is known about the existence and nature of similar variability during older glacial periods, especially during the early Pleistocene when glacial cycles were dominantly occurring at 41 kyr intervals compared to the much longer and deeper glaciations of the more recent period. Here, we report a continuous millennially resolved record of stable isotopes of planktic and benthic foraminifera at IODP Site U1385 (the "Shackleton Site") from the southwestern Iberian margin for the last 1.5 million years, which includes the Middle Pleistocene Transition (MPT). Our results demonstrate that millennial climate variability (MCV) was a persistent feature of glacial climate, both before and after the MPT. Prior to 1.2 Ma in the early Pleistocene, the amplitude of MCV was modulated by the 41 kyr obliquity cycle and increased when axial tilt dropped below 23.5° and benthic δ18O exceeded ∼3.8 ‰ (corrected to Uvigerina), indicating a threshold response to orbital forcing. Afterwards, MCV became focused mainly on the transitions into and out of glacial states (i.e. inceptions and terminations) and during times of intermediate ice volume. After 1.2 Ma, obliquity continued to play a role in modulating the amplitude of MCV, especially during times of glacial inceptions, which are always associated with declining obliquity. A non-linear role for obliquity is also indicated by the appearance of multiples (82, 123 kyr) and combination tones (28 kyr) of the 41 kyr cycle. Near the end of the MPT (∼0.65 Ma), obliquity modulation of MCV amplitude wanes as quasi-periodic 100 kyr and precession power increase, coinciding with the growth of oversized ice sheets on North America and the appearance of Heinrich layers in North Atlantic sediments. Whereas the planktic δ18O of Site U1385 shows a strong resemblance to Greenland temperature and atmospheric methane (i.e. Northern Hemisphere climate), millennial changes in benthic δ18O closely follow the temperature history of Antarctica for the past 800 kyr. The phasing of millennial planktic and benthic δ18O variation is similar to that observed for MIS 3 throughout much of the record, which has been suggested to mimic the signature of the bipolar seesaw - i.e. an interhemispheric asymmetry between the timing of cooling in Antarctica and warming in Greenland. The Iberian margin isotopic record suggests that bipolar asymmetry was a robust feature of interhemispheric glacial climate variations for at least the past 1.5 Ma despite changing glacial boundary conditions. A strong correlation exists between millennial increases in planktic δ18O (cooling) and decreases in benthic δ13C, indicating that millennial variations in North Atlantic surface temperature are mirrored by changes in deep-water circulation and remineralization of carbon in the abyssal ocean. We find strong evidence that climate variability on millennial and orbital scales is coupled across different timescales and interacts in both directions, which may be important for linking internal climate dynamics and external astronomical forcing

Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)

The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 ∘C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization