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Decreased monsoon precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere due to anthropogenic aerosols

The Northern Hemisphere monsoons are an integral component of Earth's hydrological cycle and affect the lives of billions of people. Observed precipitation in the monsoon regions underwent substantial changes during the second half of the 20th century, with drying from the 1950s to mid-1980s and increasing precipitation in recent decades. Modeling studies suggest anthropogenic aerosols has been a key factor driving changes in tropical and monsoon precipitation. Here we apply detection and attribution methods to determine whether observed changes are driven by human influences using fingerprints of individual forcings (i.e. greenhouse gas, anthropogenic aerosol and natural) derived from climate models. The results show that the observed changes can only be explained when including the influence of anthropogenic aerosols, even after accounting for internal climate variability. Anthropogenic aerosol, not greenhouse gas or natural forcing, has been the dominant influence on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation over the second half of the 20th century

Spike-and-Slab Priors for Function Selection in Structured Additive Regression Models

Structured additive regression provides a general framework for complex Gaussian and non-Gaussian regression models, with predictors comprising arbitrary combinations of nonlinear functions and surfaces, spatial effects, varying coefficients, random effects and further regression terms. The large flexibility of structured additive regression makes function selection a challenging and important task, aiming at (1) selecting the relevant covariates, (2) choosing an appropriate and parsimonious representation of the impact of covariates on the predictor and (3) determining the required interactions. We propose a spike-and-slab prior structure for function selection that allows to include or exclude single coefficients as well as blocks of coefficients representing specific model terms. A novel multiplicative parameter expansion is required to obtain good mixing and convergence properties in a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation approach and is shown to induce desirable shrinkage properties. In simulation studies and with (real) benchmark classification data, we investigate sensitivity to hyperparameter settings and compare performance to competitors. The flexibility and applicability of our approach are demonstrated in an additive piecewise exponential model with time-varying effects for right-censored survival times of intensive care patients with sepsis. Geoadditive and additive mixed logit model applications are discussed in an extensive appendix

Fluctuations of radiation from a chaotic laser below threshold

Radiation from a chaotic cavity filled with gain medium is considered. A set of coupled equations describing the photon density and the population of gain medium is proposed and solved. The spectral distribution and fluctuations of the radiation are found. The full noise is a result of a competition between positive correlations of photons with equal frequencies (due to stimulated emission and chaotic scattering) which increase fluctuations, and a suppression due to interaction with a gain medium which leads to negative correlations between photons. The latter effect is responsible for a pronounced suppression of the photonic noise as compared to the linear theory predictions.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures; expanded version, to appear in Phys. Rev.

The TIGRE gamma-ray telescope

TIGRE is an advanced telescope for gamma-ray astronomy with a few arcmin resolution. From 0.3 to 10 MeV it is a Compton telescope. Above 1 MeV, its multi-layers of double sided silicon strip detectors allow for Compton recoil electron tracking and the unique determination for incident photon direction. From 10 to 100 MeV the tracking feature is utilized for gamma-ray pair event reconstruction. Here we present TIGRE energy resolutions, background simulations and the development of the electronics readout system

Insufficient Reporting of Factors Associated with Exercise Referral Scheme Uptake, Attendance, and Adherence: A Systematic Review of Reviews

Background: Exercise Referral Schemes (ERS) are prescribed programmes aimed at tackling physical inactivity and associated non-communicable disease. Inconsistencies in reporting, recording and delivering ERS make it challenging to identify what works, why, and for whom. Methods: PRISMA guided this narrative review of reviews. Fifteen electronic databases were searched for systematic reviews of ERS. Reviewers applied inclusion criteria and quality assessed via the AMSTAR tool. Data on uptake, attendance and adherence were extracted. Results: Eleven reviews met the inclusion criteria. AMSTAR quality was medium. Definitions of uptake varied within reviews. Uptake ranged from 35%-81%. Groups reported as more likely to take up ERS included, (i) females and (ii) older adults. Attendance was defined variably but ranged from 12%-49%. Men were more likely to attend ERS. Effect of medical diagnosis upon uptake and attendance was inconsistent. Exercises prescribed were unreported and therefore, adherence to exercise prescriptions was unreported. The influence of theoretically-informed approaches on uptake, attendance and adherence was generally lacking, however, self-determination, peer support and supervision support were reported as influencing attendance. Conclusions: There was insufficient reporting across studies about uptake, attendance and adherence. Complex interventions like ERS require consistent definitions, recording and reporting of these key facets, but this is not evident from the existing literature

Freezing by Monte Carlo Phase-Switch

We describe a Monte Carlo procedure which allows sampling of the disjoint configuration spaces associated with crystalline and fluid phases, within a single simulation. The method utilises biased sampling techniques to enhance the probabilities of gateway states (in each phase) which are such that a global switch (to the other phase) can be implemented. Equilibrium freezing-point parameters can be determined directly; statistical uncertainties prescribed transparently; and finite-size effects quantified systematically. The method is potentially quite general; we apply it to the freezing of hard spheres.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figure

Have greenhouse gases intensified the contrast between wet and dry regions?

While changes in land precipitation during the last 50 years have been attributed in part to human influences, results vary by season, are affected by data uncertainty and do not account for changes over ocean. One of the more physically robust responses of the water cycle to warming is the expected amplification of existing patterns of precipitation minus evaporation. Here, precipitation changes in wet and dry regions are analyzed from satellite data for 1988–2010, covering land and ocean. We derive fingerprints for the expected change from climate model simulations that separately track changes in wet and dry regions. The simulations used are driven with anthropogenic and natural forcings combined, and greenhouse gas forcing or natural forcing only. Results of detection and attribution analysis show that the fingerprint of combined external forcing is detectable in observations and that this intensification of the water cycle is partly attributable to greenhouse gas forcing