Role of wave forcing, storms and nao in outer bar dynamics on a high-energy, macro-tidal beach

EPSRC funded. NERC–RNLI partnership grant NE/H004262/1 The full text is under embargo until 02.08.15 NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Geomorphology. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Geomorphology, [VOL 226, (02.08.14)] DOI 10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.07.02

Coastal wave overtopping: New Nowcast and monitoring technologies

It is projected that global mean sea level could rise up to 1 m this century with a strong regional pattern. It is estimated that 20% of England's coastal defenses could fail under just half this rise. Ambitious climate mitigation and adaptation plans may protect 400,000 - 500,000 people, but flood and coastal erosion risks cannot be fully eliminated. Building coastal climate resilience requires accurate wave overtopping prediction tools and nowcast information to prepare for and respond to coastal hazards. In Dawlish, SW England, a new monitoring system to measure concurrent beach level and wave overtopping conditions over a 1-year period was installed. The system obtains in-situ measurements of the inland wave overtopping distribution across a public walkway and railway line, and issues near real-time overtopping data to the British Oceanographic Data Centre, making it accessible online within 15 minutes of detection. This public web service also ingests near-real time wave and water level data from existing national coastal monitoring networks, providing a full dataset to validate and calibrate an operational wave, water-level and overtopping forecast system. Using these data, the numerical forecasts have been refined by incorporating recent beach levels to reduce the uncertainty in the wave overtopping predictions due to seasonal variability in the beach level at the toe of the sea wall

Rising Population Cost for Treating People Living with HIV in the UK, 1997-2013

Background The number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) is increasing in the UK. This study estimated the annual population cost of providing HIV services in the UK, 1997–2006 and projected them 2007–2013. Methods Annual cost of HIV treatment for PLHIV by stage of HIV infection and type of ART was calculated (UK pounds, 2006 prices). Population costs were derived by multiplying the number of PLHIV by their annual cost for 1997–2006 and projected 2007–2013. Results Average annual treatment costs across all stages of HIV infection ranged from £17,034 in 1997 to £18,087 in 2006 for PLHIV on mono-therapy and from £27,649 in 1997 to £32,322 in 2006 for those on quadruple-or-more ART. The number of PLHIV using NHS services rose from 16,075 to 52,083 in 2006 and was projected to increase to 78,370 by 2013. Annual population cost rose from £104 million in 1997 to £483 million in 2006, with a projected annual cost between £721 and £758 million by 2013. When including community care costs, costs increased from £164 million in 1997, to £683 million in 2006 and between £1,019 and £1,065 million in 2013. Conclusions Increased number of PLHIV using NHS services resulted in rising UK population costs. Population costs are expected to continue to increase, partly due to PLHIV's longer survival on ART and the relative lack of success of HIV preventing programs. Where possible, the cost of HIV treatment and care needs to be reduced without reducing the quality of services, and prevention programs need to become more effective. While high income countries are struggling to meet these increasing costs, middle- and lower-income countries with larger epidemics are likely to find it even more difficult to meet these increasing demands, given that they have fewer resources