WALS estimation and forecasting in factor-based dynamic models with an application to Armenia

Two model averaging approaches are used and compared in estimating and forecasting dynamic factor models, the well-known BMA and the recently developed WALS. Both methods propose to combine frequentist estimators using Bayesian weights. We apply our framework to the Armenian economy using quarterly data from 2000–2010, and we estimate and forecast real GDP and inflation dynamics.Dynamic models;Factor analysis;Model averaging;Monte Carlo;Armenia

Structural versus Matching Estimation: Transmission Mechanisms in Armenia

Opting for structural or reduced form estimation is often hard to justify if one wants to both learn about the structure of the economy and obtain accurate predictions. In this paper, we show that using both structural and reduced form estimates simultaneously can lead to more accurate policy predictions. Our findings are based on using new information criteria whose econometric properties allow us to pick for both methods the impulse responses that are valid and relevant for prediction. We illustrate our findings in the context of analyzing the monetary transmission mechanism for Armenia. Based on picking valid and relevant information from both structural and reduced form matching estimation, our findings suggest that the interest rate targeting and the exchange rate channel are well specified and strongly reinforce each other in promoting the recent double-digit growth Armenia experienced before the crisis.Armenia;monetary policy;structural model;GMM and MDE estimation;information criteria;valid and relevant IRFs

Measurement of π\pi, K, p transverse momentum spectra with ALICE in proton-proton collisions at s=\sqrt{s} = 0.9 and 7 TeV

Results of the measurement of the $\pi$, K, p transverse momentum ($p_{\mathrm{t}}$) spectra at mid-rapidity in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 7$ TeV are presented. Particle identification was performed using the energy loss signal in the Inner Tracking System (ITS) and the Time Projection Chamber (TPC), while information from the Time-of-Flight (TOF) detector was used to identify particles at higher transverse momentum. From the spectra at $\sqrt{s} = 7$ TeV the mean transverse momentum ($$) and particle ratios were extracted and compared to results obtained for collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 0.9$ TeV and lower energies.Comment: Quark Matter 2011 proceeding

Diffraction dissociation in proton-proton collisions at s\sqrt{s} = 0.9 TeV, 2.76 TeV and 7 TeV with ALICE at the LHC

The relative rates of single- and double- diffractive processes were measured with the ALICE detector by studying properties of gaps in the pseudorapidity distribution of particles produced in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 0.9 TeV, 2.76 TeV and 7 TeV. ALICE triggering efficiencies are determined for various classes of events, using a detector simulation validated with data on inclusive particle production. Cross-sections are determined using van der Meer scans to measure beam properties and obtain a measurement of the luminosity

The influence of quark matter at high densities on binary neutron star mergers

We consider the influence of potential quark matter existing at high densities in neutron star (NS) interiors on gravitational waves (GWs) emitted in a binary NS merger event. Two types of equations of state (EoSs) at zero temperature are used - one describing pure nuclear matter and the other nuclear matter with a phase transition to quark matter at very high densities. Binary equilibrium sequences close to the innermost stable circular orbit (ISCO) are calculated to determine the GW frequencies just before the merger. It is found that the effects of the EoSs begin to play a role when gravitational masses are larger than M∞≃ 1.5 M⊙. The difference in the GW frequency at the ISCO increases by up to ≃10 per cent for the maximum mass permitted by the EoSs. We then perform three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations for each EoS while varying the initial mass and determine the characteristic GW frequencies of the merger remnant. The implications of the presence of quark matter show up mainly in the collapse behaviour of the merger remnant. If the collapse does not take place immediately after the merger, we find a phase difference between the two EoSs in the post-merger GW signal. We also compare the GW frequencies emitted by the remnant of the merger to values obtained from simulations using a polytropic EoS and find an imprint of the non-constant adiabatic index of our EoSs. All calculations are based on the conformally flat approximation to general relativity and the GW signal from the merger simulation is extracted up to quadrupole orde

The Influence of Quark Matter at High Densities on Binary Neutron Star Mergers

We consider the influence of potential quark matter existing at high densities in neutron star interiors on gravitational waves (GW) emitted in a binary neutron star merger event. Two types of equations of state (EoS) at zero temperatures are used, one describing pure nuclear matter, the other nuclear matter with a phase transition to quark matter at very high densities. Binary equilibrium sequences close to the innermost stable circular orbit (ISCO) are calculated to determine the GW frequencies just before merger. It is found that EoS effects begin to play a role for gravitational masses larger than $M_\infty\simeq1.5M_\odot$. The difference in the gravitational wave frequency at the ISCO grows to up to $\simeq 10$ for the maximal allowed mass given by the EoSs used. Then, we perform 3D hydrodynamic simulations for each EoS varying the initial mass and determine the characteristic GW frequencies of the merger remnants. The implications of quark matter show up mainly in a different collapse behaviour of the merger remnant. If the collapse does not take place immediately after merger, we find a phase difference between two EoS's in the post-merger GW signal. We also compare the GW frequencies emitted by the merger remnant to values from simulations using a polytropic EoS and find an imprint of the non-constant adiabatic index of our EoSs. All calculations are based on the conformally flat (CF) approximation to general relativity and the GW signal from the merger simulation is extracted up to quadrupole order.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figure

Modelling and Forecasting Domestic Tourism. Case Study from Armenia

This paper summarizes the arguments and counterarguments within the scientific discussion on the issue of modelling and forecasting domestic tourism. During Covid-19 many countries tried to develop domestic tourism as an alternative to inbound tourism. In Armenia domestic tourism has grown recently, and in 2020 the decrease was 33% compared to last year. The main purpose of the research is to model and forecast domestic tourism growth in Armenia

Quark Matter in Neutron Star Mergers

Binary neutron star mergers are expected to be one of the most promising source of gravitational waves (GW) for the network of laser interferometric and bar detectors becoming operational in the next few years. The merger wave signal is expected to be sensitive to the interior structure of the neutron star (NS). The structure of high density phases of matter is under current experimental investigation in heavy-ion collisions. We investigate the dependence of the merger process and its GW signal on the presence of quarks in these phases by performing numerical simulations, where the smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method and the conformally flat approximation for the 3-geometry in general relativistic gravity are implemented.Comment: 4 Pages, 4 Figures, Proc. Nuclei in the Cosmos 7, 200