Permutation sampling in Path Integral Monte Carlo

A simple algorithm is described to sample permutations of identical particles in Path Integral Monte Carlo (PIMC) simulations of continuum many-body systems. The sampling strategy illustrated here is fairly general, and can be easily incorporated in any PIMC implementation based on the staging algorithm. Although it is similar in spirit to an existing prescription, it differs from it in some key aspects. It allows one to sample permutations efficiently, even if long paths (e.g., hundreds, or thousands of slices) are needed. We illustrate its effectiveness by presenting results of a PIMC calculation of thermodynamic properties of superfluid Helium-four, in which a very simple approximation for the high-temperature density matrix was utilized

A flexible method for optimising sharing of healthcare resources and demand in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

As the number of cases of COVID-19 continues to grow, local health services are at risk of being overwhelmed with patients requiring intensive care. We develop and implement an algorithm to provide optimal re-routing strategies to either transfer patients requiring Intensive Care Units (ICU) or ventilators, constrained by feasibility of transfer. We validate our approach with realistic data from the United Kingdom and Spain. In the UK, we consider the National Health Service at the level of trusts and define a 4-regular geometric graph which indicates the four nearest neighbours of any given trust. In Spain we coarse-grain the healthcare system at the level of autonomous communities, and extract similar contact networks. Through random search optimisation we identify the best load sharing strategy, where the cost function to minimise is based on the total number of ICU units above capacity. Our framework is general and flexible allowing for additional criteria, alternative cost functions, and can be extended to other resources beyond ICU units or ventilators. Assuming a uniform ICU demand, we show that it is possible to enable access to ICU for up to 1000 additional cases in the UK in a single step of the algorithm. Under a more realistic and heterogeneous demand, our method is able to balance about 600 beds per step in the Spanish system only using local sharing, and over 1300 using countrywide sharing, potentially saving a large percentage of these lives that would otherwise not have access to ICU

The XMM-Newton EPIC X-ray Light Curve Analysis of WR 6

We obtained four pointings of over 100 ks each of the well-studied Wolf-Rayet star WR 6 with the XMM-Newton satellite. With a first paper emphasizing the results of spectral analysis, this follow-up highlights the X-ray variability clearly detected in all four pointings. However, phased light curves fail to confirm obvious cyclic behavior on the well-established 3.766 d period widely found at longer wavelengths. The data are of such quality that we were able to conduct a search for "event clustering" in the arrival times of X-ray photons. However, we fail to detect any such clustering. One possibility is that X-rays are generated in a stationary shock structure. In this context we favor a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) and present a phenomenological model for X-rays from a CIR structure. We show that a CIR has the potential to account simultaneously for the X-ray variability and constraints provided by the spectral analysis. Ultimately, the viability of the CIR model will require both intermittent long-term X-ray monitoring of WR 6 and better physical models of CIR X-ray production at large radii in stellar winds.Comment: to appear in Ap

Selecting and implementing overview methods: implications from five exemplar overviews

This is the final version of the article. Available from BioMed Central via the DOI in this record.Background Overviews of systematic reviews are an increasingly popular method of evidence synthesis; there is a lack of clear guidance for completing overviews and a number of methodological challenges. At the UK Cochrane Symposium 2016, methodological challenges of five overviews were explored. Using data from these five overviews, practical implications to support methodological decision making of authors writing protocols for future overviews are proposed. Methods Methods, and their justification, from the five exemplar overviews were tabulated and compared with areas of debate identified within current literature. Key methodological challenges and implications for development of overview protocols were generated and synthesised into a list, discussed and refined until there was consensus. Results Methodological features of three Cochrane overviews, one overview of diagnostic test accuracy and one mixed methods overview have been summarised. Methods of selection of reviews and data extraction were similar. Either the AMSTAR or ROBIS tool was used to assess quality of included reviews. The GRADE approach was most commonly used to assess quality of evidence within the reviews. Eight key methodological challenges were identified from the exemplar overviews. There was good agreement between our findings and emerging areas of debate within a recent published synthesis. Implications for development of protocols for future overviews were identified. Conclusions Overviews are a relatively new methodological innovation, and there are currently substantial variations in the methodological approaches used within different overviews. There are considerable methodological challenges for which optimal solutions are not necessarily yet known. Lessons learnt from five exemplar overviews highlight a number of methodological decisions which may be beneficial to consider during the development of an overview protocol.The overview conducted by Pollock [19] was supported by a project grant from the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government. The overview conducted by McClurg [21] was supported by a project grant by the Physiotherapy Research Foundation. The overview by Hunt [22] was supported as part of doctoral programme funding by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care South West Peninsula (PenCLAHRC). The overview conducted by Estcourt [20] was supported by an NIHR Cochrane Programme Grant for the Safe and Appropriate Use of Blood Components. The overview conducted by Brunton [23] was commissioned by the Department of Health as part of an ongoing programme of work on health policy research synthesis. Alex Pollock is employed by the Nursing, Midwifery and Allied Health Professions (NMAHP) Research Unit, which is supported by the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government. Pauline Campbell is supported by the Chief Nurses Office of the Scottish Government

Comparison of two non-primitive methods for path integral simulations: Higher-order corrections vs. an effective propagator approach

Two methods are compared that are used in path integral simulations. Both methods aim to achieve faster convergence to the quantum limit than the so-called primitive algorithm (PA). One method, originally proposed by Takahashi and Imada, is based on a higher-order approximation (HOA) of the quantum mechanical density operator. The other method is based upon an effective propagator (EPr). This propagator is constructed such that it produces correctly one and two-particle imaginary time correlation functions in the limit of small densities even for finite Trotter numbers P. We discuss the conceptual differences between both methods and compare the convergence rate of both approaches. While the HOA method converges faster than the EPr approach, EPr gives surprisingly good estimates of thermal quantities already for P = 1. Despite a significant improvement with respect to PA, neither HOA nor EPr overcomes the need to increase P linearly with inverse temperature. We also derive the proper estimator for radial distribution functions for HOA based path integral simulations.Comment: 17 pages, latex, 6 postscript figure

Parents as Critical Influence: Insights from Five Different Studies

Parents play a number of roles in engineering education: they can motivate children’s interest in engineering in early childhood, as well as later when their child is in the process of selecting a major at college, they can provide support in learning engineering concepts and thinking skills, and can serve as role models if they themselves are engineers. Several empirical studies have shown that parents play a significant role in the occupational aspiration and career goal development of their children. In addition,parents’ own beliefs and aspirations have been found to be important factors in children’s career and academic aspirations. In recent reviews regarding children’s career development, parents were highlighted as crucial and important figures in developing occupational awareness in their children. Additionally children have more understanding of the parents’ occupations than other occupations. Retrospective studies have also revealed that parents are a significant motivator, especially for low socio-economic students to enter into engineering. Finally, parents can provide scaffolding and other support as children learn engineering concepts and skills.Using multi-case analysis, this paper will examine the role of parents in engineering education through five distinct studies. The first study, GRADIENT, looks at how parents engage in an engineering activity with girls aged 3-11 within two different informal settings and how parent gender has an impact on their interactions. The Informal Pathways to Engineering (IPE) project investigates how informal engineering programs support engineering-related learning over time with middle school students and their support system of parents, teachers and other informal educators. The INFUSE study looks at conversations between engineering parents and their children while reading an engineering storybook. A fourth study examines how intersectionality influenced the experiences of nine female students in high school engineering where the interview data from the students and their parents reveal that institutions of race, class, and gender within their families play a significant role in these young women\u27s interest in and entry into engineering. The last study investigates the different ways that parents with an engineering background help their children to learn about engineering via interviews with the parents.The collection of these five studies provides unique insights into and a more comprehensive understanding of the ways that parents can and do play roles in PreK-12th grade students’ engineering education

Evaluating monitoring methods for cetaceans

With increasing human pressures on wildlife comes a responsibility to monitor them effectively, particularly in an environment of declining research funds. Scarce funding resources compromise the level and efficacy of monitoring possible to detect trends in abundance, highlighting the priority for developing cost-effective programs. A systematic and rigorous sampling regime was developed to estimate abundance of a small, genetically isolated spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) population exposed to high levels of human activities. Five monitoring scenarios to detect trends in abundance were evaluated by varying sampling effort, precision, power, and sampling interval. Scenario 1 consisted of monthly surveys, each of 12 days, used to obtain the initial two consecutive annual abundance estimates. Scenarios 2, 3, and 4 consisted of a reduced effort, while Scenario 5 doubled the effort of Scenario 1. Scenarios with the greatest effort (1 and 5) produced the most precise abundance estimates (CV = 0.09). Using a CV = 0.09 and power of 80%, it would take 9 years to detect a 5% annual change in abundance compared with 12 years at a power of 95%. Under this best-case monitoring scenario, if the trend was a decline, the population would have decreased by 37% and 46%, respectively, prior to detection of a significant decline: With the potential of a large decline in a small population prior to detection, the lower power level should be used to trigger a management intervention. The approach presented here is applicable across taxa for which individuals can be identified, including terrestrial and aquatic mammals, birds, and reptiles